Saturday brings a succinct four-game featured slate with a 7 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. We have narratives with LeBron James celebrating his 39th birthday, a trade that has the Knicks playing short-handed and big injury news pending regarding the status of Luka Doncic. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, December 30
Jalen Brunson: New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 50.26 | FanDuel: 48.33
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 28.7% | FanDuel: 39.8%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $9,000
Things got a little spicy this afternoon as the Knickerbockers swung a deal to acquire OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors. Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn will also be heading to the Big Apple, with RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley moving up north.
That means we have a short-handed New York squad playing on a back-to-back. They’re playing for the third time in four days and for the fifth time since last Saturday. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be in line for ample opportunities, even after playing heavy minutes last night. Isaiah Hartenstein gets a slight boost over his baseline, but that is also due to this fantasy-friendly matchup.
Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo will see elevated offensive responsibilities and minutes, with one likely sliding into the starting lineup for Barrett. My best guess is that Hart fills that void so DiVincenzo can serve as the second facilitator off the bench — but he should play alongside Brunson. Quentin Grimes is a longshot to get his second start of the season, but at the near-minimum salary on DraftKings ($3,100) and FanDuel ($3,800), he projects as a popular discount dandy… even though it feels… well, grimy.
Miles McBride is likely to get a season-high in minutes. However, his current season-high is a 14-minute outing in a blowout against the Washington Wizards back in November. He has played a grand total of 30 minutes this month, which ends tomorrow. Caveat emptor!
The Knicks’ defense should get better with OG Anunoby, but that won’t happen tonight, and the squad has the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league for December, allowing 122.6 points per 100 possessions. Indiana has one of the most efficient offenses in the league, and if Tyrese Haliburton doesn’t get a fourth-consecutive game with 60-plus fantasy points tonight, it will be a disappointment.
Jalen Smith is the most popular center-only play on FanDuel, where he is projected to be on nearly one-half of all rosters. DraftKings has granted him power forward eligibility, so he is likely to be on one-third of tournament rosters there. Buddy Hield and Myles Turner should also be on the short-list for this shallow four-game slate.
Tyrese Maxey: Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 46.8 | FanDuel: 45.09
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 6.4% | FanDuel: 23.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $8,800
Depending on the status of Luka Doncic (quad), who has missed two of the last five games, Tyrese Maxey could go from a strong tournament option to chalk in a hurry. Joel Embiid remains out, but Nicolas Batum (hamstring) is poised to return after missing half a dozen games. The 76ers are playing on the wrong end of a back-to-back tonight. They’re also playing their third game in four days and their fourth in six.
Maxey dropped in 42 points last night in Houston, leading the team to a 131-127 victory, but he did play 41 minutes. Chicago is without Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine, which means another game of Andre Drummond in the post. Drummond may be a top-notch rebounder and able to score almost at will in the paint, but he is not much of a rim protector, which bodes well for Maxey.
Paul Reed should be left for tournaments only, but his wildly variant production levels make him an interesting option. He could get 40 fantasy points like he did two games ago, or he could fail to get out of the teens as he did in games on either side of that performance.
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Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Happy birthday, LeBron James! The King is celebrating his 39th birthday today. Despite his age, he still manages to be a top-10 player night-in and night-out. He and Anthony Davis are carrying their usual questionable designations, but they needed to play just 25 and 26 minutes on Thursday as the duo dispatched the visiting Charlotte Hornets 122-112.
The Lakers play again tomorrow in New Orleans, which is a remember-me game for Davis, so keep that in mind. This duo could get some in-game rest if the Timberwolves take care of business tonight. Minnesota is currently installed as a five-point favorite, so this is far from a lopsided affair.
The Timberwolves have been a top-five defense for most of the year, with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns getting better together. Anthony Edwards is the top play, with Towns, Gobert and Mike Conley rounding out the core four. Towns has been dealing with a sore knee, so if he is out, Naz Reid would likely be elevated to the starting lineup and Kyle Anderson would also see some trickledown fantasy production
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
It is NEVER fun going against Stephen Curry, but his under is currently the best betting opportunity on OddsShopper. The under on his 28.5 points prop will cost you just +105. Per the true odds of -110 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a stellar 7% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% for your ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -123 posted at the “sharp book” Pinnacle for under 28.5 points demonstrates this very concept. It is also helpful to see how the -115 for an extra point on that under, slightly edging out the positive line currently available on DraftKings.
NBA Bet Pro has Curry projected for 33.1 minutes and 28.42 points. The current available wager has a 52% win probability, which makes getting the best line available key since this wager is likely to come down to the wire.
In the eight games since Draymond Green began serving his most recent suspension, Curry has averaged 32.7 minutes and 18.1 field goal attempts with a 43.1% conversion rate and 22.8 points per game.
That is lower than what we usually see from arguably the best marksman in the history of the game, but he is going to be 36 years old this spring. In the five games since his NBA-record streak of making a 3-pointer for 268 games ended, Curry is averaging 10.4 attempts from behind the arc with a 40.4% success rate, which is why he is nicknamed the Human Torch.
Rooting for unders may not be as fun as rooting for overs, but that is where the line value is more often than not when it comes to player props, as the sportsbooks look to use psychology against casual bettors.
Get ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium when you sign up through this link for BetMGM. There is also a first-bet bonus promotion of up to $1,500 back in credits if the bet loses. Check out this link for full details.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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