Sunday Night Football features the Baltimore Ravens taking the best record in the AFC to Jacksonville. The Jaguars possess a half-game lead over the Indianapolis Colts for the AFC South crown, so they will be breathing fire tonight. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Ravens-Jaguars DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Ravens-Jaguars DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Ravens-Jaguars DFS Picks
Baltimore Ravens: 22.5 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Lamar Jackson as the QB2 on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the full Week 15 player pool, trailing only Jalen Hurts. Jackson has five rushing touchdowns, which is the most he has tallied in the last three seasons. But while he is toting the rock 9.5 per game, he has fallen do just 49.5 rushing yards per appearances, which is the lowest since he was a part-time starter his rookie season.
On the passing front, Jackson tallied 316 yards and a trio of touchdowns last week against the Rams. That was his second-best effort of the season and hopefully portends good things ahead tonight. Jacksonville has the second-best rushing DVOA, and while it is 10th against the pass, opposing teams are racking up the aerial stats on volume. Beginning with Week 10, here are the last five quarterbacks to face the Jaguars: Brock Purdy (296/3/0), Will Levis (158/2/0), C.J. Stroud (304/2/0), Jake Browning (354/1/0) and Joe Flacco (311/3/1).
Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Jackson currently has the third-best odds for the NFL MVP. Hopefully Tyreek Hill is a quick healer, as he is in the top 5, though there is one more position player who has an outside chance at stealing the hardware this season.
TLDR: Load up on Lamar!
Running Back
Just two opposing ball-carriers have rushed for more than 70 yards against Jacksonville this season: Bijan Robinson (105) in Week 4 and Christian McCaffrey (95) in Week 10. Over the last three games, none of the Baltimore running backs have been on the field for more than 46% of the snaps. This has become a jumbled mess, with coach John Harbaugh working in the varied skillsets as he sees fit.
The matchup is not a good one for Gus Edwards since he has just 10 targets on the season, and over the last two games he has 14 carries for 41 yards. In a game of this magnitude, it is probably Jackson who will get the carries inside the 5-yard line.
Rookie Keaton Mitchell is likely the “best” fantasy option, as he has shown a nice burst that can get him in the open field, and he is an adequate pass catcher. In his last two games, he averaged nine carries for 59 yards and had two targets in each game, resulting in three receptions and 33 yards.
Veteran Justice Hill is the best pass blocker, and while he is a decent rusher, there is no consistency in his workload. In Week 12 he was on the field for 20 snaps, getting five totes for 31 yards and one target. Last week he was on the field for 30 plays but did not carry the ball once and saw just two targets. He is a better option than Edwards with a significant salary discount and especially if the Gus Bus stays out of the end zone.
Wide Receivers
Rookie Zay Flowers has really elevated his play over the last two games, with 18 targets for 11 receptions, 85 yards, a pair of touchdowns and another on a 37-yard carry for good measure. Clearly a trio of tuddies is buoying the fantasy points, but he does lead the team in targets and also has four games with double-digit targets. These two last two games, of course, were without Mark Andrews, which has sort of reshuffled the deck.
Odell Beckham Jr. also had 10 targets last week against the Rams, catching four balls for 97 yards and a touchdown. He has scored in three of the last five games, with his lone 100-plus yard performance coming in one of the other two. He is finally healthy and looks to be capable of performing as a WR2 and adding in some spice to the offense.
Rashod Bateman (5,4) and Nelson Agholor (2,5) have been splitting the WR3 role as Beckham ascends up the ranks. Devin Duvernay had two targets in Week 9, but since then only the preceding four wideouts have gotten any opportunities.
Tylan Wallace has been on the field for 10 offensive plays over the last three games, but the second-year wideout has been disappointing with just 13 career targets for six receptions and 56 yards despite being a fourth-rounder out of Oklahoma State last season.
Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely has played on 73% or more of the snaps over the last three games, with Andrews going down early in Week 11. The sophomore tight end has seen his targets increase from two to six and finally a season-high seven last week. Likely is not coming with any discount on FanDuel ($8,000) or DraftKings ($6,800), but he is a core option. Even if he does half of the damage that David Njoku did last Sunday, he will have his supporters smiling.
Charlie Kolar will be on the field for 15 to 20 snaps, but he has just two targets this season and eight for his career after being a fourth-round selection from Iowa State last year. He was a full-time starter for the Cyclones over his final three seasons, averaging 52.3 receptions 681 yards per campaign and scoring 20 total touchdowns. It is a little surprising that he has not made more of an impact, but he is a viable wild-card option at the minimum salary on both DraftKings ($200), entering the mix for those building 25-plus lineups, and FanDuel ($5,000) as a differentiator for those crafting upwards of 75 rosters.
Defense/Special Teams
The Ravens lead the league with 49 sacks, and Jacksonville has ceded six in the last two tilts. On the turnover front, each team averages around 1.5 giveaway/takeaway per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 19.0 Points
Quarterback
This is going to be a tough matchup for Trever Lawrence against the second-best passing DVOA, with the running game also dealing with the ninth-rated defense. It was impressive that the third-year field general was able to play last week after suffering a severe ankle sprain on Monday Night Football the prior week. Jacksonville has lost its last two games and three of the last five, which has allowed the Indianapolis Colts to keep pace in the AFC South standings.
