In this article, we will take a journey through the NFL Sims process. I’ll be sharing my initial reactions and thoughts as we dive into the world of NFL DFS lineup building with the help of our trusty Contest Simulations Tool. Here, specifically, we focus on NFL DFS Week 9.
Keep in mind that my perspectives may evolve as the weekend progresses, but this article offers a unique peek into how I interpret the results in the Sims, a valuable skill for your DFS journey.
NFL DFS Week 9 – DraftKings NFL Sims Preview
Before we get into the week’s analysis, here is a short breakdown of each of the components of the Stokastic NFL Sims tool.
Contest Generator: An industry first! Create a pool of lineups that reflects projected ownership for a given slate. See which players, lineups, and stacks are likely to comprise the field (available only for NFL & NBA).
Pre-Contest Simulator: Take into account both what is happening on the field and with competing lineups. Simulations pit lineups against each and derive simulated profitability for each, resulting in a superior ranking methodology to any other tool.
Post-Contest Simulator: Stop tweaking your process based on yesterday’s results–a sample size of one is meaningless. Instead, leverage simulations to review ROI for DraftKings contests at the individual lineup, user and player level.
Ownership Analysis: Starting with the Contest Pool
When starting up the Sims process, we start by building a contest pool with our Contest Generator to see who the chalkiest plays of the week are.
Notably, Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs emerge as the frontrunners, particularly in the running back category, known for its consistency and trustworthiness. Additionally, both backs are very trustworthy, so I don’t see a ton to be worried about on the surface.
Furthermore, when looking at the Pool Exposure compared to our historical ownership, we see that the pool exposure is slightly higher in both cases. Our current version of the Contest Generator more closely represents the Slant’s exposures whereas the historical ownership more closely represents the Milly Maker. Since the Slant is a bit sharper it gives me a bit more confidence to lean into those plays even more despite the high ownership.
But one player on our list doesn’t spark excitement: Demario Douglas as the chalky wide receiver, paired with Mac Jones. At first glance, this feels like a fade, considering Douglas’s modest price and unproven track record. We do know that Kendrick Bourne is out, but even so, it’s not like Bourne was lighting up the scoreboard.
However, if salary constraints become a factor, we might consider including him in a few lineups. Just like the running backs, the pool exposure is higher than our ownership projections, indicating there may be higher ownership among sharper players.
The rest of the top of the list looks reasonable so we will look at the next tier of the players and determine if they are good or bad chalk in the Sim results.
Stacks: Finding the Winning NFL DFS Combos
This week’s main slate presents a challenge with low game totals across the board, except for the Cowboys vs. Eagles matchup. As has been discussed a lot in our Discord channel, the NFL Sims tool really likes to stack 2 pass catchers with the quarterback. But with these low totals, it has felt a bit less necessary to go to 2+ man stacks.
Based on the top 150 lineups in this sim run I got stack exposures of QB+1 = 32%, QB+2=50%, and QB+3=18%. These seem very reasonable, but given the recent trends that we are seeing, I am probably going to try to lessen my correlation this week a bit and maybe go with splits of QB+1=40%, QB+2=50%, and QB+3=10%. I plan on doing that by unfavoriting some of the lowest QB+3 teams and favoriting some QB+1 teams that are just outside of my original cut list.
Among the specific teams favored by the Sims, the first four really stand out. Derek Carr is the quarterback that the Sims want all the leverage on with an exposure of 34% compared to a projected ownership of 7%. Carr is a great quarterback to stack because he gets so few of his points from rushing which leads to a high correlation between him and his pass catchers. Additionally, his price is cheap, which will help us get away from a chalky cheap player like Douglas whom we discussed earlier.
Carr hasn’t crushed yet this season and is unlikely to here as well with a game total of only 38.5, but he’s scored over 20 DraftKings points in three straight weeks and 20 points might be enough to get into a winning lineup this week. Carr is exactly the type of play that you aren’t excited about, but the DFS Sims are rightfully pointing him out to us. I don’t think it’s necessary to use him in 34% of your lineups so I would probably use some ROI down boosts on him, but I like what I see.
The next two quarterbacks aren’t nearly as contrarian. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are the two highest-owned players, with both coming in with double-digit projected ownerships. The thing that you want to be careful with on both of these is, unlike Carr, they get so many of their points from rushing which makes it a lot harder to make big stacks with them.
Luckily for us, the sim is smart enough to see this and in the top 150 lineups has only stacked Hurts with one pass catcher in every instance and Jackson with either one or two pass catchers at most. In the times that it stacked Jackson with two pass catchers, it tended to always go with Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, which makes a lot of sense as they are both quality plays.
The final quarterback that we see at over 5% initial exposure is Mac Jones. A lot of the Jones lineups come with the previously mentioned Douglas. In fact, Douglas is coming in 65% of my lineups overall, which seems aggressive to me. I am not sure if I will be over or under the field on Douglas at this point, but if you are going to be playing Douglas stacking him with Jones makes a lot of sense. Just like Carr, Jones gets very few of his points from running the ball and if Douglas is the type of player that you really need to win the slate, he is likely bringing Jones along for the ride with him.
Tying it All Together: A Winning NFL DFS Week 9 Lineup Build
In conclusion, my third-best lineup embodies an attractive strategy.
Here’s an overview of the team:
We start with Derek Carr, a high-leverage option recommended by the NFL Sims. Pairing him with pass catchers Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, who boast substantial upside, could set us up for success.
Josh Jacobs and CeeDee Lamb, popular but strong plays, form the core of the lineup. To round it out, we include some high-upside players like Emari Demercado, Jonathan Taylor and Dalton Schultz.
UPDATE: Emari Demercado has now been ruled OUT for Week 9.
This format should provide insights into how I approach the Sims when crafting lineups. Hopefully, this helps to provide some more information on how I think through the tool each week.
Let me know if you have any additional ideas going forward! Best of luck on your NFL DFS Week 9 adventures.
