Thursday brings a typical two-game featured slate, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Bam Adebayo and Chris Paul will be fixtures across most lineups tonight. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, November 16
There are plenty of key players who will not be available tonight with Stephen Curry, Ben Simmons, Cam Thomas and Tyler Herro all out with injuries. Plus Draymond Green has been suspended for five games, after being involved in an altercation with Rudy Gobert.Â
Core Play of the Day — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.62 | FanDuel: 51.7
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 35.8% | FanDuel: 54.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $11,300
Today the content is going to have a lot of overlap, particularly when it comes to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He has the lone median fantasy point projection in the 50s and only one other player is within 15 fantasy points when comparing baseline projections. After earning his first All-Star Game nod and averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game last year, Gilgeous-Alexander has taken another step forward this season.
The biggest changes, through 10 games, are a career high 53.4% success rate from the field, 6.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists as well as a league leading 2.6 steals per game. This is an island game for the Thunder, who last played on Tuesday and they will remain in San Francisco, facing Golden State again on Saturday. Oklahoma City is actually favored by a bucket, in what is a very winnable game with Curry injured and Green suspended.
Chet Holmgren and Josh Giddey are secondary options with tournament upside from OKC.
Turning our attention to the Warriors, Chris Paul is projected to be on 85% of all DraftKings lineups and 75% of FanDuel rosters. This makes sense as he should see minutes in the mid-30s, as long as his 38-year-old hamstrings can hold out. There is risk of in-game rest if this game is out of hand, particularly with Curry likely out until next week with his ankle issue.
Kevon Looney and Dario Saric should get extra minutes in the frontcourt, with the former looking at double-digit rebounds and the latter in play for a second consecutive game with 20 points. Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have one measly game between them of 30-plus fantasy points. Ponder that for a moment.
Rookie Brandin Podziemski popped off for 40 fantasy points in the last game and he drew rave comments from head coach Steve Kerr. Fortunately, both of the main DFS sites pre-emptively increased his salary, so he is an interesting decision point and not a slam dunk. Veterans Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Gary Payton II should all have extra minutes as the team covers for the two missing starters.
Bam Adebayo: Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 46.75 | FanDuel: 46.54
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 50.3% | FanDuel: 47.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $10,000
Bam Adebayo is the only other player with a median fantasy point projection over 40 tonight, which has him as him showing up on around half of all rosters in the first run of the projected player popularity algorithm. The main pivots on FanDuel of course will be Looney and Nicolas Claxton, who are the next most productive center-only options.
The best projected lineup with Adebayo, currently has 290.1 FanDuel points, Looney’s has 291.5 and Claxton is a tick behind at 285.6. It will be hard to skip over Adebayo who has 50 or more fantasy points in six of his last seven games, including a pair of 60 fantasy point efforts. But it is not impossible to see how a few lineups without him, could be beneficial and race up the leaderboard if he falters and Looney or Claxton roll up solid games.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Mikal Bridges is averaging a career best 20.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists as he is finally the main option on his team. Additionally, there are additional scoring and rebounding opportunities available with Simmons and Thomas out with injuries, but that does not necessarily mean these will land with Bridges.
Tonight we can look to the under on his 32.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop for -1111. NBA Bet Pro currently has the sixth-year forward projected for 36.5 minutes, 21.84 points, 5.53 rebounds and 3.38 assists for a 30.8 PRA. The “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager) of –122 indicate that this bet has an expected ROI of almost 5%.
It is not fun rooting for unders, but that is where the value often is when it comes to player props, as the sportsbooks take advantage of people looking to root for positive outcomes. In 11 games this season, we can see that Bridges has a per 36 minute rates of 21.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists for a 31.7 PRA. In just four of his 11 outings has the defensive-ace tallied more than 32.5 PRA, making this a savvy wager tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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