We can debate all day about whether Thanksgiving food is actually good. But if you don’t love Thanksgiving football, I’m sorry, you’re wrong! We’re getting to the end of the regular season for season-long and best-ball leagues. If that’s not enough fun, we can take some shots at a million dollars on DraftKings. Here’s a full game-by-game breakdown along with my top NFL DFS picks for the Thanksgiving main slate to help you prepare.
NFL DFS Picks: Thanksgiving Main Slate at DraftKings
Packers-Lions NFL DFS Analysis | Thanksgiving
Green Bay Packers NFL DFS Picks
Quarterback
The Detroit Lions defense has given up the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past five weeks, according to Fantasy Points. Jordan Love ($5,500) had the first 300-plus yard passing game of his career in Week 11. Love has some moderate rushing upside, averaging 18.2 rushing yards per game. He has the fifth-best projection of the six quarterbacks on the slate. He will be without Aaron Jones and Luke Musgrave. Dontayvion Wicks could sit, too.
Running Backs
The Lions’ defense has given up the tenth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs over the past five games. A.J. Dillon ($5,400) is expected to take on a majority of the backfield work this week with both Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson out. Make sure Dillon is active before rostering him, as he is also questionable with a groin injury. Patrick Taylor ($4,200) has played 34.5% of snaps in three games with Jones out, taking just six carries but adding 10 targets on 38.5% route participation. Thus, Taylor has some standalone value — and some extra contingent value in case of injury or blowout.Â
Wide Receivers
The Lions’ defense has given up the tenth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past five games. Christian Watson ($4,300) leads the Packers in route participation and is tied for the lead in target share over the past two games, at 72.4% and 13.8%, respectively. Romeo Doubs ($5,000) is second on the Packers in route participation and tied for the lead in target share over the past two games, at 66.7% and 13.8%, respectively. Jayden Reed ($4,200) is third among active Packers in route participation and tied for the lead in target share over the past two games, at 59.8% and 13.8%, respectively. He also had three carries for 46 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 and could see more work on the ground while Jones is sidelined. Dontayvion Wicks ($3,200) is unlikely to play on Thanksgiving due to a knee injury and concussion, but he has not been ruled out. Wicks would be a nice low-owned dart throw if he is active, as he has 37.9% route participation with 9 targets over the past 2 games. Malik Heath ($3,000) is a large field dart throw only, as a receiver who will likely see time as the WR4 if Reed or Wicks misses the game.
Tight Ends
The Lions’ defense has given up the 26th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past five games, so this isn’t a great spot for them. Tucker Kraft ($2,500) appears to be the next man up for the Packers with Luke Musgrave now on injured reserve, especially with Josiah Deguara questionable. Kraft already ran routes on 29.9% of dropbacks and saw four targets over the past two games, and the athletic 6-foot-5 rookie could step into a significant role.Â
Defense
The Packers Defense ($2,800) has the lowest projection of any defense on the slate, but it’s a volatile position. The Lions have turned the ball over 14 times this season, which is about average.
Detroit Lions NFL DFS Picks
Quarterback
The Packers’ defense has given up the 26th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past five games. Jared Goff ($6,300) has the second-best projection of any quarterback on the slate. Goff has just 14 rushing yards in 10 games this season.
Running Backs
The Packers’ defense has given up the 26th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs over the past five games. Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800) has played 56.9% of snaps over the past two games, getting 22 carries and adding 11 targets while running routes on 52.1% of dropbacks. Gibbs has the third-best running back projection on the slate. David Montgomery ($6,300) is down to a 39.0% snap share over the past two games, getting 24 carries and just 2 targets in that span. Still, Montgomery has the 6th best running back projection on the slate.
Wide Receivers
The Packers’ defense has given up the 27th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past five games. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,500) leads the Lions in route participation and target share over the past two games, at 90.1% and 29.4%, respectively. Josh Reynolds ($3,500) is third on the Lions in route participation and target share over the past two games, at 73.2% and 8.8%, respectively. Jameson Williams ($3,400) is fourth on the Lions in route participation and fifth in target share over the past two games, at 54.9% and 7.4%, respectively. Kalif Raymond ($3,000) is a large field dart throw. Raymond is fifth on the Lions in route participation and tied for fourth in target share over the past two games, at 31.0% and 8.8%, respectively.
