It is the first Saturday of the NHL regular season and there is a massive 12-game slate awaiting DFS players. Having 24 teams provides us with a lot of elite options like Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon, so parsing the non-elite forward options is going to be the focus of this article. There will be a goalie and stacks to consider at the end. Nonetheless, onto our NHL DFS picks today, featuring some Bo Horvat fun.
Stokastic members are encouraged to check in with the Discord as lock approaches because with this many teams, there is sure to be late-breaking news that will be of importance to NHL DFS lineups.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Bo Horvat (NYI vs. BUF): DraftKings – $6,000| FanDuel – $7,000
It was a tough transition to the New York Islanders after Horvat’s trade last season as he had 31 goals and 54 points in 49 games with Vancouver but only seven goals and 16 points in 30 games with New York. The good news is that both his shot rate – roughly 2.9 per game – and ice time were nearly identical to his games with the Canucks. Center Mathew Barzal was also injured for the vast majority of Horvat’s run with the Islanders, so the offensive weapons declined around Horvat.
One issue for Barzal before Horvat arrived was turning offensive possessions into scoring chances: The only forward with a higher rate of controlled zone entries per minute than Barzal last season was Jack Hughes, but Barzal’s per-minute assists on teammate scoring chances was well outside the top-100 forwards. That means the team was getting into the zone with control of the puck a lot when their top center was on the ice, but not being dangerous with that time. Horvat’s scoring ability should help Barzal a lot here, and that is something that will boost both their fantasy values.
Tonight’s DK slate features a dozen pivots priced between $5,500 and $6,500. Of those centers, Horvat is third by expected points per dollar and first among non-Calgary centers. If he and Barzal find their chemistry, prices will only rise from here and the matchup against Buffalo is a good one for the home team.
Marco Rossi (MIN at TOR): DraftKings – $2,600 | FanDuel – $3,700
It has been an arduous journey for Rossi, who missed the entire Bubble season due to COVID complications which threatened not only his NHL career but his long-term health. The ninth overall pick from the 2020 Draft rebounded very well with 16 goals and 51 points in 53 minor league games last season, showing the offensive promise he was drafted for. In his first game this season, he skated a little over 13 minutes and had a pair of shots.
One big reason for looking to Rossi tonight is the matchup. Last season, before Toronto forward Pierre Engvall was traded away, the team controlled 52.6% of the expected goals generated when their top four forwards were off the ice. After the trade, that number cratered to 44.1%, and that got worse in the playoffs. Their first game of this season was another step down. All this is to say that Toronto’s bottom two lines are weak and that makes it a good matchup for Rossi and his linemates.
Being on the road on a team’s third line has left Rossi with a very low projection, but if he starts to make good on his upside, he won’t stay at this price for long. He is a salary-saving option at center tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Zach Hyman (EDM vs. VAN): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,000
These two teams faced off in the season opener and Edmonton got obliterated 8-1. That is not indicative of the quality of these two teams and speaks more to Edmonton’s goaltending than anything. The Oilers will also get back one of their top defensemen in Mattias Ekholm and that should help at both ends of the ice.
Regardless of the first game, it is Hyman’s price on DraftKings that needs highlighting. He was moved back to Connor McDavid’s wing during the second period of that first game and last year, in that role, Hyman spent months priced at $6,900 or higher, with a handful of games above $8,000. Hyman’s even-strength points rate over the previous two seasons with McDavid as his center was 2.64 per 60 minutes, and 1.55 otherwise. That is an increase of a whopping 70%, so the move back to that line is massive for his fantasy upside.
Hyman’s projection on DK tonight borders on 13 points, a mark exceeding over a dozen wingers priced higher than him. On FD, he is second among all wingers priced $7,500 or less, trailing only teammate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. At Hyman’s price, he can be used as a one-off but his correlation with high-end linemates lends itself to stacking in tournaments.
Pavel Buchnevich (STL vs. SEA): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $5,400
Over his first two seasons with St. Louis, Buchnevich managed 56 goals and 143 points in 137 games, or 34 goals and 86 points every 82 games. He was held off the scoresheet in the team’s first game of the season, but the silver lining was he skated over 21 minutes while holding down top line and top power play roles. His career shot rate with the Blues is just 2.4 per game, but the point production is what makes him an intriguing tournament option.
What is particularly appealing about Buchnevich is that the team has him skating on the top line with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou. With that trio on the ice at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons, the Blues scored 3.5 goals per 60 minutes, a number that fell to 2.9/60 minutes when Buchnevich was on another line. That they’re all skating together on the power play is a bonus.
The home matchup to Seattle can be a difficult one as the Kraken allowed the second-fewest shots per minute last season. They have been outplayed in both games to start the year, though, and if Buchnevich keeps up his ice time levels with his linemates, his price will rise from here. His lack of shots make him a tournament option rather than a cash game one.
