NBA Player Props: Huge +EV Spot With Joel Embiid Play (April 20)

Thursday features three NBA playoff games, and as is common in the postseason, rotations are anticipated to be condensed. To maximize the value of NBA player props, it is essential to subscribe to NBA Bet Pro. Projections for today’s 76ers-Nets props are highly favorable, so let’s get into the top three +EV plays for the slate.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | April 20

3. Tyrese Maxey Over 2.5 Assists (-103, BetRivers)

This line seems like a bit of an overreaction to Maxey’s last game, in which he had zero assists despite playing 40 minutes. Instead, he took on a scoring role, dropping 33 points on 23 shots. Prior to that one game, Maxey was a safe over on 2.5 assists, doing so in nine of the previous 11 games. Plus, he averaged 3.5 assists per game this season and recorded at least three assists in over half his games. He also went over 2.5 in both regular-season matchups against the Nets.

This is not projecting to be a productive game for 76ers assists, as only James Harden projects for more than four. That said, Maxey is the 76ers’ No. 3 option and NBA Bet Pro has him at 3.4 assists tonight, which is nearly a full assist over the total. As such, this prop is getting a 55% win expectancy and a whopping 9% expected ROI.

Don’t forget that you can get in on these projections for 7 days free! Sign up for NBA Bet Pro for this deal, and see how you should best attack betting on the 76ers-Nets in Game 3 tonight.

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2. Torrey Craig Over 4.5 Rebounds (-118, BetRivers)

This is a direct result of the Suns shortening their rotation of bigs. Jock Landale and Bismack Biyombo got some minutes in Game 1 of this series, and Craig finished with only four rebounds. Biyombo then played 15 in Game 2 and Craig had just three rebounds. Well, in this one, NBA Bet Pro projects Landale to get almost no playing time and for Biyombo to see a downtick, and thus Craig is projecting for 6.0 rebounds in almost 30 minutes. Aside from Deandre Ayton, no other Phoenix big projects for more than 12 minutes.

With Ayton, Craig and Kevin Durant handling almost all of the frontcourt minutes, rebound projections are largely consolidated among the three. But since Ayton and Durant are getting fair lines, Craig is emerging as the best value, with a high EV of 10%.

1. Joel Embiid Under 4.5 Assists (-156, FanDuel)

Basically, NBA Bet Pro is projecting an even distribution of assists among the non-Harden 76ers — with Maxey and Embiid at near identical assist projections in the 3.5 range. However, their lines are two full assists apart, creating huge value on Maxey’s over and Embiid’s under. In fact, the under on Embiid 4.5 assists has a 67% win expectancy, easily the highest win rate of the high-EV bets today.

Now, Embiid’s line is slightly more on pace with his season average (4.2 per game this year), and he is coming off a seven-assist Game 2 against Brooklyn, but he has also been under 4.5 assists in five of his last eight games. As such, even with the unsightly -156 odds, this prop is the No. 1 play of the day.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.