Lions-Cowboys DFS Picks: Jared Goff or Dak Prescott, Who Ya Got?! (December 30)

Saturday Night Football features two playoff-bound squads, which are also vying for the best record in the NFC as the Detroit Lions head into Dallas to take on the Cowboys. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Lions-Cowboys DFS picks for the Saturday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Saturday Night slate, so check out these Lions-Cowboys DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Lions-Cowboys DFS Picks

Detroit Lions: 23.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Jared Goff as the QB15 on DraftKings and the QB16 on FanDuel when looking at the full Week 17 player pool. This has been a strong season for the three-time Pro Bowler. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game (265.6) among all quarterbacks with at least nine starts. The former top pick of the 2016 NFL Draft also ranks third in passing touchdowns with 27. He does have 10 interceptions and a 1.9% interception rate that is just below his career average, but he has been picked off only two times in the last five games.

Dallas has the eighth-ranked passing DVOA, though the team has allowed their three highest yardage totals of the season over the last three games while also getting gashed by opposing running backs. Goff is a savvy veteran who will take what the defense gives him. Having two tremendously talented running backs as well as one of the best wideouts and a top-tier tight end… well, let’s just say this should be a fun game to watch.

Running Back

After getting gouged by the Buffalo Bills for 266 yards and a trio of touchdowns on 49 carries, Dallas held the Miami Dolphins to a mere 91 yards on 26 rushing attempts. The Cowboys have the 14th-best rushing DVOA, though Detroit still has the upper hand by being ranked fourth overall.

In the seven games since the Week 9 bye, David Montgomery has averaged 14.4 carries for 75 rushing yards, reaching the end zone five ties, while turning 13 targets into 10 receptions for another 51 yards. Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 11.1 carries for 67.6 yards, with a whopping seven touchdowns along with 34 targets for 23 catches 151 yards and another score.

During this stretch, Craig Reynolds has set foot on the field for about two offensive plays per game, but he has no touches or targets. Look to the dynamic duo tonight as core options and they can be employed on the same roster.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks fifth in receiving yards per game with 92.9, sixth in yards after the catch and third in first downs. His eight touchdowns and 20 plays of at least 20 yards both rate out as the seventh best. Just play him!

Sam LaPorta is having one of the best rookie campaigns ever for a tight end, and he already is the first to have 70 receptions, 700 yards and seven touchdowns in the same season. While he won’t get to Mike Ditka’s rookie record of 1,076 receiving yards, which Ditka put together in a 14-game season, no less — LaPorta should get to the 81 catches that Keith Jackson had for the Eagles — but it may take him an extra game to get there.

The duo of St. Brown and LaPorta dominates the team’s target share, with Gibbs coming in third with 67 opportunities. Things thin out behind them, but there are still viable options, including Jameson Williams (7, 6 and 1 targets over the last three games), Josh Reynolds (4, 3, 4) and Kalif Raymond (2, 1 and 4). Williams and Reynolds will likely be on the field for around 60% of the offensive plays, while Raymond usually sees action on 33%. He has the best chance for an end-around, jet sweep or some other schemed gadget play.

Donovan Peoples-Jones is likely to get on the field for a handful of snaps, and he has one target in each of the last four games. Brock Wright is out for the second consecutive week with a hip injury, so expect James Mitchell to be the TE2. He had 29 snaps last week and 92 on the season but no targets. Anthony Firkser saw his first two offensive snaps last week but was not targeted.

Defense/Special Teams

Dallas actually leads the league with a scant 13 turnovers this season, while the Detroit defense has been a little below average with 19 total takeaways. The Lions are averaging just over two sacks per game, though they have nine in the last three. The Cowboys have been slipping over the last month, ceding 14 quarterback takedowns, after giving up zero in the three games preceding this stretch.

Dallas Cowboys: 28.75 Points

Quarterback

Dak Prescott has put his interception troubles behind him. After leading the league with 15 last year, he has just seven this season, cutting his pick rate from 3.8% to 1.4% — well below his 1.9% career figure. The Lions are average at best against the pass, and Nick Mullens just cut them up for 411 yards and two tuddies, even with a ghastly four interceptions. That was the fourth time this season the team has allowed more than 320 passing yards.

Prescott has thrown 38 or more passes six times this season, averaging 34.4, on his way to a league-leading 30 touchdowns. While he hasn’t been much of a runner since his gruesome ankle injury in 2020, he has averaged around 22 yards on 4.8 carries over the last four games. The Cowboys need this win to pull out of their current two-game slide and remain in contention for the top record in the NFC as well as the NFC East.

Running Back

Rico Dowdle is out, so that means Deuce Vaughn will be backing up Tony Pollard. The sixth-round rookie out of Kansas State has just five offensive snaps since Week 5 and has often been a healthy scratch. For the season, he has 21 carries for scant 38 yards, though he has converted all six of his targets for 30 more. He did have nearly 5,000 yards from scrimmage in his three seasons with the Wildcats, scoring 43 touchdowns in his 37 games. However at 5-foot-6 and 172 pounds, do not expect him to do much more than give Pollard a break now and then. Fullback Hunter Luepke could also get a few non-Pollard carries.

