This Friday night’s NHL DFS offering features just two games, and one of those teams (Calgary) is playing its second game in as many nights. It can make for a tricky slate to navigate, so let’s take some time to break down specific players and lines DFS players may want to target.
As always, Stokastic subscribers are encouraged to check the Discord when warmups start for updated lineup and injury information.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Boone Jenner (CBJ vs. CGY): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $6,900
The top center in Columbus has three goals and four points in three games to start the year, one of the few Blue Jackets skaters with a good offensive start to their season. His ice time is down from last year, but he’s still averaged over 19 minutes a night and cracked 21 minutes in the season opener. Even as the team acquires depth, it is still leaning heavily on Jenner.
Being at home against Calgary works into the favor of the home team tonight. The Flames are playing their second game in as many nights and their fourth road game in seven days. Jenner will be tasked with shutting down Calgary’s top line, and with Elias Lindholm and Jonathan Huberdeau on the ice this season, the Flames are giving up nearly 3.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which bodes well for the Blue Jackets top line.
Among all centers priced under $6,000 on DraftKings tonight, Jenner is second in Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections, and that gives him solid value. His (relatively) expensive FanDuel price means he’s less of a value over there, but it is also keeping his ownership much lower on that site. He and his linemates require some consideration in tournaments.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NYI VS. NJ): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,300
At this stage of his career, Pageau is a third-line center, but he’s not necessarily being treated as such. Through the first two games for the New York Islanders, he is skating over 16 minutes a game. It is the fifth-highest mark among New York forwards. That includes some secondary power play time, which is always nice to get from such a cheap DFS option.
The duo of Pageau and Anders Lee has been dominant when playing together over the last two seasons. In nearly 90 minutes of five-on-five time, the Islanders have controlled nearly 58% of shots and 66% of expected goals with them on the ice. They have yet to score in that stretch, but they’re running over their opponents in a small sample. It bodes well for tonight squaring off against a New Jersey roster that has average to poor defensive metrics in the early portion of this season.
There are only seven centers priced under $4,000 on DraftKings, but Pageau’s projection leads that group by a wide margin (22%). His palatable price on FanDuel means he can be used over there as well, but regardless of site, Pageau is a strong option for anyone needing to save salary at the position.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Jesper Bratt (NJ at NYI): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $6,200
It has been a shaky start for New Jersey, but it is very notable that Bratt, who has never had a full season with at least 17:30 per game in ice time, is averaging 19:43 per contest through three games. He has had brief spurts like this before, so whether it lasts remains to be seen, but he’s seen his ice time rise each game so far. He has responded with three goals, 5 points and nine shots in three contests.
The issue for tonight is going into New York to face the Islanders. A combination of good defense and elite goaltending has led to the third-fewest goals against per minute since the start of last season. New Jersey has been one of the few teams to break through, though, scoring nine goals in three games against New York last year. Bratt has been moved to Nico Hischier’s line, and that line is creating 3.4 expected goals and 3.5 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five over the last two seasons. High levels of ice time and an excellent line give Bratt hope of breaking through here.
Let’s be honest with each other and realize that this is a bad matchup, but there are only four teams on the slate tonight, and that matchup is keeping Bratt’s ownership in check on DraftKings — he’s outside the top 5 wingers on that site. He will be much higher on FanDuel, so DFS players over there will have to balance that ownership with Bratt’s upside.
Kyle Palmieri (NYI vs. NJ): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,000
Facing off against Bratt will be Kyle Palmieri and his linemates. It has been a good start to the year for Palmieri, with points in both Islanders games and managing seven shots in his two contests. He is not getting a lot of ice time at 16:47 per contest, but he doesn’t need a lot for his price. What is also important is that he’s skating more per game on the power play (2:24) than at any point of his Islanders tenure. Being on the top power play unit will help Palmieri’s fantasy output.