Tight Ends
The Packers’ defense has given up the 11th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past five games. Sam LaPorta ($5,200) is second on the Lions in route participation and target share over the past two games, at 76.1% and 14.7%, respectively. It’s a slight downgrade for LaPorta with both running backs healthy; in five games with either Montgomery or Gibbs out, LaPorta’s target share is 22.1%, while it is just 15.7% in the five games with both healthy.
Defense
The Lions Defense ($3,200) has the third-best projection of any defense on the slate. The Packers have just 12 turnovers on the season, slightly below average.
Commanders-Cowboys NFL DFS Analysis | Thanksgiving
Washington Commanders NFL DFS Picks
Quarterback
The Cowboys’ defense has given up the 21st-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past five games. Sam Howell ($6,200) has the fourth-best quarterback projection on the slate. Howell is averaging 19 rushing yards per game this season and has added two rushing touchdowns.
Running Backs
The Cowboys’ defense has given up the 25th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs over the past five games. Brian Robinson ($5,900) played 77.9% of snaps in week 11 with Antonio Gibson out, getting 17 carries and adding 8 targets on 59.6% route participation. Gibson is currently questionable, and if he misses, Robinson will likely see a very heavy workload again. Robinson will be in play regardless of Gibson’s status, though, as he has taken 60% of the team’s carries on the season and saw a promising 6 targets in week 10 even with Gibson active. Antonio Gibson ($4,500) is also in play if he is active. Gibson has just 30 carries on the year, but he also has 35 targets on 44.9% route participation.
Wide Receivers
The Cowboys’ defense has given up the 28th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past five games. Terry McLaurin ($5,400) leads the Commanders in route participation and target share over the past two games, at 83.8% and 16.9%, respectively. McLaurin has the sixth-best projection of any wide receiver on the slate. Jahan Dotson ($4,600) is second on the Commanders in route participation and tied for third in target share over the past two games, at 80.8% and 6.7%, respectively. Curtis Samuel ($3,600) was ejected early in Week 11. In Week 10, he was fourth on the team in route participation and third in target share, at 51.1% and 9.1%, respectively.
Tight Ends
The Cowboys’ defense has given up the 10th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past 5 games. Logan Thomas ($3,500) is third on the Commanders in route participation and second in target share over the past two weeks, at 76.8% and 14.6%, respectively.
Defense
The Commanders Defense ($2,500) has the fifth-best projection of any defense on the slate. The Cowboys’ offense has turned the ball over just 10 times this season.
Dallas Cowboys NFL DFS Picks
Quarterback
The Commanders’ defense has given up the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past five games. Dak Prescott ($6,800) has the best projection of any quarterback on the slate by a wide margin. Prescott is averaging 14.1 rushing yards per game this season and has added two rushing touchdowns.
Running Backs
The Commanders’ defense has given up the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs over the past five games. Tony Pollard ($6,700) has played 66.9% of snaps in the past two games, getting 27 carries and five targets on a 51.1% route participation rate. Pollard has the second-best projection of any running back on the slate. Rico Dowdle ($4,600) has 20 carries and 2 targets over the past two games. Dowdle has some standalone value and strong contingent value in a potential blowout. Dowdle is officially questionable with an ankle injury, but he is expected to play.
Wide Receivers
The Commanders’ defense has given up the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past five games. CeeDee Lamb ($8,700) leads the Cowboys in route participation and target share over the past two weeks, at 81.8% and 25.9%, respectively. Lamb has the best projection of any receiver on the slate. Brandin Cooks ($4,500) is third on the Cowboys in route participation and second in target share over the past two games, at 63.6% and 16.5%, respectively. Jalen Tolbert ($3,100) is 4th on the Cowboys in route participation and target share over the past two weeks, at 50% and 11.8%, respectively. Michael Gallup ($3,700) is fifth on the Cowboys in route participation and target share over the past two weeks, at 44.3% and 8.2%, respectively. KaVontae Turpin ($3,000) has just 12 targets on the season but makes for a fine large-field dart throw.
Tight Ends:
The Commanders’ defense has given up the 12th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past five games. Jake Ferguson ($3,900) is second on the Cowboys in route participation and third in target share over the past two games. Ferguson has the third-best projection of any tight end on the slate.