Taylor Raddysh (CHI at MTL): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $4,000
Chicago forward Taylor Hall suffered an injury during the team’s second game and that has moved Raddysh to the top line alongside rookie Connor Bedard. He hasn’t been moved to the top power play unit yet, but at Raddysh’s price, he doesn’t need that role to carry value on this slate.
Over their first two games, with Bedard on the ice at 5-on-5, Chicago generated over 44 shots per 60 minutes across 32-plus minutes played. Without him on the ice, that number cratered to 22.9/60. The rookie has been unbelievable for the team but there just isn’t much depth behind him. Raddysh’s move to the top line puts him in a much better offensive spot, and that’s very important when facing a weak defensive team like Montreal.
A road matchup on a huge slate is leaving Raddysh with low projected ownership, coming in under 3% on both sites. His points projection is over 2.0 per dollar, so there is solid value for the top-line winger, even away from home. He is a salary cap-friendly winger tonight, and can be paired with Bedard for tournament stacks.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Cale Makar (COL at SJ): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $7,600
Last year, when all of Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen were in the lineup, Makar produced 56 points in 49 games (1.14 points/game) and 10 points in 11 games when MacKinnon was injured (0.91 points/game). That is a difference of nearly 19 points over a full season and speaks to just how dangerous this Colorado offense is when all their stars are in the lineup.
The matchup against San Jose might not necessitate all the stars being in the lineup, but it helps. A year ago, the Sharks were 23rd by shots allowed and 30th by goals allowed per minute. They gave up four goals in their season opener as this rebuilding Sharks team showed exactly why they are currently at the early stages of their rebuild. With the team on the road and a handful of top options like Evan Bouchard and Erik Karlsson being at home, Makar’s projected ownership is low on both sites, ranging from 2-6%. That kind of ownership on this caliber of player in this matchup is something to heavily consider.
David Jiřiček (CBJ vs. NYR): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $3,500
An unfortunate (though apparently short-term) injury to Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski has forced Columbus to recall a defender, and it is Jiřiček joining the roster. For those unfamiliar, Jiřiček is arguably the top prospect defenseman that didn’t start the NHL season on an NHL roster, and he led all rookie AHL blueliners in points per game as a 19-year-old. One prospect model has Jiřiček, at this point of his career, with comparable production to stars like Adam Fox and Aaron Ekblad. Hopes are very high for him and he likely would have made the team out of training camp had they not acquired so many rearguards in the offseason.
Being a rookie call-up puts into question exactly how many minutes he’ll play, but any DFS player needing a stone-minimum option on the blue line should consider Jiřiček.
If he does not get into the lineup, Radko Gudas (ANA, DK – $2,600; FD – $3,700) is another punt option to consider.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
John Gibson (ANA at VGK): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $6,900
Anaheim was the worst defensive team in the league a year ago but allowing so many shots also provided Gibson with a lot of volume to pump up his fantasy value: The netminder had 31 games where he allowed at least four goals, but managed at least 18 DK points in six of them. In the 22 games where he allowed three goals or fewer, he averaged over 21 DK points per game. The sheer volume of shots faced means a lot of nights going over 2.0, if not 2.5, times his price even if he allows four-or-more goals.
Unsurprisingly, Gibson leads our goalie projections for saves tonight, being the only goalie north of 31 stops. The flipside is he’s also projected for the most goals against. If Vegas fails to fill the net, Anaheim’s netminder stands a good chance of a productive fantasy effort.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
VGK1: Ivan Barbashev-Jack Eichel-Jonathan Marchessault
The addition of Barbashev to this line last year boosted their 5-on-5 scoring rate from 3.3 per 60 minutes to 3.5, a number that grew to 4.7 in the playoffs. Each member of this line scored in Vegas’s first game of the season and the trio has generated 36 shot attempts in 24:28 of 5-on-5 ice time which is a colossal offensive number. Tonight, they get a home matchup against an Anaheim team that was at-or-near the bottom of every defensive metric last season. They are also rebuilding, and the beatings will continue until morale improves.
This Vegas trio is carrying the fifth-highest top-2 stack probability per the Stokastic Top Stacks tool but with lower ownership. That makes them a good leverage opportunity and should draw the attention of tournament DFS players tonight.
MTL2: Alex Newhook-Kirby Dach-Juraj Slafkovsky
There isn’t a workable sample with this line as Newhook is an offseason acquisition, but they did play well in the team’s first game of the year, generating six shots and two goals in 11 minutes of 5-on-5 time. What is important for this game, with Chicago in town, is they’ll avoid the Bedard matchup and that means a lot of second- and third-line faceoffs against the Blackhawks. As mentioned in the section on Raddysh, this Chicago roster is greatly lacking depth and that makes it a good spot for Montreal’s secondary trio.
Our Top Stacks tool has this Montreal line with sub-1% ownership on DraftKings and under 3% on FanDuel. They are a much better leverage opportunity on the former because of that ownership difference, but are fine as a filler stack in tournament formats.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and AllThreeZones
