Saturday kicks off the weekend with a nifty nine-game featured slate with a 7 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Donovan Mitchell is the core building block across the various DFS sites tonight. There are questions surrounding the three best-projected players with several fantasy point-per-dollar options starting to emerge — and with more likely to emerge closer to lock. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, December 16
Donovan Mitchell: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 54.89 | FanDuel: 53.2
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 37.5% | FanDuel: 31.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,100
We won’t be alone in flocking to Donovan Mitchell tonight, but for those who missed the news — Darius Garland will iss at least a month after suffering a fractured jaw on Thursday. Evan Mobley (knee) has missed the last four games and will sit for between six to eight weeks, which means two of the top three scorers on the team are no longer in the picture. That means Mitchell will have the ball in his hands on most possessions, and this season, he has averaged 1.38 fantasy points per minute on the court without Garland or Mobley. That marks a 5% increase in his efficiency.
The matchup against Atlanta is usually a favorable one, but it’s even better with the Hawks playing on a back-to-back as well as the third game in four nights. Over the last 10 games, Atlanta has the fifth-worst defensive efficiency, allowing 119.8 points per 100 possessions. They have done so while averaging 102.3 possessions per 48 minutes, which is the sixth-fastest pace during that span. This bodes well for Caris LeVert and Max Strus, who should see more scoring opportunities and serve as secondary facilitators with Ty Jerome still on the shelf.
Craig Porter Jr. isn’t an overly exciting fantasy prospect, but he did have 25 fantasy points in the last game. When the Cavs were shorthanded in mid-November, he had a stretch of four games in which he tallied at least 30 fantasy points three times. FanDuel and DraftKings got ahead of the salary, increasing the rookie by just over $1,000 for this game. We need to hear more information from the coaching staff regarding his minutes before we go overboard.
Finally, Jarrett Allen does see a slight increase in his rebounding rates without Mobley in the mix. His true path to more fantasy points will be getting additional minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. That could be a tough ask against Atlanta, particularly if they continue to start both Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, which they did last night.
Apex Predators
Two actual MVPs and one potential future MVP currently grace the player pool tonight, though they are barely breaking though to a combined double-digit popularity level on DraftKings, and this trio has an aggregate 20% popularity on FanDuel.
Joel Embiid brought the ruckus last night against the Detroit Pistons, leading the 76ers to a comfortable 124-92 victory. He led the team with 29 minutes while compiling 35 points, 13 rebounds, two assists, two steals and four blocks. He should crush again tonight against a shorthanded Hornets squad that is a double-digit home dog. The main risk is that he could play anther sub-30 minute game, though he probably will still approach 50 fantasy points in that scenario.
Nikola Jokic should have no issues against Oklahoma City, as the Thunder Bigs lack the sheer size to battle Jokic in the paint. This season he has averaged close to 1.9 fantasy points per minute, which is rarified air and better than what he tallied in either of his MVP seasons. It sounds like Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon suit up, which could lead to the Nuggets taking care of business early.
Luka Doncic rounds out the trio. He is even the preferred option since he won’t take up a center slot. Kyrie Irving, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber are all out once again. That means insane usage going to Doncic, and with Jerami Grant (concussion) available for the first time in five games, the Trail Blazers are only 5-point home underdogs in Portland. In six of the seven games that Irving has missed, Doncic has recorded 39 or more minutes. He is averaging 40.3 minutes, 32 points, 8.7 rebounds, 12 assists and 2.3 combined blocks and steals through that span. Using DraftKings scoring (triple-double and double-double bonuses), he has three games with 60-plus fantasy points, one with 76.5 and one with 91.8.
Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings
This game boasts a 239.5 projected point total, with the Jazz once again missing several key players. Lauri Markkanen is back after missing significant time with a hamstring issue, but now Keyonte George and Luka Samanic are out. Jordan Clarkson (ankle) remains out for a second game and John Collins is out with an illness for the fourth consecutive game. Even Omer Yurtseven is out, too.
Markkanen, Talen Horton-Tucker (hamstring), Collin Sexton and Walker Kessler are the best fantasy producers, with Kris Dunn a tournament wildcard and Kelly Olynyk best on sites where he can be employed at the power forward position.
For the Kings, Alex Len remains out and De’Aaron Fox (shoulder) is questionable but likely to play. The worry here is that the Kings rule the roost, knocking the Jazz out of the way early. If Fox is out, that is less likely, but if he is in and Horton-Tucker ends up sitting, this game becomes a laugher. Domantas Sabonis is one of many excellent center options tonight, but do not lose sight of him in tournaments.
Malik Monk stands out on FanDuel with the best fantasy point per dollar ratio from the squad, though he is part of the handful of wings that make things crowded on this team at the current salaries — unless, of course, we get a surprise Saturday scratch.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
While we want to roll with Donovan Mitchell in the DFS arena, we can hedge some of our risk in the sports wagering market with this -110 line on his under 34.5 points prop. Per the true odds of -127 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has nearly a 7% expected ROI resulting from the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below: the -124 posted at Pinnacle for the under 33.5 points demonstrates this very concept. We can see that DraftKings has the under 32.5 — a difference of a full two points — priced at -105. Be a savvy shopper!
NBA Bet Pro has Mitchell projected for 37.2 minutes and 33.4 points. The current available wager has a 56% win probability, which makes grabbing this offering at -110 a solid strategy.
Even with two of his key teammates on the shelf, that is no guarantee that Mitchell will drop the 35 points necessary to cash the over tonight. In his 20 games this season, he has more than 35 points four (20%) times and between 30 and 34 another four (20%) times.
Get ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium when you sign up through this link for BetMGM. There is also a first-bet bonus promotion of up to $1,500 back in credits if the bet loses. Check out this link for full details.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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