The NBA is back with a six-game slate on Thursday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jose Alvarado.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Giannis Antetokounmpo: Orlando Magic-Milwaukee Bucks
It’s always nice to be able to roster Giannis Antetokounmpo at low ownership, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $11,000. Having recently been upgraded to probable, Giannis comes into tonight’s action averaging 30.6 points, 11.1 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. While Giannis is clearly still an elite fantasy producer, the field isn’t overly interested in spending $11,000 on him tonight.
As of this writing, Giannis is projected to be only 7.90% owned on DraftKings but has an optimal percentage of 11.30%, making him a great differentiator in tournaments. Giannis’ ownership will rise as we get more injury news and value emerges, but his $11,000 price tag is currently difficult to get to, and that’s evident by the field getting to him at such a low rate. Make sure to watch Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows to stay up on all the news leading up to lock.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Alex Caruso: San Antonio Spurs-Chicago Bulls
Alex Caruso is the top mid-tier contrarian play on DraftKings at $6,100. Although there might be some sticker shock seeing Caruso with such a high price tag, nearly every player on the slate has been priced up, making Caruso’s tag much more palatable. Caruso finds himself in a dream spot against the Spurs, and he looks great in tournaments on DraftKings.
Stokastic’s tools currently have Caruso optimal 5.50% of the time, but he has just a 2.70% ownership projection. With Caruso a bit too expensive for his median outcome, the field is opting for other players in his price range. In GPPs, however, it’s important to embrace the variance, and Caruso has higher upside than usual in a matchup with the Spurs.
Contrarian Value — Jose Alvarado: New Orleans Pelicans-Cleveland Cavaliers
While the Cleveland side of this game will have a ton of popular cheap plays tonight, the Pelicans’ Jose Alvarado is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $4,200. Alvarado has been a key cog in New Orleans’ rotation, and he’s not getting any love on DraftKings, with other value plays projecting for slightly more fantasy points.
While these numbers will change, as New Orleans is on a back-to-back with a bunch of questionable players, Alvarado is currently the third-highest-graded leverage play on the slate at his cheap $4,200 price tag. Alvarado is currently projected to be optimal 7.60% of the time this slate happens on DraftKings. With only 3.10% of the field projected to roster him, it’s obvious why Alvarado looks so good from a leverage standpoint.
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