Oct. 26 dials things back after Wednesday’s monstrosity, with a more sedate pair of games running at consecutive times. The action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, and there are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. How will the 76ers respond to the defection of James Harden, and what will the Bucks look like after making a major change at point guard? Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, October 26
Today we get a look at the Philadelphia 76ers, who are in Milwaukee taking on the Bucks as the last two teams to take the court this season. The Suns and Lakers each played on Tuesday, though it looks like there are some additional wrinkles, as Devin Booker is listed as doubtful with a sore foot and Bradley Beal is getting more time off to recover from a back ailment. Finally, LeBron James played just 29 minutes on Tuesday, with coach Darvin Ham indicating this may be the new baseline. Game flow and victory potential will be a major factor in the soon-to-be 39-year-old going over 30 minutes.
Core Play of the Day — Joel Embiid — Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 55.53 | FanDuel: 54.77
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 39.5% | FanDuel: 54.3%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,300 | FanDuel: $11,200
Joel Embiid is the reigning NBA MVP, and once again he has to deal with yet another teammate checking out. James Harden was clearing his head and not working out as he was away from the team — so he is behind on the conditioning curve. It would be a surprise to see him play this season, but the 76ers have punted on that challenge until Sunday, with a game in Canada between now and then.
Last year with Harden off the court, Embiid averaged nearly 1.7 fantasy points per minute, which is nearly a 10% increase in his efficiency. On FanDuel, where only one center-only player may be employed per roster, Embiid has a 22-fantasy-point advantage in median projections over Jusuf Nurkic and a 26-fantasy-point edge over Brook Lopez.
There is not much else to add regarding The Process on a short slate other than it is likely a savvy strategy to be over the field when it comes to his tournament representation.
Giannis Antetokounmpo — Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 52.04 | FanDuel: 50.56
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 33.0% | FanDuel: 18.2%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,000
Tonight Giannis Antetokounmpo is the other player with a projection of greater than 50 fantasy points. In his last seven regular season meetings against Philadelphia, Antetokounmpo has at least 52 DraftKings points, with an average of 63 fantasy points per game. Those figures on FanDuel are a floor of 48.8 fantasy points and an average of 62.
The biggest change for the Bucks is the addition of Damian Lillard and the exit of Jrue Holiday. This may take some field goal attempts and, to a lesser extent, potential assists, but overall this should help the efficiency of Antetokounmpo by opening up the lane more, as defenders will have to deal with Lillard from beyond the arc — heck, even out by the logo.
Grayson Allen and Jevon Carter were also moved out as part of the offseason transactions, with Malik Beasley and Cameron Payne added into the mix. Jae Crowder is likely to get more minutes than he saw last year, and, of course, Khris Middleton seems to finally be healthy. Until we get a better look at the rotations, Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton and Brook Lopez are likely the most trustworthy options.
Bobby Portis should see decent backup frontcourt minutes, though he really needs someone to be out or mop-up duty to have a real fantasy impact. Pat Connaughton is still around, but it is hard to see him with more than low-20s minutes, and the offense that departed with Allen was more than replaced by Beasley and Payne.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Jarred Vanderbilt remains out, so it is likely going to be Taurean Prince in the starting lineup. Do not expect another 18-point performance, as it is unlikely he will shoot 75% from the field and 67% from downtown. However, he should have a secure 28- to 30-minute baseline, which is still valuable on the short slate, with his discounted salary.
Anthony Davis started off strong but fell off during the second half. He is still the best fantasy producer on the team, particularly with LeBron James having a soft minutes cap in games that are not competitive. James playing less means more offensive opportunities for Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell, though that is not any guarantee of production.
Turning our attention to the bench, it looks like Gabe Vincent is going to be the main offense off the bench, but he is not likely to be in the standard closing lineup. That is going to curb his minutes around 20 to 22 most games, though lopsided games should give him more opportunities.
Rui Hachimura and Christian Wood should have a path to 15 or so minutes, with one getting a hot hand or foul trouble potentially rebalancing this to a 20- and 12-minute situation. With the thin player pool, this duo does have fleeting value; however, it is unlikely both have good games unless it is purely on the strength of both running out the action in a blowout and getting most of the fourth quarter as Davis and James are watching from the bench.
Kevin Durant should put up something in the mid-20s for points if Devin Booker (heel) and Bradley Beal (back) are out as expected. Jusuf Nurkic should also get more offensive opportunities, and as long as he stays out of foul trouble, he should be in a 27-20 minutes split with Drew Eubanks at the pivot. Eubanks is an extreme punt where he has power forward eligibility, and as we saw on Tuesday and even while he was in Portland, he can collect fantasy production in a hurry, plus he is not scoring dependent.
Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen should get a few extra field goal attempts as the team divvies up his 20 shots. Both players are scoring driven, so not particularly strong DFS options. Jordan Goodwin is the big winner and the most likely to join the starting five for the suddenly short-handed Suns. He should get at least 25 minutes and could see as many as 30 if he is able to keep the offense moving along in a mostly capable manner.
Last and potentially least — if he is not dropping his shots — is the offensively challenged Josh Okogie, who should get ample minutes with his ability to capably guard three different positions.
Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Tonight Okogie is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market, with a -130 line to record over 15.5 combined points + rebounds + assists (PRA). NBA Bet Pro currently has Okogie as a slightly negative value with +110 “True Odds,” which is how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI, and in this case, it is indicative of a line that is shading in favor of the books, with a -5% expected ROI. That is not a horrible number, but it is not efficient either.
Currently Okogie projects for 32.2 minutes, 10.68 points, 5.96 rebounds and 1.97 assists for 18.61 PRA. Last year his per-36 minutes averages were 14.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists for 23.6 PRA; when adjusting for his minutes projection, that is just under 20 PRA. This is based on 26 starts and 77 total appearances, though without Booker and Beal on the court, this is almost like playing with the second unit tonight.
De’Anthony Melton is another player to consider with his -130 line to record over 15.5 PRA. NBA Bet Pro currently has this with -126 True Odds, so you can see that it is slightly favoring the sportsbooks, with a -1% expected ROI, though it presents as a better opportunity over an extended time horizon than the Okogie bet.
Harden is out, which means more backcourt minutes are open and Melton should see solid run tonight, even if he is coming off the bench. Last season Melton had per-36-minute averages of 13.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists for a solid 21.6 PRA. Tonight he is projected for 32.4 minutes, 10.62 points, 4.91 rebounds and 3.19 assists for 18.72 PRA.
While these averages and median projections are all above the target for tonight for both players, they do not account for reality and a wide range of outcomes; that, of course, is where the moneyline comes in. Tonight it would seem that the overs on both of these bets are decent probabilities of at least giving us something to root for that should be in play most of the night — unless, of course, we get lucky early.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
When you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by bet365 – new users, use this link receive $150 in bonus bucks when you make your first $5 wager. Full details can be found here.
