To win the big-money NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, we need ceiling performances across the board. Stokastic’s boom/bust probability tool is a useful way to get a sense of the best plays at each position, and we’ll be going through the tool to find the NFL DFS upside picks for Week 10.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 10 High-Upside Picks & Boom Plays
To get a better understanding of the boom and bust tool for DraftKings and FanDuel, let’s revisit the legend below which details all of the key terms you will see referenced throughout the article.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
Now, on to the Week 10 NFL DFS picks!
Quarterback: Geno Smith
DraftKings – $5,800; 10.7% Boom | FanDuel – $6,900; 10.0% Boom
Geno Smith is near the top of the quarterback position as far as DraftKings boom probability ratings for the Week 10 main slate, along with the likes of Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. Smith and the Seahawks will come up against the Commanders in one of the more favorable matchups they’ll see this season.
At time of writing, Smith has a 10.7% boom probability rating to go with an 11.4% optimal rate on DraftKings and a 10.0% boom probability and 12.5% optimal rate on FanDuel ahead of Week 10.
The Seahawks are projecting as one of the better teams to target with stacks this Sunday, so it’s logical to see Smith grade out well at his $5,800 DK and $6,900 FD salaries. He’s cheap and in a winnable matchup, and he’s easy to stack with the likes of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, both of whom are also priced at reasonable levels.
Running Back: Joe Mixon
DraftKings – $6,200; 16.3% Boom | FanDuel – $7,700; 12.2% Boom
In a Week 10 matchup with the Texans, Joe Mixon is rating out favorably in DFS boom probability on both sites. He’s tops at the running back position with a 16.3% boom number on DraftKings, with that number dropping to 12.2% on FanDuel.
Mixon continues to operate as the lead back and get involved in the passing game on top of his backfield work, and his NFL DFS salaries on both sites won’t break the bank. Cincinnati owns the slate’s highest implied team total at 28 points, to boot, so there’s a good chance game script will work out in Mixon’s favor in this spot.
Analyzing the OddsShopper’s player pages, we find Mixon with a rushing yards prop of 65.5 and a receiving yards prop of 20.5 at home against the Texans. He is at -150 to score a touchdown at any point in the game.
Wide Receiver: Amon-Ra St. Brown
DraftKings – $8,300; 11.6% Boom | FanDuel – $8,600; 9.2% Boom
Considering this Lions/Chargers game has the highest over/under of the week, we can expect to see both teams targeted heavily for NFL DFS purposes. One of the more appealing options is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has proven to be as consistent of a target hog as there is in the league when healthy.
The Stokastic DFS boom probability ratings have St. Brown at an 11.6% boom probability on DraftKings and a 9.2% boom probability on FanDuel. The playmaker is seeing all the snaps he can handle and is coming off three consecutive 100-yard receiving games since returning from a minor injury.
St. Brown populates in the Week 10 optimal lineup at an 18.2% rate based on Stokastic’s DraftKings simulations, and that number is at 23.0% on FanDuel. For the time being, Detroit’s number one receiver is projected for 20.6% ownership on DraftKings and 19.3% ownership on FanDuel.
Tight End: T.J. Hockenson
DraftKings – $5,000; 20.6% Boom | FanDuel – $6,600; 13.1% Boom
Though he’s been dealing with a rib injury, T.J. Hockenson is expected to be active in Week 10 against the Saints. We’ll need to make sure there is no late news about his status or health before plugging him into lineups, but as of now Hockenson is included in projections and has the highest boom probability of anyone in the DraftKings player pool at his $5,000 asking price.
The Vikings tight end has a 20.6% boom probability on DraftKings and a 13.1% boom probability on FanDuel, and assuming he’s all good injury-wise, he should continue to be counted on heavily with Justin Jefferson still not ready to return.
Hockenson is populating in 19.4% of optimal lineups on DraftKings and 13.2% of optimal lineups on FanDuel — this optimal lineup rate metric comes from Stokastic’s NFL DFS simulations for Week 10.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 10 Lower-Upside Situation
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for NFL DFS. Each week we will take a look at a seemingly less exciting game to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
Browns/Ravens
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens welcome Deshaun Watson and the Browns for an AFC North battle in Week 10. Baltimore is a six-point favorite in a game that has a low total of 38.5.
We can use boom and bust probability data for individual players to see who may be worth a look. A review of the current top five DraftKings boom probabilities filtered for the Browns and Ravens:
Ravens D/ST (7.0%)
Amari Cooper (3.1%)
Browns D/ST (3.1%)
David Njoku (2.5%)
Elijah Moore (2.2%)
On FanDuel:
Ravens D/ST (11.0%)
Mark Andrews (3.5%)
Browns D/ST (2.8%)
Lamar Jackson (2.4%)
David Njoku (1.5%)
In a battle of two strong defensive units, it’s the Ravens D/ST that has the top boom probability on both sites in this matchup. Remember to go through all of the data at each position as you finalize your Week 10 NFL DFS lineups!
As a general reminder, projections are one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and other factors like ownership projections, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing daily fantasy football lineups.
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