Friday brings a compact eight-game featured slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Injury news is everywhere, and with 16 teams in action, the information wheel has not stopped spinning yet. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, December 29
De’Aaron Fox: Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.03 | FanDuel: 49.88
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 9.9% | FanDuel: 6.9%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,300
The Kings have lost three of the last four games, but they have a chance to get right in Atlanta, where the game is currently listed as a pick’em. This matchup boasts a 252.0 projected total, so there should be ample fantasy goodness on both sides. De’Aaron Fox has made a major step forward, building on his inaugural All-Star nomination last year. He has increased his fantasy production by nearly 20%, including career-high per-game averages of 30.2 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.6 steals.
Over his last 14 games, the 26-year-old has tallied 60-plus fantasy points twice and 50-plus on five other occasions. Tonight anything less than a 50 burger should be considered a severe disappointment.
There are plenty of options at the pivot position tonight, but this is a good time to highlight Domantas Sabonis. He is having one of the best years of his career from a fantasy perspective, buoyed by his all-around game. The reigning rebounding champion is averaging just over a dozen boards per game for the fifth consecutive season while also recording a career-high 7.4 assists per game. He and Fox form a potent two-man game, and it will be fun to see how they can get Trae Young in a blender tonight.
Young is also a consideration in this matchup, as he is having his best fantasy season as well, courtesy of 28.1 points, 11.3 assists and 1.3 steals per game, each being personal bests. Defense is not his forte, though that will not be an issue tonight, as the Kings are willing to just get out and run with anyone and everyone. Bogdan Bogdanovic gets a fun “Remember Me?!” spot against his former team, and this matchup suits his skillset perfectly. Keep in mind that, while De’Andre Hunter is out, Jalen Johnson has returned, though still getting his sea legs after missing a month with a left (non-dominant) hand injury. Former University of Washington star Dejounte Murray rounds out the Atlanta options, and the rest of the Kings are neutral plays at best — yes, even former Hawk Kevin Huerter.
Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets
Joel Embiid and Nicolas Batum remain out, which means Paul Reed remains in our lives for at least one more day. We have seen both the bad on Christmas Day and the good, which was a trip to the 40-fantasy-point plateau on Wednesday in Orlando. The realistic outcome is somewhere in between, but he is at a price point that is not going to break the bank. Tyrese Maxey has now disappointed twice, but this is a good matchup against the Rockets, who are without Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith. That means some combination of Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green will likely be on Maxey most of the game and defense is not their forte. Even if Jae’Sean Tate or Tari Eason (leg) get a chance to guard Maxey, he should be able to out-quick them.
De’Anthony Melton looks good on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with Tobias Harris and Kelly Oubre Jr. standing out on the former DFS site.
Alperen Sengun should be able to roam in the paint at will against Reed, and he should be pushing 50 fantasy points in this matchup. VanVleet is always in play for tournaments, as he never seems to leave the court but he can disappear or be ineffective on offense for long stretches. Eason is a tournament option if healthy, particularly when looking for some in-game synergy, but he is not overly appealing as a standalone play.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Giannis Antetokounmpo has a calf issue, but he is expected to play tonight. If Antetokounmpo is a go, he is a decent play, considering that the Cavaliers have slipped on defense over the last five games without Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. In the event Antetokounmpo misses, look to the remaining Bucks, who should each see a 10% boost on their baseline fantasy projections.
Donovan Mitchell has been out for 11 days now with an illness. Even if Mitchell plays, there are likely conditioning concerns, but he will be one heck of a tournament flyer. If he is out yet again, we can go back to Max Struss and Craig Porter Jr. for one last hurrah, otherwise the Cleveland salaries have all normalized over the last week and change to account for three key starters being on the sidelines.
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Jakob Poeltl can really rack up the points and rebounds, but he has really slipped down the Toronto rotation. Tonight he has a -120 line on his under 8.5 rebounds prop. Per the true odds of -144 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a favorable 6% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% for your ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -165 posted at the “sharp book” Pinnacle for under 8.5 rebounds demonstrates this very concept.
NBA Bet Pro has Poeltl projected for 26.2 minutes and 8.01 rebounds. The current available wager has a 59% win probability, which makes getting the best line available key since they are all shaded to the under.
In his last 10 games, Poeltl has topped 8.5 rebounds only once. However, he has had exactly eight five other times in this stretch. In this timeframe, he has averaged 24.1 minutes and 6.9 rebounds, so we can see that Bet Pro is giving him a few extra minutes with the expectation that his size will be needed against the Boston frontcourt. Keep tabs on who is out for the Celtics, as they played an overtime game last night and Al Horford will be resting tonight, with Kristaps Porzingis listed as doubtful. This is a bit of a double-edged sword, as if the Celtics go small, then Poeltl will see fewer minutes, but he will have a rebounding edge while on the court.
Rooting for unders may not be as fun as rooting for overs, but that is where the line value is more often than not when it comes to player props, as the sportsbooks look to use psychology against casual bettors.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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