NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Against the Grain Jalen Brunson (March 3)

We’re back with a six-game NBA slate on Sunday that tips off at 6 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Remember that there is no late swap tonight on DraftKings, so build lineups accordingly. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Jalen Brunson and Blake Wesley. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, March 1

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Knicks-Cavaliers: Jalen Brunson

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600

Jalen Brunson has yet to appear in this article this season, but he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings tonight at $9,600. Coming into this evening’s action averaging 44.9 fantasy points per game, Brunson has broken out in a big way in his second season in the Big Apple. With Julius Randle sidelined, Brunson has put this Knicks team on his back, and he’s emerged as a true upper echelon fantasy commodity. As a result of his stellar performance this season, Brunson rarely falls through the cracks on DraftKings. That’s the case tonight, however, as the field is sleeping on him in a big way.

Brunson is projected to be in just 6.30% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 11.90%, it’s clear why Brunson stands out as one of the best plays on the slate from a leverage perspective. He is undoubtedly an elite tournament piece at $9,600.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Thunder-Suns: Grayson Allen

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,900

Grayson Allen grades out extremely well in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,900. Allen has been one of the best shooters in the Association this season, but coming off two forgettable games against the Rockets, the field has little interest in going back to him on DraftKings.

Allen averages 25.8 fantasy points per game on the season, but he’s been much more of a boom/bust type GPP player than he ever has been in years past. Embracing that volatility is key in GPP’s, and Allen has emerged as one of the best tournament plays on the slate.

Allen is projected to be in just 3.90% of lineups but has a 11.80% optimal percentage. Currently projecting as the second-highest graded leverage play on the slate, Allen is clearly someone to target in GPP’s. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his overall inconsistencies, Allen has massive upside at $5,900, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pacers-Spurs: Blake Wesley

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,000

It’s always nice to be able roster players at the flat $3,000 with positive leverage, and Spurs guard Blake Wesley fits that bill on DraftKings. Although no one will argue that Wesley isn’t more solid than spectacular, he stands out in a big way from a leverage standpoint for DFS purposes.

While he’s usually just a fringe rotation piece, Wesley should see his minutes increase tonight with Julian Champagnie out for the Spurs. Regardless of how many minutes he plays, Wesley is still unlikely to put up a score that’s needed to win tournaments. His $3,000 price tag, however, opens up paths to roster construction that otherwise would be shut.

Stokastic’s tools currently have Wesley optimal 8.80% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 4.90% of lineups projected to roster him, Wesley offers a ton of leverage without much opportunity cost.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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