NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Bol Bol SZN? (February 29)

We’re back with another six-game NBA slate that tips off at 7 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including Dejounte Murray and Bol Bol. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Thursday, February 29

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Hawks-Nets: Dejounte Murray

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 10.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400

Dejounte Murray has been spectacular in the absence of Trae Young, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,400. With Young out of the lineup, Murray has consistently been one of the highest owned players on DraftKings, and he’s paid his owners off by averaging 50.6 fantasy points over the past three game. With a rising price tag on DraftKings, however, the field is backing off Murray with other spend up options garnering more attention.

After coming in very chalky over the past few slates he’s been on, Murray is projected to be in just 4.80% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 10.30%, it’s clear why Murray looks so good from a leverage standpoint. He is undoubtedly an elite tournament core piece at $9,400.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Jazz-Magic: Jordan Clarkson

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 10.50%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,900

Jordan Clarkson grades out extremely well in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,900. Clarkson comes into tonight’s action averaging 29.8 DraftKings points per game, and although his production is volatile, he’s got clear upside at a price tag that’s almost $500 less than his average salary this season. Due to his inconsistent production, Clarkson is never a guy I love rostering when he’s getting ownership.

When he’s not getting love, however, I’m much more willing to take chances on his volatility due to his sky high ceiling on any given night. Despite his clear upside at $5,900, the field isn’t getting to Clarkson at nearly the rate they should be.

Clarkson is projected to be in just 6.40% of lineups but has a 10.50% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his necessity to make shots, Clarkson’s upside is massive at $5,900, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.

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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Rockets-Suns: Bol Bol

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 9.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,900

Bol Bol is the highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the clear top contrarian play on DraftKings at $3,900. Despite limited playing time over the past few seasons, Bol has become somewhat of a fan favorite throughout the DFS industry. Bol is undoubtedly one of the most tantalizing players in the league, as he’s Victor Wembanyama-like on his best days, and Tacko Fall-like on his worst. Although Bol fell out of favor quickly in both Denver and Orlando, he’s playing well for the Suns and he’s played himself into semi-consistent minutes. Coming off a two-game stretch in which he played 51 minutes and put up 70.5 fantasy points, the field is sleeping on Bol in a big way on DraftKings

Stokastic’s tools currently have Bol optimal 9.90% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 2.00% of lineups projected to roster him, Bol offers a ton of leverage.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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