There are 12 games on the NHL slate tonight that features all the heavy hitters like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, and Roman Josi. It could leave cheaper options a bit overlooked so let’s dig into those, and then find some lower-cost value. Before we get to our NHL DFS picks today, ss always, Stokastic members are encouraged to double-check the Discord before lock for updated roster information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Aleksander Barkov (FLA vs. STL): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,600
One issue with Barkov’s production so far this season is having just eight power play points in 28 games played, pacing for roughly 23 PPPs in a full campaign; he averaged 33 PPPs per 82 games across his prior three seasons. That may not hurt him that much tonight as St. Louis is the second-least penalized team in the league this season on a per-game basis. Without that high-end PP production, Barkov has still out-produced similar centers like Brayden Point and Tage Thompson by DK points per game.
The Blues visiting the Panthers presents a great 5-on-5 matchup for Barkov. St. Louis is giving up the fourth-most shots and third-most goals per minute at that strength this season, and they’ve allowed 11 goals in three games since firing their coach. Barkov is averaging 12.6 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in the month of December, so he’s been offering a lot of shot volume as his line continues its dominance.
Stokastic projections have Barkov as the seventh center on the slate by fantasy points on both sites, but he is ninth by cost on DK and 12th over on FD. It gives him decent value relative to that point projection, so he can be used by himself in tournaments or, preferably, in a Florida line stack.
Nazem Kadri (CGY at ANH): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $6,300
Kadri is shooting 7.9% so far this season, a three-year low. A culprit is the inefficiency on the power play as he’s shooting 7.1% with the man advantage, down from 16.9% in his first year with Calgary and 11% in his last year with Colorado. Calgary’s power play has struggled all season long, but Kadri and the Flames will get a chance to turn their fortunes around against the most penalized team in the league – Anaheim allows 0.8 more power plays per game to the opponent than the next-closest team, a gap as a large as 2nd-place and 20th-place by the same measure.
The veteran center is shooting the puck more of late, which is key to his DFS value. Kadri’s last four weeks have seen him take 21.3 shot attempts per 60 minutes, a rate that is 37% higher than the next-closest regular Flames forward in that span. He has three DK shot bonuses in his last seven games alone, landing 30 shots on target in that span.
Of all centers priced under $6,000 on DK and $7,000 on FD, Kadri ranks second and third, respectively, by point-per-dollar value on the two sites. It gives him good point-per-dollar value regardless of where he’s rostered and he’s outside the top-10 centers by ownership projection. He can be used as a one-off option on the slate, but is acceptable in a line stack.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Matt Boldy (MIN vs. MTL): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $6,300
Though he was scoring often after Minnesota replaced their coach, Boldy wasn’t getting much ice time (for his talent level) by averaging 15:07 per outing over a seven-game span. That has reversed itself of late as he’s averaged 19:51 per game over his last four games and crossed the 18-minute mark in each of those four appearances. The production hasn’t been as high, but adding nearly four minutes in ice time is a large, positive change for his DFS profile that should help his shot volume in the long-term.
For tonight, the matchup with Montreal is a positive one at all strengths for Boldy. With the Wild at home, his line will avoid the shutdown matchup from the road team, and the Canadiens have allowed 21% more shots against at 5-on-5 with their top line off the ice in December. They are also allowing the seventh-most shots per minute while short-handed this month, so this is a matchup where Boldy and his line mates should have an advantage in all situations.
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Boldy carries a top-10 fantasy point projection among all wingers, regardless of price. He is nowhere close to top-10 by salary among wingers on either site, so he has very high point-per-dollar values. He will likely be one of the highest-owned flanks on this slate for that reason, so tournament players have a decision to make, but there is cash-game value on Boldy.
Jeff Skinner (BUF vs. TOR): DraftKings – $5,900 | FanDuel – $6,700
Returning from injury, Skinner adds a significant piece to a lineup that has seen significant injury issues this season. Over his last 11 games (including one he left early due to that injury), Skinner has averaged 23.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes, and no other regular Sabres forward has been over 19.5. He has landed 45 shots on target over his last 10 full games, managing a DK shot bonus in four of them. On the season, he sits at 3.6 shots per game, which would be the highest mark for him over a full season in a decade.
Buffalo’s team defense has fallen off but the same can be said for their opponent; Toronto has given up the sixth-most expected goals against at 5-on-5 over their last 20 games, and fifth-most over their last 10 games. With Buffalo’s top line healthy and assembled, they have a good home matchup to create offense at 5-on-5. On top of that, Toronto’s penalty kill has been middle-of-the-road over that 20-game stretch, so that is not an overly difficult matchup, either.
At a similar price point to Boldy, Skinner makes a nice differentiator in tournament formats. Skinner has an ownership projection under 2% on DK and 7% on FD, and that is considerably lower than the Minnesota wingers. Make sure Skinner is playing – funny things can happen with a player returning from injury – but his low ownership and solid value makes him (and his line mates) good tournament options.
