CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 7 DFS picks and projections for Saturday, Oct. 14.
CFB Week 7 DFS Picks and Projections | Saturday, Oct. 14
Quarterback
Michael Penix ($10,200): The top game on the Week 7 slate, Washington enters a contest against Oregon as a three point favorite in a game with a 66 total. While expensive, Michael Penix has clear stacking upside on this slate. On the year, Penix averages 400.8 passing yards per game, while only taking three sacks to date. The Washington offense passes 60.1% of the time, giving Penix an excellent floor for low risk contests. In general, this slate comes with tight pricing.
Bo Nix ($10,000): The counterpart to Penix, Bo Nix and Oregon have a 31.5 implied team total. Oregon currently ranks 77th in pace and passes the ball 54% of the time. Within this environment, Nix averages 281 passing yards on 32 attempts per game. While Nix only has 87 rushing yards to date, Nix rushed for 510 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. Cash lineups should play one of Penix or Nix. Nix gets a slight edge with his rushing ability.
Jalen Milroe ($8,400): Alabama enters Week 7 as a 19.5 point favorite over Arkansas in a game with a 46.5 total. This gives the Crimson Tide a 33 point implied team total and upside in this matchup. Hyper-efficient, Jalen Milroe currently averages 232.2 passing yards per game on 22 attempts. However, Milroe has elite mobility, evidenced by his 158 cumulative rushing yards. With that said, the Alabama offense has been reluctant to use Milroe’s legs at times. Over the last three games, he has designed rush attempts of 11, 3, 1. While the upside is clear, the floor on Milroe is also low.
Jason Bean ($7,000): Kansas is a three point favorite over Oklahoma State in a game with a 55.5 total. Jalon Daniels will miss this game, putting Jason Bean in position to start again. Even wish Kansas winning 51-22 over UCF last week, this was the worst possible run out for Bean. He only threw the ball 12 times for 91 yards, while rushing six times for another ten yards. Bean has actually posted solid passing efficiency through his career with elite rushing numbers. He averages 5.2 yards per carry through his career (including sacks). While Bean needs Oklahoma State to keep this close to achieve a ceiling, the spread indicates that a close game is a strong possibility.
Max Johnson ($6,500):Â A sneaky shootout, Texas A&M is a three point underdog to Tennessee in a game with a 55 total. Texas A&M only ranks 70th in pace, but Tennessee comes in third. Johnson has 210 and 239 passing yards in his first two starts against Arkansas and Alabama this year. However, both opponents rank outside the top 80 in pace. Johnson has actually posted solid passing efficiency with 49 cumulative rushing yards. He also comes in at a price point that allows additional studs on this slate.
Emory Jones ($7,300): A poor game environment overall, Cincinnati sits as a five point favorite over Iowa State in a game with a 43 total. However, Emory Jones has one of the best dual threat skillsets on the slate, which needs to be noted for tournaments. Cincinnati ranks 51st in pace and throws the ball 44.6% of the time. In this offense, Jones averages 245.2 passing yards per game on 32 attempts. He also provides elite mobility with 280 cumulative rushing yards to date. This gives him a strong ceiling despite the poor matchup.
Running Back
Dillon Johnson ($5,800): For those looking for a piece of Oregon/Washington, Dillon Johnson stands out at the running back position. Previously injured this season, Johnson emerged as Washington’s lead back last week with 16 carries and five targets. This volume in all game scripts gives Johnson a strong floor/ceiling combo. In general, paying down at running back could help jam some of the stud quarterbacks and receivers.
Ollie Gordon II ($6,200): After using running back by committee early in the year, Oklahoma State has focused their attention on Ollie Gordon II. Over the last two games, Gordon has touch counts of 23 and 22. This includes an elite pass game role, where he participated in over 60% of the routes over the last two weeks. Kansas currently allows 4.8 yards per carry to opposing rushers.
