Wednesday marks the middle of the week with a compact six-game featured slate, locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks like a great option in all formats. Additionally, there is a fair amount of injury news pending, plus all of the known situations for the 76ers. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Wednesday, December 27
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 57.06 | FanDuel: 58.21
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 6.4% | FanDuel: 7.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $11,500
There are a lot of question marks at the top of the projections list with Luka Doncic (quad) and Giannis Antetokounmpo listed as game-time decisions and Donovan Mitchell (illness) has not played in nine days, so he may have some conditioning questions if he takes the court tonight. Ideally some or all of this trio will be available, as it will increase the tournament intrigue.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on a back-to-back, though he was only needed for 33 minutes last night, with just three in the final frame, on his way to 34 points, six rebounds, nine assists, a pair of steals and a block. The most impressive part is that this all came at the expense of the Minnesota Timberwolves who have one of the best defenses in the league this season. Tonight is a matchup against at New York squad that has allowed 124.4 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, for the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league.
The Thunder have been in Oklahoma City since December 17th, so unless anyone had Christmas travel plans, everyone should be relatively fresh. Everyone is healthy and the rotation has been seeing 10 to 12 players getting run, so Chet Holmgren is really the only other fantasy relevant player at this time, though there is a fair amount of center value, so the opportunity cost is high for the former Gonzaga Bulldog.
New York has been on a roll, winning three of the last four games, including holding off the Milwaukee Bucks for a 129-122 Christmas victory in Madison Square Garden. Jalen Brunson has continued to build on his breakout season and he had 38 points in the victory. Julius Randle has been a solid secondary option and even though he can be distracted during games and lose focus, he is a steady 40 fantasy point producer.
Isaiah Hartenstein also has been a fine play since Mitchell Robinson was lost for the season and if you play in season long leagues, grab him off the waiver wire as people are asleep at the switch. From a DFS perspective, he is a standout play on FanDuel with power forward eligibility. DraftKings has him as a center-only option, but we can roster two with the utility slot, but with ample competition for those spots tonight.
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic
Joel Embiid and Nicolas Batum remain out and after gamers were let down by the 76ers on Christmas, they may not want to head back to this squad in a road matchup against a strong defense. Do not be dismayed by the 4-for-20 (20.0%) performance by Tyrese Maxey, better games are ahead. The 23-year-old has made giant strides from his 30 fantasy points per game last year, to someone regularly producing in the low-40s. He and Tobias Harris will take on more of the scoring load with Embiid out and this duo along with Kelly Oubre Jr. are the trio to target from the ‘Sixers.
Paul Reed broke thousands of hearts on Christmas with five fouls holding him to just 17 minutes. He is once again a tournament option, but that sort of sadness is lurking again. Mo Bamba took advantage of the extra run piling up 18 points, six rebounds, two assists and a pair of steals in 26 minutes. He went 7of-8 (87.5%) from the field, sinking all three of his triples, but that is not sustainable. It is worth noting he should be familiar with the shooting background tonight, having spent the first four and a half years of his career in Orlando.
This is a back-to-back for the Magic, who crushed the Wizards 127-119 in Washington last night. Gary Harris is questionable and may not play and Joe Ingles and Jonthan Isaac also carry the same designation. Jalen Suggs returned to the starting lineup last night after missing a few games with a wrist injury, but he is not currently on the injury report.
None of the Magic currently project for more than single-digit popularity in the large-field tournaments, though that could change if the questionable players are ruled out.
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Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets
As mentioned above, Antetokounmpo is questionable, so if he ends up sitting, there will be value among the remaining ambulatory Bucks. Brooklyn played last night and have already ruled out Spencer Dinwiddie, Nicolas Claxton and Cam Johnson for rest and Dorian Finney-Smith (knee) is questionable. Once the dust settles, there should be several solid options from this matchup at various salary levels.
Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a strong DFS play, we can hedge out some of that risk by looking to the +100 line on his under 33.5 points prop. Per the true odds of -115 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a stellar 7% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
It is crucial to take advantage of OddsShopper to look at all the available lines since that can easily be worth another 2% to 3% for your ROI, even on perfectly neutral bets, based on how the different books value things. Looking at the screenshot below, the -131 posted at Pinnacle for under 33.5 points demonstrates this very concept. The line at PointsBet is even more punitive at -110, with one point less than the figure at most other books.
NBA Bet Pro has Gilgeous-Alexander projected for 35.7 minutes and 32.33 points. The current available wager has a 53% win probability, which makes getting the even-money wager at DraftKings a priority.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.0 points per game, which is similar to his 31.4 of last season. In his last 15 games, he has more than 33.5 points on four occasions, including just edging over the milestone in each of the last two games with 34 points. He fell short twice, with 33 points, so while this is an appropriate mark, particularly considering the poor defensive abilities of the Knicks, it is still a solid strategy to take the under.
Rooting for unders may not be as fun as rooting for overs, but that is where the line value is more often than not when it comes to player props, as the sportsbooks look to use psychology against casual bettors.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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