MLB pick’em today turns to Underdog Fantasy for the best value on the slate, though several of the top plays are coming from the early-afternoon games. As such, today’s Underdog MLB pick has just two plays for a standard payout of 3x (both have to hit to cash that). That also means an insured play is not allowed since that requires three picks. Let’s dive into some MLB pick’em action.
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MLB Underdog Pick’em Predictions | Sept. 13
Paul Blackburn O/U 3.5 Strikeouts
The WHIP and hits per nine may not reflect it, but Blackburn has been an above-average pitcher in 2023. His 3.56 FIP and 106 ERA+ are both solid, as are his 9.2 strikeouts per nine and 23.1% strikeout rate. There have undoubtedly been blowups — six games of four-plus earned runs — and the Athletics’ garbage offense has led to Blackburn compiling just a 4-4 record in 17 starts. However, he has still struck out at least four batters in 14 of those 17.
Frankly, this line makes little sense. Blackburn is at worst a 4.5-strikeout pitcher, even against the Astros, who have MLB’s second-best OPS over the last 15 days. That — plus the fact they have struck out the fewest times in that span — has nuked Blackburn’s line enough that it is now a bit disrespectful. Blackburn faced the Astros in July and struck out five in 5.1 innings. Granted, that was a different Houston team, but 3.5 is still too low. Stokastic is projecting 4.4 strikeouts and a 54% win expectancy on the over.
Best MLB Underdog Play: Paul Blackburn Over 3.5 Strikeouts
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Jordan Lawlar O/U 0.5 Total Bases
The great thing about this play is Lawlar is the No. 1 prospect in the Diamondbacks system and is getting a 0.5 line. The bad news is he has just 14 major league plate appearances, most of which have gone poorly — Lawlar has just a lone hit so far. The bat will come around eventually, as Lawlar posted a .874 OPS in 105 games across Double- and Triple-A; the question is whether or not that will start tonight.
Lawlar profiles as eventually having a strong hit tool and power, and he also has high-end speed that opens up the opportunity for infield hits. Plus, Lawlar gets a matchup with Joey Lucchesi, a serviceable but unspectacular lefty who allows a bit more contact to right-handed hitters. Stokastic is projecting Lawlar to get off the schneid and fully kick his career into gear, giving him 1.5 total bases and a 54% chance of knocking at least one hit.
Best MLB Underdog Play: Jordan Lawlar Over 0.5 Total Bases
