There are 12 games on the NHL docket tonight and the stars are here as Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak, Cale Makar, and Roman Josi are all playing. It provides a bevy of top-end options, leaving the middle of the slate easy to look past. Let’s get to our NHL DFS picks today.
As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to check out the members-only Discord before lock for injury and lineup information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Sidney Crosby (PIT at TOR): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $9,300
After going a month without scoring a power play goal, the Pittsburgh Penguins have scored four power play goals in their last two games. Now, those were games against Arizona and Montreal, but every journey/single step etc. It is hard to overstate the impact on Crosby’s DFS profile if the team has anything approaching an adequate power play; he sits fifth among 247 regular forwards across the league in points per minute at 5-on-5. He registered three power play points in those recent two games, doubling his PP point output for the season.
Going to Toronto isn’t a great power play matchup, necessarily, but it is a good one for 5-on-5 play. Over the last five weeks, Toronto ranks 25th by expected goals against at 5-on-5 and stellar goaltending was the only reason their goals against remained league-average. With their starting goalie hurt, the Leafs now have a defensive side performing poorly and unreliable goaltending.
As expected, Crosby trails the bevy of super-elite centers on this slate by Stokastic’s fantasy point projections for both DK and FD tonight. He is also carrying much lower ownership than some of those top centers and that is what makes him, and his line mates, tournament targets on this star-laden slate.
Sean Couturier (PHI vs. DET): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $6,600
It took some time, but Philadelphia finally got a top line the coaches feel they can rely on, and it features Couturier at center with Travis Konecny and Tyson Foerster. In 13 games since being assembled at 5-on-5, they are outshooting the opposition 78-57, have more than double (34) the high-danger shot attempts (16) of their opponent, and have outscored them 8-5. That stretch has seen Couturier post 10 points (just one on the power play) while averaging 3.4 shots and nearly 20 minutes in ice time per night. The difference in shot rate from earlier in the season has added 1.5 shots per game to his profile.
The biggest issue with Philadelphia is their power play as the team sits 22nd in goals per minute with the man advantage in that same four-week stretch. The good news is that they should get plenty of opportunities against Detroit as the Red Wings are the second-most penalized team in the league. It has led to them giving up the seventh-most power play goals against per game this season, and Couturier’s line is a fixture of the Flyers’ top PP unit.
Among all centers priced under $6,000 on DK and $7,000 on FD, Couturier ranks third and fourth, respectively, by fantasy point projections tonight. With so many top centers playing tonight, it’ll be easy to overlook the mid-tier options like Couturier and it’s a solid matchup at home to Detroit. He can be used in a line stack for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Jesper Bratt (NJ at CBJ): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $8,300
Even thought Bratt isn’t producing the obscene point totals he did through the first few weeks of the season, the counterbalance has been a rise in shot rate; Bratt’s last 10 games have seen his shot attempts per minute rise a whopping 66%, leading to an average of 3.5 shots per game. He is still producing, too, with four goals and six assists in those 10 appearances, but he’s also managed four DK shot bonuses in that span. All 10 of those points in his last 10 outings were at even strength, too, as that part of his production has come alive.
Bratt has been slotted with Tyler Toffoli on his opposite wing and that duo has been an offensive-generation juggernaut this season with 77.6 shot attempts, 41.5 shots, and 3.8 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on the ice together. A paltry 5.5% shooting has kept their actual goals output meagre, but that is a percentage ripe for positive regression, and facing a Columbus team that ranks 26th by expected goals against per minute over the last four weeks is a good place to start.
Bratt is carrying a lower projection than Toffoli tonight and that’s due to the latter usually being the higher-volume shooter. Bratt is one of the engines of the offense at all strengths, though, and he should be included in all New Jersey line stacks. He can be used by himself given his recent uptick in shot volume, however.
Carter Verhaeghe (FLA at EDM): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $7,400
Florida was shutout in the last game and one of the in-game changes they made was to move Verhaeghe back to the top PP unit. It was weird they took him off in the first place, considering the team has been generating 30% more shot attempts, 28% more expected goals, and 83% more actual goals per minute with him on the top power play than off it. All the same, that move back to the top PP unit is key for him as 26% of his production this season has been with the man advantage. It isn’t a huge ratio, but it is still a big boost to his DFS profile.
There are two keys about the matchup in Edmonton. First, in the five weeks under their new coach, Edmonton allows 63% more expected goals against with their top line off the ice at 5-on-5, and Verhaeghe should often avoid that matchup as he skates on the second line. The next key is that Edmonton gives up the fourth-most power plays per game to the opponent, and that could lead to plenty of opportunities for Verhaeghe and his improved PP slotting.
Verhaeghe is another player in the mushy middle that should avoid heavy ownership due to price and a road matchup. His 3.6 shots per game make him a player that can be used by himself in tournament formats, but PP correlation with Matthew Tkachuk, at least, brings a line stack into play.
JJ Peterka (BUF at ARI): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $6,500
Both of these teams played last night, and both these teams are playing their fourth game in six days. Arizona technically has the rest advantage because of the home matchup, but this is a game with a 6.5 total and both sides have a team goal total of 3.2 or higher. Peterka was held off the scoresheet last night in Buffalo’s 5-2 win, but he did manage four shots on goal. He now has 38 shots on target over his last 10 games, reaching the DK shot bonus on four occasions, and scoring four times besides that. He is another winger adding more shots to his profile and it’s helping keep his DFS value solid.
