Bengals-Ravens DFS Picks: Can Lamar Jackson Recapture The Magic?! (November 16)

Thursday Night Football brings a spicy matchup to launch Week 11 as two likely playoff teams are on the island game. Baltimore has the third-best record in the league at 7-3, though the Ravens watched a multi-touchdown lead evaporate as the visiting Cleveland Browns escaped with a 33-31 victory on a last-second field goal. Cincinnati also lost at home on a last-second field goal, one of an NFL record five game winners last weekend. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Bengals-Ravens DFS plays for the Thursday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Thursday Night slate, so check out these Bengals-Ravens DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bengals-Ravens DFS Picks

Cincinnati Bengals: 21.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Joe Burrow as the QB10 on DraftKings and the QB13 on FanDuel, when looking at the full Week 11 player pool. Burrow is healthy, but his receivers are not and he is on the road against the second-best passing DVOA in the league. It is fun recalling the two games in the 2021 season against Baltimore, when Burrow racked up 941 passing yards and seven touchdowns, with just one interception. However, that was against a thinned-out Baltimore secondary and many moons ago. Heck, in the three meetings since then, Burrow has not topped 225 aerial yards in a single game, with a grand total of four touchdowns.

Refocusing on tonight’s matchup, it is wild to note that the Ravens have only allowed one opposing signal-caller to throw for more than 230 yards against them. That was in Week 7 against Jared Goff, who had 280 passing yards, but it took him 53 attempts to get there and he did not account for any touchdowns.

Back in Week 2, when Burrow was dealing with a calf injury, he had 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 41 attempts. That is not a great bellwether either as a lot has changed for both teams during the ensuing two months. Burrow has looked good since the Week 7 bye, with three consecutive multi-touchdown games as well as a pair with 347-plus passing yards. The Ravens have the upper hand tonight, but we cannot count Burrow out by any stretch of the imagination.

Running Back

Joe Mixon has scored in each of the last three games, but that is the only thing keeping his fantasy production afloat. While he has averaged a solid 4.14 yards per carry, that is not going to get it done, even with 14-to-18 totes. He does have 12 targets during this timeframe, but they are mostly dump-offs rather than trying to get him in space. Overall he is still a decent option in the utility slot, but for him to be a difference-maker in the multiplier position, he is going to need two touchdowns.

Mixon is typically on the field for 75% of the snaps, so that limits the potential for the other running backs. Trayveon Williams has secured the RB2 role and Chris Evans is only getting a couple of offensive plays per game. Neither is particularly appealing and over the last three tilts, Williams has just five carries for 18 yards, while catching his only target for a piddling two more.

Wide Receivers

Tee Higgins is out once again with his hamstring injury and he is joined by Andrei Ioslvas who had worked his way into the WR4 role. Ja’Marr Chase is dealing with a back issue, but he is expected to be good to go as he does not have an injury designation this week. Though he had a season-low six targets last week, he brought in five for 124 yards and a touchdown. He will be the focus of the defense tonight, but as a top-three receiver in the league, that is the case every time he takes the field.

Tyler Boyd does not provide the same wingman coverage as Higgins, but he is a capable receiver in the short and mid-range and he had a season-high 12 targets last week, for eight receptions and 117 yards, for his first time reaching that milestone this season. In the other game without Higgins, he saw his standard seven targets with six receptions and 39 yards.

Trenton Irwin had 10 targets when Higgins was out in Week 5, but only four last week. Of course he ended up catching two for 54 yards, including a 32-yard touchdown in the first quarter. It is likely that someone will be activated from the practice squad, so keep tabs on the transactions and inactives report today.

Tight Ends

Irv Smith Jr. and Drew Sample each scored a touchdown in Week 9 on Sunday Night Football, because of course they did. Last week Tanner Hudson popped up for 31% of the offensive plays, just behind Sample (36%), who saw his standard snap-share and Smith (33%), who had a season low.

Hudson had seven targets last week and he has 12 over the last two games, compared to Sample (4 and 3) and Smith (4 and 1). This is a true close-your-eyes-and-pick-one situation tonight. Sample is mostly a blocker and Smith was brought in to be the main pass-catching option, but it is clear that Burrow is just being opportunistic with this position and taking what the defense is allowing, when they are trying to focus on the wide receivers.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore has allowed three or more sacks on six occasions this season, while averaging 2.4 per game. Cincinnati is recording nearly three sacks per game, so that would be the expectation for tonight’s projections. The Bengals surprisingly lead the league with 18 takeaways, with 12 interceptions and four fumble recoveries. The Ravens are in the middle of the pack with five interceptions, but nine fumbles.

Baltimore Ravens: 24.75 Points

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson does have a career-best 70.0% completion rate, though his touchdown rate is at a career-low 3.6% and his 48.1 rushing yards per game are the fewest since his rookie season, when he started just seven games, though appeared in all 16 tilts. Jackson also has 10 fumbles, which are two shy of his worst season. Finally, despite averaging 27.0 points per game, which is the fifth-most in the league, Jackson has thrown only 10 touchdown passes.

This is a roundabout way of saying that Jackson is no longer the automatic Captain/MVP play he has been for most of his career, in the single-game format. Over the last four games, Cincinnati has allowed three different quarterbacks to compile 320-plus passing yards, though they have held the opposition to only three aerial scores during this stretch.

Considering the Bengals have the 29th rushing DVOA and the 12th passing DVOA, Baltimore is likely to focus on the running game, which is always the Ravens’ preferred approach.