Baltimore has yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season, though Matthew Stafford came close last week with 294 yards, albeit in an overtime game. Lawrence is without Christian Kirk, which does not help matters, nor does the left side of the offensive line being banged up, with guard Ezra Cleveland nursing a knee issue and tackle Walker Little dealing with a hamstring strain.
Running Back
Travis Etienne is basically tied with Lawrence from a median fantasy projection standpoint, and both trail Jackson by just over 4 fantasy points on DraftKings, while Etienne loses 2Â points in the half-PPR scoring format on FanDuel. However, Etienne does have the coveted “bell cow” designation, with nearly 20 touches every game. He has notched double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last nine, even under half-PPR rules.
D’Ernest Johnson will be on the field for around one-third of the snaps, and he is in line for half a dozen touches. Rookie Tank Bigsby is completely out of the rotation, seeing the field on just six offense plays over the last three games.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley has barely come off the field since Kirk was injured on the first drive in Week 13, and he leads the team with 97 targets. Clearly he is a capable WR1, even after missing the better part of two seasons, but he will have the full attention of the Ravens tonight. Zay Jones had 14 targets last week but just five catches for 29 yards. Still, even if he has a 50% catch rate on 8 to 10 targets tonight, he is a viable fantasy contributor.
Rookie Parker Washington has stepped in the snaps vacated by Kirk, but he is still well down the pecking order for targets. He did get three last week, catching two for 27 yards and, most importantly, his second touchdown of the season. He has been in the painted grass each of the last two games, and he has been assigned a fair salary for his potential production.
Tight End
Evan Engram is the favorite target for Lawrence, and he has posted a pair of monster games the last two weeks, with 21 targets, 20 receptions, 177 yards and a trio of tuddies. While those are his only touchdowns on the season, he does warrant consideration for the multiplier slot in tournaments.
Luke Farrell is typically on the field for 40% of the snaps, and though he has just one target in the last two games, three weeks ago he had five. He is a potential discount dandy on DraftKings ($1,200) but a little harder to justify on FanDuel ($8,000). Brenton Strange (foot) is questionable, though he rarely sees the field. Despite having seven targets this year, he has just one in the last six games.
Defense/Special Teams
Jackson is usually good for two or three sacks per game, but he has only six picks on the season. The Jaguars are averaging about two sacks per game, though they have a league-leading 24 takeaways.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Ravens-Jaguars DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Jaguars
- Lamar Jackson: The real question is, how many lineups should we create without Action Jackson?
- Travis Etienne: Improved role in the passing game gives him a few paths to fantasy success.
- Zay Flowers: Should see plenty of targets tonight.
- Isaiah Likely: Adequate fantasy-point-per-dollar ratio and may be underrepresented for a one-game slate.
- Evan Engram: Will be wildly popular, but for good reason.
- Trevor Lawrence: If he were fully healthy, he would be second on this list.
- Baltimore D/ST: One of the best defenses, real and fantasy.
- Justin Tucker: Best kicker in league history; has missed four of five from 50-plus this season but just one inside that distance.
- Calvin Ridley: Baltimore will blanket him tonight.
- Odell Beckham Jr: Will the breakout continue?
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Jaguars
- Brandon McManus: Ten-year veteran has been stellar in his first season outside of Denver, 5 of 7 from beyond 50 yards.
- Zay Jones: Just how much volume will he see? That is the biggest question.
- Keaton Mitchell: No salary relief for a part-time role.
- Parker Washington: Lots of pressure on the youngster; a third consecutive touchdown is unlikely.
- Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor: Coinflip when considering salary; Bateman has a 60/40 edge otherwise.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Jaguars
- Gus Edwards: Needs at least 50 yards and a touchdown to break even on his salary.
- Jacksonville D/ST: Better real-life defense than a fantasy one.
- D’Ernest Johnson: Does not get high-value touches.
- Justice Hill: Mercurial workload, but the salary savings on DraftKings ($2,600) is noteworthy.
- Charlie Kolar: Just a feeling, best used on DraftKings at $200 — otherwise no hard evidence to point to a breakout tonight — defined by three targets and a couple of catches.
- Luke Farrell: Should get a pair of looks as a baseline.
- Jamal Agnew: Pro Bowl returner has been activated from the injured reserve by Jacksonville; not likely to see any offensive touches but not completely off the table if Washington struggles. He is at the minimum salary on the main DFS sites and has 11 targets and four carries.
- Tim Jones and Elijah Cooks: DraftKings only, around lineup 100.
- Patrick Ricard: 300 pounds of blocking fury; four targets on the season, with just one since Week 7.
- Tank Bigsby: Needs about 10 things to break his way to be relevant tonight.
- Tylan Wallace: Likely returning kickoffs and punts with Devin Duvernay on the injured reserve. Not much of an offensive presence.
- Josh Pederson, Joc Pederson, C.J. Beathard, Bobby Beathard, Brenton Strange and Doctor Strange: Sorry, not in this universe.
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