It is Stokastic’s first Friday night slate of the NHL DFS season, and with it is just a pair of games. There is a showdown of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, the two top forwards of this generation, while New Jersey is at home to a rising Arizona team that hopes to follow in the Devils’ footsteps in the coming seasons. There is a lot of potent offense across the two tilts, so let’s get to the top NHL DFS picks and stacks.
Stokastic members are encouraged to check in the Discord for updated lineup and injury information as lock approaches.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Center Picks Today
Jack Hughes (NJ vs. ARI): DraftKings – $8,100 | FanDuel – $9,500
It is the second game in as many nights for New Jersey, and that is always precarious for a team. The upside is this is the very beginning of the season, so the team is hopefully more rested than they would be two or three months from now, and none of the its forwards reached 19 minutes in ice time yesterday. Hughes led the way at 18:54, so he’s clearly still at the top of the pecking order even with the depth of the Devils forwards.
With New Jersey’s current lineup configuration, Hughes will avoid the top line matchup from Arizona. Last year, with the top line off the ice, the Coyotes allowed 13% more expected goals, and their share of expected goals generated fell from 55% to 42%. They are a bit deeper now, but the team still has a long way to go before it is a tough defensive matchup.
Hughes had two goals last night and leads Stokastic’s center NHL DFS projections on DraftKings by 29% and on FanDuel by 25%. His ice time levels, great in-game matchup and prolific shot rate put him at the top of the forward list on this slate for cash games and tournaments.
Dylan Strome (WSH vs. PIT): DraftKings – $4,100 | FanDuel – $4,600
Last season, Strome finished second in Washington in terms of points per minute at even strength. He finished the year with 65 points in 81 games, and a big reason for that was not only the even-strength efficiency but posting 21 power play points. That was a career-best mark for him, but the Washington roster is healthier now than it was in 2022-23. It may keep Strome from earning top power play minutes, but changes will be swift if the team doesn’t flourish with the man advantage.
Strome is set to open the year with Sonny Milano, and the Capitals scored 4.5 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five with that duo on the ice last year. They did shoot nearly 15%, which is a clear sign of regression, but even a mark of 10% would be good enough for 3.0 goals per 60 minutes, and that is excellent for a third line. They should be able to create offensively against Pittsburgh’s depth forwards.
Stokastic NHL DFS projections have Strome second among all centers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings and third on FanDuel. That provides good value for him and a nice pivot away from what should be a higher-owned Evgeny Kuznetsov on DraftKings.
NHL DFS Winger Picks Today
Alex Ovechkin (WSH vs. PIT): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $8,400
Despite injuries marring the Capitals last season, Ovechkin finished the year with 42 goals and 75 points in 73 games, averaging just over four shots per game. He did that with Conor Sheary being his most common opposite winger at even strength, and Sheary is a depth forward who has moved on from the organization. That is how bad the injuries were, and the team is now as healthy as it’s going to get. Health puts T.J. Oshie on the opposite side.
Nicklas Backstrom had a full offseason to train following his return from hip surgery last year. That could be huge for the power play, as the team scored 10.1 goals per 60 minutes on the man advantage over the prior three seasons with Ovechkin and Backstrom on the ice. When Ovechkin was on the power play without his usual center, that number cratered to 6.5. If the power play can regain its form, Ovechkin stands to be a big beneficiary.
Like Hughes, Ovechkin is way ahead of the next-closest winger on both DFS sites in tonight’s NHL DFS projections. It has pushed his projected ownership over 30%, and it is likely to be higher than that by lock. He has tremendous upside, though, so he should be given heavy consideration in all cash games and tournaments.
Dawson Mercer (NJ vs. ARI): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $4,400
Though he’ll be on the line that matches against Arizona’s top line, there is still a lot to like about Mercer’s matchup tonight. In the team’s first game, he led New Jersey wingers in ice time both overall and at even strength. That is a continuation of how he finished the 2022-23 season, where he averaged 18:44 in ice time per night over his final 25 games, compared to 15:36 up to that point.
Skating next to Nico Hischier last season, Mercer’s on-ice results provided a 63.8% expected goal share and 3.2 goals scored per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That goal-scoring rate isn’t elite, but it’s very good, and the added bonus is they all skate together on the power play. Last year, Arizona led the league in power plays given, and that bodes very well for the New Jersey man advantage tonight.
Among wingers priced less than $5,000 on DraftKings for this slate, Mercer is third by point projections, which makes him a solid value. He can be used by his lonesome, but pairing him with his linemates in any format is the better approach.