Le’Veon Moss ($5,300): Another team condensing their running back rotation, Le’Veon Moss has touch counts of 16, 21, and 17 over the last three games. Importantly, Moss saw his routes jump from 39% to 68% last week. This elevated route share marks a true feature back. Tennessee has played solid defense to date behind a relatively weak strength of schedule.
Kaden Feagin ($4,500): Both Reggie Love III and Josh McCray are injured, putting Kaden Feagin in play as a value option. Illinois enters this game against Maryland as a 14-point underdog in a game with a 51.5 total. Maryland has played excellent run defense, allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. However, Feagin has 24 carries and four targets this year, while presumed backup Aidan Laughery has a total of four touches on the season. While extremely volatile, Feagin’s price stands out on this slate. Illinois does have a propensity to use multiple backs, but time will tell how this plays out.
Jase McClellan ($6,300): Still playing in a timeshare with Roydell Williams, Jase McClellan has moved ahead in recent weeks. McClellan currently averages 15.0 touches per game for 61.5 rushing yards and another 10.5 through the air. While relatively inefficient to date, a matchup against Arkansas as 19.5 point favorites should help.
Wide Receiver
Rome Odunze ($7,900): One of the top receiver plays on the slate, Rome Odunze currently averages 121.6 yards per game on a 24.9% target share and 89.1% route share. This volume translates to 9.0 targets per game for Odunze, which dominates this team. For those looking for a tournament pivot, Jalen McMillan, La’Lynn Polk, and Germie Bernard can all be used.
Isaiah Williams ($5,500): Perpetually underprice, Isaiah Williams currently averages 83.8 yards per game on 9.5 targets. This equates to a 28.9 target share in the Illinois offense. While hitching your wagon to Luke Almyer never feels ideal, DFS provides continue to price Williams favorably.
Gary Bryant Jr. ($5,000): While Troy Franklin clearly leads Oregon in receiving opportunity, USC transfer Gary Bryant Jr. has recently taken on a larger role. Last game, Bryant jumped to an 82% route share and received six targets. He should be prioritized over Tez Johnson and Traeshon Holden, but all three can be used in GPPs.
Kaden Prather ($5,000): The entire Maryland passing attacks looks underpriced as two score favorites over an Illinois secondary that lost four starters to the NFL this offseason. Maryland ranks 46th in pace and throws the ball 53.9% of time. On the other side, Illinois ranks 15th in pace, providing shootout potential. In addition to the pass heavy offense, Maryland narrowed their receiver rotation last week. Kaden Prather, Jeshaun Jones, and Tai Felton all eclipsed 80% of the routes.
Ainias Smith ($4,900): Underpriced by $1k, Ainias Smith participated in every route and averages 7.3 targets per game over the last four games. This equates to 71.8 yards per game. Evan Stewart should still lead this team in receiving at the end of the year, but the split may be closer than initially thought.
Dont’e Thornton Jr. ($4,300): Tennessee lost Bru McCoy for the season, leaving a void at wide receiver. Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton missed last week’s game, but he should be the favorite to take over starting duties. He currently averages 3.3 targets per game for 22.3 yards, but these numbers should increase sharply moving forward.
Rashod Owens ($3,500): Perhaps the top value play on the slate, Rashod Owens was the primary beneficiary from the De’Zhaun Stribling injury announced last week. After playing a rotational role early in the season, Owens immediately jumped to an 81% target share and a received seven targets. Jaden Bray and Brennan Presley remain decent plays at their price, but Owens tops the group.
Jeremiah Hunter ($5,500): Cal enters Week 7 as an 11-point underdog to Utah in a game with a 43.5 total. These teams play clashing styles. Cal ranks 12th in seconds per play, while Utah checks in at 120th. Cal also moved to freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza, which could provide the offense more efficiency through the air. Jeremiah Hunter averages 8.5 targets per game for 56.5 yards. This volume makes him a decent GPP play behind better quarterback play.