Peterka is skating alongside Casey Mittelstadt and that duo has been very good for Buffalo this season by outshooting the opposition 85-66 in 173 minutes together at 5-on-5 and outscoring them 14-7. They are riding hot shooting percentages, but their dominating play bodes well for a matchup against Arizona where they may be without both their top center (Barrett Hayton) and top defenseman (Sean Durzi).
Of all wingers priced under $5,000 on DK tonight, Peterka carries a top-5 fantasy point projection and that gives him solid point-per-dollar value. He can be used as a mid-priced one-off or as part of a stack on DK tonight.
Peterka’s FanDuel price is too high considering other options in his price range, so for a higher-projected option, consider Cole Caufield (MTL, $6,600).
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Zach Werenski (CBJ vs. NJ): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $6,400
Despite his very bad team, Werenski is still having a very good season with 23 points in 29 games, averaging 2.5 shots and 1.6 blocks per appearance. The biggest issue is he’s shooting 1.4% against a three-year average of 6.3%. Once that positive regression kicks in, Werenski could be close to a point-per-game blue liner. He is averaging 27:32 per night in ice time in seven December games and that gives him an extra 3:32 per night in ice time when compared to the prior 20 games. That is a lot of ice time to rack up peripherals against a New Jersey team that likes to push the pace.
Werenski leads all defenders priced under $6,000 on DK and $7,000 on FD tonight by Stokastic’s fantasy point projections. It gives him excellent point-per-dollar value and that makes him an option in any format tonight.
David Savard (MTL vs. NYI): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $3,800
Going back to last season, Savard has 196 blocks in 69 games played, or 2.8 per game. Though injured for most of this season, he does have 20 blocks in seven games, and has reached five shot blocks in three of his seven outings. He skated 23:27 in his most recent outing, his highest ice time total since the first game of the season. Over the last four weeks, Montreal is giving up the sixth-most shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and the increased ice time and leaky defense should give Savard plenty of opportunity to get in front of some rubber.
Savard’s reasonable price, reasonable matchup, and high block rates are bringing him a point-per-$1,000 value over 2.1 on both DK and FD tonight. That makes him a salary-saving option on the blue line for DFS players looking to pay down at the position.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Joey Daccord (SEA vs. LA): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,100
The biggest issue when using Seattle goalies is a lack of shot volume; the Kraken are giving up the fewest shots against per minute over the last four weeks. It can make the goalies shaky to use because even two goals against, in a loss, can kill their value. The bright side for tonight is hosting a Los Angeles team generating the fourth-most shots per minute over those same four weeks. Seattle’s penalty kill has also improved as the season’s worn on, being top-10 for fewest shots allowed while short-handed in the last month. There aren’t a lot of difficult shots for Daccord to save, and that can help keep his goals against down.
Facing Los Angeles is keeping Daccord’s projected save total tonight outside the bottom-10 goalies, and he’s also outside the bottom-10 goalies by expected goals against. That combination, plus a cheap price, makes him the seventh goalie on the board by expected point-per-dollar value, and thus a target for tournaments.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
TB1: Brandon Hagel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Confirmation on this trio may need to wait until their morning skate mid-late afternoon, but Tampa Bay went to this top line configuration after just a few shifts in the team’s recent 7-4 win over Edmonton. Changing the lineup after a big win doesn’t seem likely, but we need to wait for that morning skate.
If this trio is together, it’s a superlative top line for Tampa Bay. In 180 minutes together at 5-on-5 this season, they are generating 73 shot attempts, 3.6 expected goals, and 4.5 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are monster offensive numbers, and they face a Calgary team that has given up 20 goals in six games since the injury to starting netminder Jacob Markstrom.
A heavy price and a road matchup is leaving TB1 with low single-digit ownership tonight for tournaments. That low ownership number is nearly doubled by top-2 stack probability, per the Top Stacks tool here at Stokastic, giving them positive leverage. It makes them a solid option for tournament stacking.
ARI1: Clayton Keller – Alex Kerfoot – Nick Schmaltz
This is another line we don’t have confirmation on, and considering Arizona played last night, we may not get confirmation until warmups; 8/12 games will have locked by that point. The safety valve is that Kerfoot skates on the top PP unit, so even if he’s moved off the line at even strength, it’s still a power play stack.
It is the power play we’re focusing on here, too. A lot of Arizona’s top-line DFS value is due to the man advantage as 53% of the point production from Schmaltz and Keller has been with the man advantage. Tonight, they host a Buffalo team that is 25th by shots allowed per 60 minutes while short-handed over the last four weeks, ranking 28th by goals against per 60 minutes. That the Sabres don’t take a lot of penalties has been their saving grace, but the penalty kill has been awful, generally speaking.
We may not get confirmation on this trio until after the slate locks, and that could leave this cheap-ish line that is in a good matchup with very low ownership. Again, it’s not confirmed, and the worst-case scenario is that it turns this trio into a power play stack. It is a gamble for tournaments but the ownership may pay off.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