Mercer is listed as a center on FanDuel for some reason, so for a similarly priced winger on that site, look to Tom Wilson (WSH, $4,900), as he tops Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections in that price range.
Lawson Crouse (ARI at NJ): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,400
In New Jersey’s first game of the season, its third line struggled to generate much offensively – 1.31 expected goals per 60 minutes would be about half the league average – and it led to having to defend a lot. One game does not mean a pattern of any sort, but with center Erik Haula returning from injury in the preseason and rookie Alex Holtz on the wing, it might take time to hit their stride.
Those stumbles, if they persist, could help Crouse immensely tonight. He is slated to start on the third line, which has typically been a dead zone for offense in Arizona going back years, but this team is much deeper up front than at any point in recent memory. It puts Crouse on a line with Matias Maccelli, the second-year player who led Coyotes forwards in five-on-five assists per minute a year ago, finishing in the 94th percentile of regular forwards across the league. It gives Crouse – a good shooter – a viable playmaker.
The road matchup and third-line slotting are leaving Crouse with very low projected ownership, landing around 4% on both sites. On a slate with just two games, that is something to be coveted and makes Crouse a tournament target.
NHL DFS Defense Picks Today
Erik Karlsson (PIT at WSH): DraftKings – $6,700 | FanDuel – $6,800
He didn’t get on the scoresheet in Pittsburgh’s first game, but Karlsson was very involved, with a pair of shots, three blocks, over 26 minutes of ice time and two-thirds of the team’s available power play action. The Penguins generated 16 shots in his 22:30 of even strength ice time, and if that persists, the goals and points will follow.
On both sites, Karlsson is second behind Washington’s John Carlson in points projection, though it is very close on FanDuel, and the difference is mostly just the home/away matchup. Being on the road where the two other high-priced blueliners are at home should keep Karlsson’s ownership lower than theirs, and that’s the thing to look for in tournaments. He is viable all by himself or in some type of Penguins stack.
Sean Durzi (ARI at NJ): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $3,900
In a continuing theme for the early portions of this NHL DFS season, a player that was traded during the summer is being priced far too low. Durzi is expected to run Arizona’s top power play unit, and last season he was consistently priced in the $4000 to $5000 range on DraftKings while running the second power play unit in Los Angeles. He is being priced as if he’s a third-pair defenseman that will skate 16 minutes, and that’s just not the case.
Going into New Jersey isn’t a particularly good matchup, but options are limited and Durzi will likely see his price rise by $1,000 to $1,500 on both sites when Arizona plays next. It will give Durzi very high ownership – and he currently leads those projections – but he is also a top salary-saving option for this slate.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks Today
Karel Vejmelka (ARI at NJ): DraftKings – $7,100 | FanDuel – $6,900
As it stands, Vejmelka is last among the four goalies by Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections. He is also the only one of those goalies that is projected to face at least 35 shots tonight. In fact, he’s the only goalie projected to face more than 33 shots, and he’s the cheapest option this evening. The matchup against New Jersey means he is projected for the most goals against, but that’s the way things go on such short slates.
Last year, the Coyotes netminder made 49 starts and saved at least 35 pucks – enough for the DraftKings save bonus – in 12 of them. Those 12 games saw him average over 21 DraftKings points despite allowing 3.5 goals per game. It all depends on the shot volume and actual goals allowed, but Vejmelka has a reasonable chance of a very good fantasy performance.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NJ1: Jack Hughes-Jesper Bratt-Tyler Toffoli
Last year, with Bratt and Hughes on the ice, the Devils generated 4.2 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those are tremendous offensive numbers, and their first game of the season was even better than that. Even if the trio don’t all skate 20 minutes, the level of efficiency they operate under means they don’t really need it, especially on a short slate. Avoiding Arizona’s top line while being perfectly correlated on the power play are added bonuses.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this Devils threesome at the top of the list by top-2 stack probability. They aren’t carrying the most ownership, though, and that makes them a good leverage spot for tonight, even with just four teams playing.
PIT2: Evgeni Malkin-Rickard Rakell-Reilly Smith
Over the last two seasons, in over 770 minutes of five-on-five ice time together, the Washington duo of Wilson and Kuznetsov was on the ice for 2.9 expected goals and 2.9 actual goals against per 60 minutes. Those marks are considerably worse than both the team and league average; it is not a good defensive line. The third line duo of Milano/Strome was even worse so those second- and third-line matchups that this Pittsburgh trio will face are good for them.
Among the four second lines on this slate, Pittsburgh’s is second (behind New Jersey) in top-2 stack probability on both sites. On DraftKings, at least, they are projected to be the third highest second-line stack by ownership, and that gives them good leverage for this evening.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