Defense
The Cowboys Defense ($3,800) has the best projection of any defense on the slate. The Commanders offense has turned the ball over 21 times this season, tied for most in the NFL, and Howell has been sacked 51 times, 13 more than any other quarterback.
49ers-Seahawks NFL DFS Analysis | Thanksgiving
San Francisco 49ers NFL DFS Picks
Quarterback
The Seahawks’ defense has given up the 16th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past five games. Brock Purdy ($6,100) has the third best projection of any quarterback on the slate. Purdy is averaging 12.1 rushing yards per game this season and has added two rushing touchdowns.
Running Backs
The Seahawks’ defense has given up the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs over the past five games. Christian McCaffrey ($8,700) has 37 carries and 14 targets over the past two games. McCaffrey has the best projection of any running back on the slate by a wide margin. Elijah Mitchell ($4,200) hasn’t had as big of a role as many expected coming into the year. Still, he has 12 carries over the past two games, and it would not be surprising to see the 49ers work him in a little bit more on a short week.
Wide Receivers
The Seahawks’ defense has given up the 26th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past five games. Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000) is tied for the team lead in route participation and second on the team in target share over the past two games, at 82% and 17%, respectively. Deebo Samuel ($5,900) is tied for the team lead in route participation and third in target share over the past two games, at 82.0% and 15.1%, respectively.
Tight Ends
The Seahawks’ defense has given up the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past five games. George Kittle ($6,000) is third on the team in route participation and leads the team in target share over the past two games, at 80.3% and 24.5%, respectively. Kittle has the second-best projection of any tight end on the slate.
Defense
The 49ers Defense ($3,600) has the second-best projection of any defense on the slate. The Seahawks have turned the ball over just 11 times this season.
Seattle Seahawks NFL DFS Picks
Quarterback
The 49ers’ defense has given up the 22nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past five games. Geno Smith ($5,600) is on track to play despite being questionable, but he has the worst projection of the six starting quarterbacks. Smith is averaging just 6.5 rushing yards per game with zero rushing touchdowns this season.
Running Backs
The 49ers’ defense has given up the 19th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs over the past five games. Zach Charbonnet ($5,300) likely takes over as the lead back with Kenneth Walker doubtful. Charbonnet has seen 11 targets over the past two games, and after Walker left in Week 11, Charbonnet finished with 15 rushing attempts. Charbonnet should see elite usage in a tough matchup. DeeJay Dallas ($4,400) played just 7 snaps in Week 11 but has some contingent value.
Wide Receivers
The 49ers’ defense has given up the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past 5 games. DK Metcalf ($6,500) leads the Seahawks in route participation and target share over the past 2 games, at 80.2% and 21.8%, respectively. Metcalf has the 4th best projection of any receiver on the slate. Tyler Lockett ($6,000) is second on the team in route participation and target share over the past two games, at 73.6% and 19.5%, respectively. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,100) is third on the team in route participation and target share over the past two games, at 64.8% and 12.6%, respectively.
Tight Ends
The 49ers’ defense has given up the 24th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends over the past five games. Noah Fant ($2,700) is fourth on the Seahawks in route participation and target share over the past two games, at 51.6% and 5.7%, respectively.
Defense
The Seahawks Defense ($2,600) has the fourth-best projection of any defense on the slate. The 49ers have turned the ball over just 9 times this season.
Final NFL DFS Thanksgiving Slate PicksÂ
To tie a bow on it, here are some of my favorite and least favorite plays.
Quarterbacks
Good chalk: Dak Prescott
Neil’s Nobodies (Favorites under 15% ownership): Jordan Love
Running Back
Good chalk: Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Jahmyr Gibbs
Bad Chalk: Zach Charbonnet, AJ Dillon
Neil’s Nobodies: Antonio Gibson, Rico Dowdle
Wide Receivers
Good Chalk: CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel
Bad Chalk: McLaurin
Neil’s Nobodies: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jalen Tolbert, Josh Reynolds
Tight Ends
Good Chalk: Jake Ferguson, George Kittle
Bad Chalk: Sam LaPorta
Neil’s Nobodies: Tucker Kraft (if his low ownership miraculously holds)
Defenses
Good Chalk: Dallas Cowboys
Bad Chalk: Seattle Seahawks
Neil’s Nobodies: Washington Commanders
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