Sunday winds down the weekend with a short three-game featured slate that locks at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Giannis Antetokounmpo stands out as the best fantasy producer, with some Phoenix Suns popping up in a dream matchup against the visiting Washington Wizards. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, December 17
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Houston Rockets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 59.11 | FanDuel: 58.42
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 6.1% | FanDuel: 13.4%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $12,300
Don’t look now, but the Houston Rockets are on a five-game winning streak, including knocking off the defending champion Nuggets in Denver. Though the Bucks are 7-point favorites in Milwaukee, Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and Alperen Sengun are not going to roll over quietly.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has the best raw fantasy projection, which should be no surprise with a shallow six-team player pool. DraftKings has the more favorable salary for the two-time NBA MVP, though while he rates out as the third-best fantasy-point-per-dollar option, the optimizers are not picking him up due to the $11,400 cap hit. On FanDuel, he is more expensive and just outside the top 15 point-per-dollar plays, but he is popping up on twice as many rosters. On both sites, the best lineup with Antetokounmpo is within 3 points of the optimal lineup in the 1:30 p.m. ET projections.
Antetokounmpo disappointed late Saturday afternoon with his first sub-50-fantasy-point effort in nearly three weeks. But the game was a 146-114 walk in the park, as the Bucks easily dispatched the visiting Detroit Pistons and Giannis played just 26 minutes. However, he still had 22 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Over the last 10 games, the Rockets have allowed 105.0 points per 100 possessions for the best defensive efficiency rating during this stretch. That should not dissuade anyone from rolling with the matchup-proof talent of Antetokounmpo since anything that keeps this game closer and him on the court longer is in the best interests of his supporters.
Phoenix Suns vs. Washington Wizards
Sadly, Bradley Beal sprained his ankle and will miss at least the next three weeks, including this matchup against his former team. Of course, that means more opportunities for Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Jusuf Nurkic, who all grade out well across the DFS sites. Washington has a 124.0 defensive efficiency rating over the last 10 games — which is the worst in the league — while also averaging 105.55 possessions per 48 minutes for the highest pace. This game has a lofty 246.0 projected point total, which is 14 more than the Warriors-Trail Blazers tilt.
Eric Gordon (leg) is probable, as is Grayson Allen (calf), though Nassir Little (knee) is a game-time decision. If Little is out, that opens up some minutes on the wing, which will help the fantasy prospects of Gordon and Allen. Jordan Goodwin should get 24 to 26 minutes against his former teammates, with a chance to collect more if there is mop-up duty in the final frame.
Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija are solid options on FanDuel, while Daniel Gafford joins Kuzma on DraftKings as a player to target. Jordan Poole topped 30 fantasy points for the first time in six games on Friday, with a season-high eight assists and tying his scoring mark with 30 points. Of course, that game was against the Pacers, so caveat emptor with the former Warrior.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors
This is a back-to-back for both teams, as the Trail Blazers lost in Portland to the Dallas Mavericks 131-120 and the Warriors won at home 124-120, besting the Brooklyn Nets.
Jonathan Kuminga saw a second consecutive start over Andrew Wiggins, who has struggled for nearly a year now. Brandin Podziemski has started with Draymond Green suspended, and he has seen a dramatic salary increase over the last two weeks. That could hopefully keep some less savvy gamers away, which would be a good thing. Podziemski has produced 24-plus fantasy points in seven of his last nine games, which is lightyears ahead of Wiggins.
Klay Thompson has scored 54 points over the last two games on the strength of 12-for-21 marksmanship from behind the arc. He is a tournament option, and Stephen Curry is a potential slate-breaker, even in his age-36 season. Since the start of last season, Curry has seen a 4% to 5% drop in his fantasy efficiency with and without Green on the court. It is worth noting that his field goal rate drops from 50.0% to 47.1%, and he also sees a slight downtick in his assist percentage.
Thompson (36), Curry (35), Podziemski (32) and Chris Paul (30) were the only Warriors to top 30 minutes. There is always a chance that Paul will get some in-game rest if the contest is out of hand in the second half, but otherwise everyone is currently healthy.
Jerami Grant (concussion) returned from a four-game absence in style with 27 points while playing a whopping 38 minutes. Anfernee Simons led the team with 33 points and logged 35 minutes, with Shaedon Sharpe (32) the only other player to top 30 minutes. Simons and Grant are the primary options, while Deandre Ayton, Scoot Henderson and Sharpe are in the second tier.
Toumani Camara can be considered for salary relief on DraftKings ($5,200) if nothing else shakes free, and Matisse Thybulle has that designation on FanDuel ($4,100), particularly with blocks and steals being awarded 3 fantasy points on the blue site.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Jonas Valanciunas is an interesting option in the sports wagering market with a +120 line on his under 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop. Per the true odds of -102 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a crazy 9% expected ROI resulting from the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -110 posted at Pinnacle for under 29.5 PRA demonstrates this very concept. We can see that DraftKings has under 29.5 priced at +120. Be a savvy shopper!
NBA Bet Pro has Valanciunas projected for 32.1 minutes, 15.92 points, 11.36 rebounds and 2.73 assists for 30.01 PRA. The current available wager has a 49% win probability, so snagging the bloated +120 line on DraftKings is crucial.
Valanciunas has 46, 37 and 31 PRA totals in his last three games, though that was with an average of 35 minutes per game, and the first two were against the depleted frontcourts of Charlotte and Washington. The third came against Minnesota. If we look at the last 13 games, Valanciunas has surpassed 30 PRA only four times (30.7%). Foul trouble, blowouts, etc., are just a few of the potential things working against him in this matchup against the Spurs in San Antonio.
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