Running Back

Baltimore boasts the top rushing DVOA in the league, but it clearly is a by-committee approach, which also includes Jackson. After J.K Dobbins went down in the opener, a combination of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill shouldered the load for the next seven games, though now rookie Keaton Mitchell has thrown his hat in the ring as well.

Mitchell was undrafted out of East Carolina, though he did have a pair of 1,100-yard rushing campaigns along with 25 total touchdowns in his last two seasons with the Pirates. He had nine carries and a target on his 14 snaps in Week 9 against Seattle, producing 138 rushing yards and a score. Last week he was on the field for 13 offensive plays, getting three carries for 34 yards and a touchdown, plus two targets for one reception and another 32 yards. Obviously the efficiency is unsustainable, but coach John Harbaugh has said he intends to keep the rookie involved going forward.

The expectation is that Edwards will get most of the first and second down work, though he typically gives way to Hill on passing downs. Mitchell will likely be worked in as the change of pace option and as long as he avoids any rookie gaffes, he has a chance to approach 8-to-10 touches tonight.

Wide Receiver and Tight End

Rookie Zay Flowers is the WR1, though he has seen his volume drop to around half a dozen targets per game over the last month. Odell Beckham Jr. has equaled Flowers’ 20 targes during this stretch, with third-year man Rashod Bateman getting 14 in the same timeframe.

Nine-year journeyman Nelson Agholor is back to running wind springs, getting one look per game, despite playing on nearly half of the snaps. It seems like his one magical year with Las Vegas, during the pandemic season is the outlier. Return man Devin Duvernay pops up now and again, but he has just two targets this season.

The goal is to keep the ball on the ground and let the defense do the heavy lifting, which keeps the offense with fewer than 30 passing plays most games. That could change if the Bengals can get out to a lead, but otherwise DFS gamers are counting on efficiency and touchdown luck.

Mark Andrews is the trusted target of Jackson and his 59 looks trail only the 68 of Flowers, though the veteran tight end did miss the first week of the season. Isaiah Likely has six of his 10 targets over the last three games, but he either needs a fortuitous touchdown or something to befall Andrews to get a shot at fantasy relevance. Charlie Kolar will be on the field for around a dozen snaps, but his lone target came all the way back in Week 1 when Andrews was out.

Defense/Special Teams

Burrow has been sacked at least three times in five of the last six games, while throwing four interceptions. Baltimore has recorded four or more sacks in seven games, along with at least one takeaway or a safety in every outing.

Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Bengals-Ravens DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bengals-Ravens

1. Lamar Jackson: Still the Captain/MVP, though far from a lock. Considering he has only one game of more than 20 fantasy points in the last six, leaving him off lineups entirely would create unique differentiation.
2. Joe Burrow: Tough road matchup, but he is looking like a fringe-MVP now that he is beyond his calf issue.
3. Mark Andrews: Ugh, hate to have him so high on medium volume, but he gets the high-leverage looks.
4. JaMarr Chase: Lofty salary and tough matchup, he needs 100 yards and a score to break-even tonight.
5. Tyler Boyd: Better option on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring, fair salary at $10,000 on FanDuel.
6. Joe Mixon: Touches will be there, but yards and touchdowns may not follow – glorified Gus Edwards.
7. Justin Tucker: Best kicker in the game, bar none.
8. Zay Flowers: Talent is there, volume and reps are not.
9. Trenton Irwin: Salary increased appropriately for absence of Higgins. Also returns punts.
10. Gus Edwards: Riding the bus is the preferred method of offensive transportation for the Ravens.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bengals-Ravens

1. Evan McPherson: Only misses have been from 50-plus, but looking more and more like he is a league average kicker, despite the great surname.
2. Keaton Mitchell: Tonight’s wild card, could break the hearts of his backers or detractors. Back-up kick returner to Duvernay.
3. Baltimore D/ST: Slight downgrade against a top offense, but in front of the Ravens Rowdies, this unit should rise to the occasion.
4. Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr.: Coinflip, both are in play, but like Flowers, lack of steady volume hurts baseline projection and makes touchdowns an outsized factor.
5. Drew Sample, Irv Smith Jr. and Tanner Hudson: True three-headed monster, Burrow does not play favorites.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bengals-Ravens

1. Cincinnati D/ST: Meh, but a pick-six or scoop-and-score could land them in the optimal lineup.
2. Justice Hill: Better pass protection experience likely has him ahead of Mitchell, but without the same dynamism.
3. Nelson Agholor: On the field, but rarely gets more than a target or two.
4. Trayveon Williams: Gets his own line, but do not expect more than a handful of opportunities. Part-time kickoff returner.
5. Isaiah Likely: Better on DraftKings ($600) than FanDuel ($6,000) with the disparate salary floors between the sites. Best path to relevance is via a first half injury to Andrews.
6. Patrick Ricard: Glorified offensive lineman at 305 pounds, has five targets this season, catching four for 48 yards. No carries since Week 15 of last year.
7. Devin Duvernay: Questionable with a hamstring injury, may be relegated to return duties only.
8. Chris Evans: Main kickoff returner, backfield snaps have been rare to this point in the year, despite preseason buzz.
9. Mitchell Wilcox and Charlie Kolar: Backup tight ends, to the back up tight ends.
10. Stanley Morgan Jr., Shedrick Jackson, Kwamie Lassiter II, Tylan Wallace, Chris Collinsworth and Trent Dilfer: Nope, nada, zilch.

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