Mattias Maccelli (ARI at SJ): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel -$5,400
Since the start of last season, Maccelli sits 12th out of the league’s regular forwards in assists per minute at 5-on-5 and that puts him in the 96th percentile of those forwards. The problem in DFS is he’s not been a player that has typically taken many shots, something that is vital to the DFS profile of almost any skater. He has started earning a lot more ice time over the last month, though, averaging 18:39 per night and that has helped him land 37 shots in 13 games since November 22nd. He has three goals, four assists, and 29 shots in nine games in December alone.
Maccelli’s line has been good all season and their last 10 games has seen them create over 3.0 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Add that well-above-average shot quality generation on top of the big increase in ice time, and Maccelli is not the same player he was a year ago. He is even getting a reasonable amount of power play time by averaging over two minutes per game across the last three weeks.
It is a night with very good value on Maccelli as his point-per-$1,000 on DK, per Stokastic fantasy point projections, is close to 2.4 on DK and 2.3 on FD. His ownership is very reasonable, landing in the 5-6% range from the projections, so he can be used as a cheap flank in any format.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Evan Bouchard (EDM at NJ): DraftKings – $6,800 | FanDuel – $8,300
Bouchard has been one of the most reliable defensemen in DFS this season as just seven of his 29 games have seen single-digit DraftKings fantasy point performances. By comparison, Nashville’s Roman Josi has landed in single-digit DK points in 14 of his 32 games. Bouchard is averaging 3.1 shots and 1.4 blocks per game, and that shot rate has helped him reach the DK shot bonus eight times. New Jersey doesn’t allow a lot of shots, but their goaltending remains an ongoing issue; their team save percentage is third-worst on the season, and even improvements of late still see them in the bottom-10 over their last 10 games. This is a high-paced matchup that plays into Bouchard’s hands both for peripherals and for production.
Price increases have eaten away into Bouchard’s point-per-dollar values on both sites. That is also keeping his ownership projections very low, as he’s expected under 3% on DK and even lower on FD. New Jersey goaltending gives every team high upside and that includes this defenseman tonight.
Jake Sanderson (OTT at COL): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $6,200
It has been eight games since the injury to Ottawa defenseman Thomas Chabot, and those eight games have seen Sanderson average 23:15 per night while running the team’s top PP unit, producing five points, and totaling 17 shots and 17 blocked shots in that span. None of those numbers are elite, but they are all good-to-very good and that kind of across-the-board production helps keep his DFS value afloat. Colorado is a team going through significant injury issues of their own and they have given up the eighth-most power plays per game to the opponent this season.
Among all defensemen priced under $5,000 on DK tonight, Sanderson ranks seventh by point projection. That isn’t great, but the value is still good, and there will be low single-digit ownership on him.
Sanderson’s price on FD is excessively high, so for a reasonably-priced blue liner on that site, consider Brock Faber (MIN, $4,600) as he carries strong point-per-dollar value.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ vs. WAS): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $7,200
It has been a solid season for Merzlikins while playing behind a poor defensive team by posting a .909 save percentage, easily above the league average. Of the 25 goalies with at least 1000 minutes played this season, this netminder is facing the third-most shots per minute, and the second-most of any goalie that could play tonight. Over the last month, he has faced nearly 40 shots per game, and that kind of shot volume is something that can give a goalie huge DFS performances. As a result, Merzlikins has managed at least 20 DK points in four of those seven games.
Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Merzlikins 10th by projected saves tonight, yet just 14th by expected goals against. He carries very strong point-per-dollar value on both sites because of his reasonable price, so for those looking to save a bit of money for their tournament goalie, Merzlikins is a solid option.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
EDM1: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
This Edmonton line will be reunited for this game, and it’s been an unbelievable line for the team. In 117 minutes as a trio at 5-on-5, they are creating 5.5 expected goals and 6.5 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those numbers aren’t far off what a low-end power play would offer, which speaks to the offensive dominance they’ve shown at even strength. As mentioned in the section on Bouchard, New Jersey goaltending has been subpar this season, and if they’re not sharp tonight, the Flying McDavids stand a good chance of filling the net.
The Oilers’ top line has the third-highest top-2 stack probability tonight, per the Top Stacks tool, but are likely to be in the low single digits for ownership as a unit because of their price. It gives them high positive leverage, and makes them an expensive target for tournaments.
CAR1: Stefan Noesen – Sebastian Aho – Seth Jarvis
In nearly 50 minutes together at 5-on-5, this Carolina trio has controlled 58% of the expected goal share while outscoring the opposition 3-0. They have been excellent together and tonight they face the Jake Guentzel-Sidney Crosby shutdown duo.
While the offense has been good for that duo, the defense has not by allowing 2.9 expected goals and 3.3 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. They play a high-paced brand of hockey, and that suits this Hurricanes line just fine. Aho alone has eight points and 19 shots over his last five games as the team has come alive offensively with their new lineup configuration.
The Top Stacks tool has this Carolina trio with ownership under 1% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Their top-2 stack probability isn’t high, but it’s higher than that ownership rate, and they are moderately priced across the industry. They are a good, low-owned stack to use in the mid-price range.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
