The NBA is back with a 10-game slate on Saturday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Ja Morant and Desmond Bane.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Ja Morant: Memphis Grizzlies-Atlanta Hawks
Ja Morant is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $9,700. After missing the first 25 games of Memphis’ season, Morant has looked electric since returning, and there’s a ton to like about him tonight in a matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. After coming into last season as a consensus top-10 player in the league, legal trouble has dimmed some of Morant’s stardom with much of the NBA world ready to write him off. Although it’s only been two games since he returned, Morant has an obvious chip on his shoulder, and that’s a scary thought for every other team in the Association.
Despite averaging 47.4 DraftKings points since returning, the field still isn’t ready to commit to Morant, as he is only projected to be 3.2% owned. Compare that to his 8.5% optimal percentage, and it’s obvious why he looks so good as a differentiator in tournaments. While it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Morant’s ownership rise as we inch closer to lock, make sure to watch Live Before Lock to stay up on all the relevant news.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Desmond Bane: Memphis Grizzlies-Atlanta Hawks
Memphis looks like the most under-owned team on DraftKings, and Desmond Bane is the top contrarian mid-tier play at $8,300. One of the breakout stars of the young season, Bane has undoubtedly been the Grizzlies’ best player through 27 games. While everything will change for Memphis once Morant gets fully acclimated to playing NBA basketball again, Bane is still averaging 42 DraftKings points per game, and the field is barely looking his way.
Despite Morant’s return presumably eating into his usage, defenses can no longer put all of their attention on Bane, and Memphis as a whole should be much better offensively with their best player back in the lineup. While most people will focus on the negative correlation of Morant playing with him, there is plenty of positive correlation as well, and it’s already played out in the two games since Morant returned. Although he wasn’t great in New Orleans in Morant’s season debut, Bane was the best player on the floor against Indiana en route to dropping 52.5 DraftKings points on the Pacers. There will surely be more volatility with Bane now that he won’t be asked to carry the entire load offensively, but his upside hasn’t changed, and in tournaments, that’s primarily what we care about.
Contrarian Value — Richaun Holmes: San Antonio Spurs-Dallas Mavericks
Pivoting off of the Grizzlies, Richaun Holmes is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,300. While most of the Mavericks embarrassed themselves last night in an ugly loss to the Rockets, Holmes had arguably his best performance of the season, putting up 29 DraftKings points in 22 minutes. Although there is no guarantee he plays anywhere close to 22 minutes tonight, he is worth taking a shot on in tournaments, as he currently grades out as the top leverage play on the slate.
As of this writing, Holmes is projected to be optimal 7% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.2% of the field expected to roster him, he is a nice way to get different in tournaments at a very minimal cost. While we don’t expect Holmes to put up a score necessary to win in tournaments, he has always been a good fantasy producer when given minutes, and his $3.300 price tag opens up a lot as far as roster construction goes.
Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
