NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Against the Grain Giannis Antetokounmpo (February 12)

With the Super Bowl now in the rearview mirror, the NBA blesses us with a nine-game NBA slate on Monday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including Giannis Antetokounmpo and Andre Drummond. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, February 12

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Nuggets-Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.20%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,700

Despite the arrival of Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo comes into tonight’s action averaging 59.1 DraftKings points per game, and he’s been every bit as productive as he was in years past. Although he projects for 61.30 fantasy points on DraftKings, the field isn’t interested in prioritizing him with Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic both projecting better. Considering those other options, Giannis is slightly overpriced for his median outcome. His upside, however, is slate-breaking, and rostering Giannis is an easy way to get different without sacrificing any upside.

Despite his sky-high ceiling, Giannis is going completely overlooked on DraftKings. As of this writing, he’s projected to be in just 3.00% of lineups. While his optimal percentage is only 8.20%, the field still isn’t getting to him at the rate it should be. Rostering Giannis will come at a meaningful opportunity cost, but he grades out as one of the top leverage plays on the board and a great differentiator in tournaments of all sizes.

NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Bulls-Hawks: Andre Drummond

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 20.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,900

Andre Drummond is a hard nut to crack these days, but nevertheless, he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,900. After back-to-back games in which he played a combined 66 minutes and put up 88.8 fantasy points, Drummond was sent back to the shadow realm on Saturday as he saw only 17 minutes of action against Orlando. While his minutes undoubtedly come with a lot of volatility, Drummond has always been an elite fantasy producer when he’s on the court. Despite his clear upside and falling price tag, Drummond is falling through the cracks on DraftKings.

Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Drummond is a forgotten man on DraftKings tonight and grades out as the second-best leverage play on the slate .As of this writing, Drummond is projected to be in just 5.50% of lineups but has a huge 20.80% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his minutes uncertainty, his upside is massive at $5,900, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pelicans-Grizzlies: Scotty Pippen Jr.

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 31.10%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,000

Scotty Pippen Jr. is the highest-graded leverage player in Stokastic’s tools. Although he didn’t play in Memphis’ last game on Saturday against the Hornets, Pippen is on a two-way contract, so the Grizzlies likely held him out to preserve his allotted active games in the NBA. Despite his contract status, Pippen has been extremely productive for the Grizzlies when he has played, and presuming he’s active tonight, he looks like one of the top tournament plays on the board.

Pippen projects to be optimal 31.10% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 13.10% of lineups projected to roster him, the field is overlooking Pippen, and he’s worth targeting in both large-field and small-field GPP’s.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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