Saturday brings most of the league in action with a 10-game featured slate that tips at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Cole Anthony and Craig Porter Jr. are two of the best fantasy point-per-dollar options in the player pool. Then we could have some seismic shifts in projections, depending on the availability of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Luka Doncic. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, December 23
Cole Anthony: Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 35.52 | FanDuel: 34.64
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 45.1% | FanDuel: 40.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $6,500
Jalen Suggs (wrist) and Joe Ingles (ankle) are once again out, as is Markelle Fultz. Gary Harris will get a spot start tonight, but Cole Anthony is the real holiday treat. Even if he remains in a bench role, the 23-year-old should be on the court for something approaching 30 minutes. The 15th overall selection in the 2020 NBA Draft remains a steady source of offense with the second unit and also gets additional run with the closing lineup in tight games. Over the last two games, he has averaged nearly 30 minutes with 19 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.0 combined blocks and steals. He has a clear pathway to 40 fantasy points tonight with a little luck, in this game with a lofty 242.5-point total.
After missing the better part of two months with a hand injury, Wendell Carter Jr. has played 23 and 21 minutes in his first two games back. For those feeling frisky in tournaments, he is discounted on both DraftKings ($5,400) and FanDuel ($5,900), though he has an additional cost of taking up the center position. In this matchup, if he sees his minutes pushed up to the 28-30 range, 40 fantasy points are within his grasp. However, with 20 teams in the player pool, he is really in the cards for those with a higher risk tolerance.
Paolo Banchero and Granz Wagner stand out on FanDuel, with each likely to be on one-third of all lineups. Their projected popularity is about half that on DraftKings, which is very interesting for tournaments.
Tyrese Haliburton is dealing with an ankle sprain, and while he has not had a 50 fantasy point effort since before the NBA In-Season Tournament championship, his salary has dropped by a decent margin on the main NBA DFS sites.
Craig Porter Jr.: Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 28.44 | FanDuel: 28.75
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 37.4% | FanDuel: 48.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $5,400
Tonight Craig Porter Jr. is the second-most popular play on FanDuel, behind Jordan Clarkson, who is inexplicably at the minimum $3,500 salary after missing the last six games. On DraftKings, he is also projected as the second-most rostered player, behind the aforementioned Anthony.
Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are out for an extended stretch, and Donovan Mitchell will miss his third straight game with an illness. Porter has not exactly lit up the scoreboard, but he is averaging a tick shy of 30 fantasy points in his last three starts. Chicago has been slightly better than the league average on defense over the last three weeks, but they are far from a lockdown unit.
Caris LeVert seems like a trap, as he has averaged just over 25 minutes per appearance over his last four outings, even though the Cavaliers are missing three starters. He does have three games above 30 fantasy points, with two in the 40s across his last five, but if he fails to clear 25 fantasy points, as he did in the other two tilts during this timeframe, he will torpedo lineups.
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both questionable, and it would not be a complete surprise if one or both sit in anticipation of the upcoming Christmas Day matchup against Boston. If they both play, nobody is particularly exciting on the Lakers, but if only one is out, the other becomes a priority.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings have assigned hefty cap hits to Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell, so even if the dynamic duo is out, they are neutral options at best. Cam Reddish, Rui Hachimura (wrist) and Taurean Prince are viable discount dandies if one of the future Hall of Famers is out.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a well-deserved five-figure salary, and he has increased his fantasy production by nearly 10% over last year’s breakout. By the time the dust settles tonight, he will be on around 20% of all tournament rosters, which still feels a little light. Josh Giddey is out, so that gives a trickle-down boost to the likes of Aaron Wiggins and Kenrich Williams who are extreme punts on DraftKings and FanDuel, who will likely be replaced as better value plays appear closer to tipoff.
Chet Holmgren is an interesting tournament play, but he will cost you your center slot. He will project better if Davis is out but is still worthy of tournament rosters on the featured slate either way.
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Luka Doncic (quad) was out last night, and the Mavericks melted down in Houston as the understudies of the understudies just could not keep up. Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, Dereck Lively II and Maxi Kleber are all out once again, and if Doncic and Dante Exum (leg) join them, it’s hard to be excited for anyone on Dallas, even in a great matchup.
Last night, coach Jason Kidd played ten different players for at least 17 minutes, with only Oliver Maxence-Prosper topping 26 and starter Markieff Morris getting 12, while Dwight Powell had eight and Greg Brown III saw a dozen. If Doncic is out again, vaya con dios mis amigos.
Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are reasonable plays from San Antonio on the full slate, and they are excellent options on the evening sub-slate. Rookie Victor Wembanyama is the wild card, as he played just 22 minutes in Chicago after sitting out a game in Milwaukee two nights prior. This could have been a bit of load management, but it is worth noting. If Wembanyama starts, the Spurs’ next game is on Tuesday, so he will have a three-day respite, which makes him a fine tournament option if the inconsistent minutes and specter of coach Gregg Popovich keep casual gamers away.
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Coby White looks like he has some profit potential with the +110 line on his under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the true odds of +103 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a steady 4% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% for your ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -125 posted at BetMGM for under 32.5 PRA demonstrates this very concept. The line at Tipico is even more punitive at -105, with one PRA less than the figure at DraftKings.
NBA Bet Pro has White projected for 37.1 minutes, 21.59 points, 4.59 rebounds and 5.21 assists for 31.39 PRA. The current available wager has a 49% win probability, which makes getting the positive line from DraftKings an imperative.
White has fallen under 33 PRA in three of his last four games despite strong shooting percentages and a heavy workload of over 37 minutes per outing. In full disclosure, he cleared this milestone in four of the preceding seven games, but he was averaging 40 minutes in those outings. This demonstrates that there are several hurdles he will need to clear, including foul trouble, poor performance, lop-sided game flow, etc. If he were to lose even three minutes and drop back to 34 minutes of run, he would need to be wildly efficient to go over 32.5 PRA.
Rooting for unders may not be as fun as rooting for overs, but that is where the line value is more often than not when it comes to player props, as the sportsbooks look to use psychology against casual bettors.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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