Pollard has had a rough season. He didn’t start to look like his old self until the last couple of weeks, and even then, he doesn’t have the same burst and efficiency that earned him Pro Bowl honors last year. The offseason surgery to repair his ankle ligaments and fractured left fibula, which he injured in the playoff loss to San Francisco, took time to heal. Fantasy gamers and couch potatoes need to remember that not every athlete gets superhuman healing powers.

Opposing teams have not seen any running back crack 70 rushing yards against the Lions this season. Pollard should be in line for around 20 touches tonight and he can contribute in all facets of the game. Getting into the end zone will be the make-or-break point for his fantasy fortunes tonight.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb ranks third in the league with 94.9 receiving yards per game. He has the second-most first downs and plays of more than 20 yards.  He has tied his career-best nine touchdowns with two games to go and he has more receptions than any other player in the league. Much like my assessment of the Sun God: just play him!

Second-year tight end Jake Ferguson is second on the team with 90 targets. He has filled the Dalton Schultz void nicely. He has eight targets in each of the last four games and should be in line for a similar workload tonight. Last Sunday, no other Cowboy saw more than two targets outside of Lamb and Ferguson.

Over the last three games, NFL nomad Brandin Cooks has 13 targets (2, 6 and 5), with Michael Gallup seeing eight (2, 1 and 5). Either is capable of flirting with double-digit fantasy points in full-PPR scoring, but Cooks will be on the field around 80% of the time, while Gallup will get around half the snaps.

KaVontae Turpin will be returning kicks, and he usually sees 8-to-10 offensive plays, while Jalen Tolbert gets more than double that action but seems to have fallen back into a tie situation with Gallup for snaps, routes and targets. Turpin is an extreme punt option with about a 50/50 chance at an offensive touch tonight. Tolbert and Gallup should not be played on the same lineup as any sustained success will likely come at the expense of the other.

The backup tight ends will be Peyton Hendershot and Luke Schoonmaker. Each is live for a target, but neither has more than two since the Week 7 bye.

Defense/Special Teams

Goff does a good job limiting sacks with only 13 total in the last eight games. While Dallas averages nearly three per tilt, the Cowboys have just four total sacks in the last four games. Each team gives and gets about a turnover and a half per contest.

Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Lions-Cowboys NFL DFS Rankings 

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Lions-Cowboys

1. CeeDee Lamb: Slight edge over his counterpart, due mostly to home-field advantage.
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown: Very much in play for the multiplier-slot, even in “cash games” (i.e. H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.)
3. Dak Prescott: Anything less than two touchdowns and 250 yards should be considered a disappointment.
4. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: The former on DraftKings for full-PPR scoring, the latter on FanDuel if the $1,000 brings about a good upgrade at another position.
5. Sam LaPorta: Rookie phenom. Tight ends seem to have magical powers on island games.
6. Jared Goff: Better in the flex spot since his running backs could get red-zone rushing scores.
7. Tony Pollard: Just three touchdowns since Week 1, none in the last three games. Sorry buddy, tough season.
8. Jake Ferguson: How many times did we find success with Dalton Schultz over the last couple of years? Well, this kid could be even better!
9. Brandon Aubrey: Rookie has not missed a field goal all season, nailing eight from 50-plus yards including one from 60, 42 of 45 (93.3%) on PATs, but we can accept that.
10. Michael Badgley: The Money Badger bided his time on the practice squad, finally being elevated two games ago. Only one field goal attempt on the season, but he did convert on 9 of 10 extra points in his pair of performances. Five teams over six seasons, with just 62 total games, he is league average at best — but a salary saver and in a climate-controlled venue.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Lions-Cowboys

1. Jameson Williams: Stone hands but comes at a discount.
2. Brandin Cook: Gets it done at every stop.
3. Deuce Vaughn: Better play on DraftKings for a grand, has a not-so-grand total of 12.8 full-PPR fantasy points in five games. Best outcome is probably a couple of catches for 20 yards. Could end up with negative fantasy points with the way he runs the ball.
4. Dallas D/ST: Need a splash play, but anything is possible in front of their rabid fan base.
5. Kalif Raymond and Josh Reynolds: Raymond should get a couple of schemed looks and is $1.500 on FanDuel and $1,000 less on DraftKings. Also returns puns and occasionally kickoffs, though Aubrey has 90 touchbacks on his 97 kickoffs.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Lions-Cowboys

1. Michael Gallup: Live for tournaments, hard to trust.
2. Jalen Tolbert: Looked like he was putting it together, but has slipped back to replacement level at best.
3. Lions D/ST: Not a bad unit, just not great and facing a top-shelf offense.
4. Hunter Luepke: Probably a higher floor than Vaughn, but his ceiling is predicated on a touchdown in a crowded offense.
5. KaVontae Turpin: Returns kicks, will get an offensive cameo and maybe even a target, but not enough of a discount. Leave for those building north of 75 lineups.
6. James Mitchell and Peyton Hendershot: TE2s at $300 on DraftKings, in play for single-lineup builders with a high risk tolerance for what they open up across the rest of the roster.
7. Luke Schoonmaker: More of a blocker, loses out in passing situations to Hendershot now that he is back to full health.
8. Donovan Peoples-Jones: Live for a target, but not much more.
9. Craig Reynolds: It’s a wrap.

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