We’re back with an eight-game NBA slate on Friday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $10,600. After being voted to the All-NBA First Team last season, Gilgeous-Alexander has taken his game to new heights this year, as the Thunder currently sit third in the Western Conference with a 20-9 record. He is averaging 31.1 points, 6.5 assists, 5.8 rebounds and 3.6 steals/blocks per game, and Gilgeous-Alexander has slate-winning upside every time he steps on the court. In a tough spot in Denver against the Nuggets, however, the field wants nothing to do with him at $10,600.
As of this writing, Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to be 2.20% owned on DraftKings. Although his optimal percentage is only 6.00%, it’s clear the field isn’t getting to him at a high-enough rate. While he’s undoubtedly in a tough spot in Denver where the altitude is always a factor, the Thunder catch the Nuggets on the second of a back-to-back, so it’s presumably a slighter better spot for Gilgeous-Alexander than it normally would be.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Bogdan Bogdanovic: Sacramento Kings-Atlanta Hawks
Matched up with his former team in what sets up as potentially the game of the night from a DFS perspective, Bogdan Bogdanovic is the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,600. The total in the Sacramento-Atlanta game currently sits at 252 points, so it’s reasonable to get exposure to both the Kings and the Hawks in tournaments.
Bogdanovic is averaging 30.6 DraftKings points per game and is the third wheel to Trae Young and Dejounte Murray for Atlanta offensively. On any given night, however, Bogdanovic can be the No. 1 option, and he is priced much cheaper than Young, giving him a 21.40% chance of being optimal on this slate. Although the field is projected to get to him at a 14.50% rate, he’s clearly not getting enough love in a smash spot against the Kings.
Contrarian Value — Udoka Azubuike: Charlotte Hornets-Phoenix Suns
Speaking of smash spots, centers have routinely dominated the Hornets for years, and Udoka Azubuike is DraftKings’ top contrarian value play at $3,800. While the Suns center rotation is murky right now with Jusuf Nurkic back in the fold, Azubuike has played well in limited minutes, and there’s a lot to like about him in GPPs at a really cheap price tag.
Azubuike currently has a 7.40% chance of being optimal on DraftKings but just 1.40% projected ownership. Plus, his salary also opens up a ton of room for roster construction, and unlike most other cheap fillers, his upside is monstrous if he somehow plays 25 minutes.
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