NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Against the Grain Victor Wembanyama (January 31)

We’re back to the madness, with seven more NBA games on Wednesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Victor Wembanyama and Aaron Gordon.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Victor Wembanyama: Orlando Magic-San Antonio Spurs

It’s always fun to be able to roster Victor Wembanyama at low ownership, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be on DraftKings at $9,200. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 20.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 4.2 stocks per game, Wemby has already established himself as an elite fantasy basketball commodity at just 20 years old. While his season numbers are impressive, Wemby has been even more dominant since being moved to center full time and now that he’s off his minutes restriction, he’s got as high of an upside as anyone in the league.

Despite his nightly dominance, the field is finding it difficult to prioritize Wemby on this slate. As of this writing, Wemby is projected to be in only 9.60% of lineups on DraftKings. Compare that to his 18.00% optimal percentage and it makes sense why Wemby currently grades out as one of the best leverage plays on the slate. Although these numbers are fluid and can change as we get more news closer to lock, Wemby currently looks like arguably the best differentiator on the board and he’s clearly worth getting over the field on in tournaments of all sizes.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Aaron Gordon: Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder

Aaron Gordon also grades out as one of the best leverage plays on DraftKings and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play at $5,400. While no one will argue that Gordon isn’t more solid than spectacular, he’s not needed to do a ton offensively for a Nuggets team that has Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Coming into tonight averaging 28.9 DraftKings points, however, Gordon continues to be viable in DFS and now that his price has fallen to $5,400 it’s surprising he isn’t getting more love.

Gordon is the cheapest he’s been all season tonight and with an average price tag of $6,382 he’s over $1,000 cheaper than his median tag. Despite his falling price tag, the field wants nothing to do with Gordon as he’s only projected to be in 4.80% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 10.00% it makes sense why Gordon looks so good from a leverage perspective. While he’s fairly priced for his median outcome, Gordon is too cheap for his upside and he’s clearly one of the best tournament plays on the slate.

Contrarian Value — Lonnie Walker IV: Phoenix Suns-Brooklyn Nets

Lonnie Walker IV is the highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools and he’s the obvious top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,500. With Dorian Finney-Smith out and Ben Simmons questionable for Brooklyn, minutes have all of a sudden opened up for Walker and he’s getting completely slept on at $3,500. With Dallas, Oklahoma City and Charlotte value all eating up a lot of ownership, Walker is getting left behind and he looks like an elite way to get contrarian without risking much opportunity cost.

Walker is currently projected to be optimal 21.50% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. The field isn’t getting to him at nearly that rate, however, as he’s only expected to be in 9.40% of lineups. While these numbers tend to even out as the state becomes more stabilized, Walker will only look better if Simmons is out and at $3,500 he opens up paths to roster construction that others won’t be able to follow.

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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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