New Jersey is a strong team, but Palmieri’s line is quietly one of the best second lines in the league. Going back to last year, his trio has generated 42.8 shots and 3.6 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those are huge offensive numbers and speak to the dominance that they’ve exerted over their opponents. At the least, they shouldn’t be over-matched by a high-octane New Jersey forward group.
Palmieri ranks second by Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections on DraftKings tonight for wingers priced under $5,000, so anyone needing a winger in his price range should look in this direction. On FanDuel his price is much higher and makes him less attractive, though two-game slates don’t leave a lot of options.
Adam Ruzicka (CGY at CBJ): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $4,800
With 4 points in four games, Ruzicka has shown the offensive promise this season that he showed in 2022-23; he had 20 points in 25 outings with the Flames last season before going 19 straight games without a point. He had 22 goals over his last 44 games in the minor leagues, so the offense isn’t out of nowhere. He has also seen his ice time per game rise each matchup this season, starting at 10:52 in Game 1 and winding up with 15:21 in Game 4. He has been rewarded with a move to the team’s top power play unit as well.
Going to Columbus does not present a difficult matchup. The Blue Jackets were in the bottom 5 of every per-minute defensive metric last year, both at even strength and on the penalty kill. The sole exception was goals against while short-handed, where they were 26th in the league. This season, the team is again near the bottom of the league by all even-strength defensive metrics. For a Flames team playing its second game in as many nights, this is as good as a matchup can get.
Ruzicka is second for DraftKings point projections tonight when limiting to wingers priced $3,000 or less. He is fine as a salary-saving one-off or can be used in some sort of Calgary stack.
This player is listed as a center on FanDuel, so for a cheap winger, DFS players should look to Blake Coleman (CGY, $3,600), who leads the way for bargain-priced flanks by Stokastic’s NHL DFS projections.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Noah Hanifin (CGY at CBJ): DraftKings – $5,000 | FanDuel – $6,800
One benefit of rostering Hanifin in DFS is his ability to bring across-the-board production. Last year, he averaged 2.2 shots and 1.6 blocks per game while totaling 38 points. This year, he has four assists in four games, averaging two shots and 2.3 blocks per outing. He has at least two shots on goal in three of his four outings, points in three of four and has hit the block bonus on DraftKings twice. That kind of category coverage is what makes him an attractive blueliner in the DFS realm.
Hanifin is third among defensemen for projected points tonight on DraftKings, so he is fine to use in any format. He is considerably more expensive on FanDuel, though, so for a cheaper option, using teammate Rasmus Andersson ($6,300) is a way to save money and get a piece of the top power play unit.
Luke Hughes (NJ at NYI): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,000
The younger Hughes brother has been held pointless in his three games thus far, but he has also seen his ice time rise each game from 17:35 to 20:49. The last two games have seen him finish with the second-most average ice time among Devils defensemen. Notably, the team shuffled its power play units and finally stacked one power play quintet with their top offensive stars. Hughes is slated to run that unit and not Dougie Hamilton, so Hughes is being put in a great position to succeed offensively.
That power play role likely means high ownership for Hughes, who tops NHL DFS ownership projections on DraftKings for any blueliners priced $3,500 or less and on FanDuel for those priced $4,000 or less. Tournament DFS players may gravitate towards him, but he is very cheap for the role he’s expected to play.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ vs. CGY): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $8,000
It has been a good start for Merzlikins, who has saved 57 of the 60 shots he’s faced this year, even if an illness has kept him from starting more games. His Blue Jackets host a Flames team that is sixth in the league in shots per minute at five-on-five and was second in the entire league in this regard last year. It is giving the netminder the highest-projected save total tonight (32.1), and he’s ahead of the next-closest goalie by over 2.5 saves. He is also projected for the most goals against, but such is the nature of being expected to face a high shot volume. It can sink a fantasy night, but it can also lead to very high DFS scores, and that variance is what tournament players should embrace. His cheap price also helps matters for anyone needing to save salary in goal.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NYI1: Simon Holmstrom – Mathew Barzal – Bo Horvat
The dam is going to eventually burst for this trio. Going back to last year, Barzal and Horvat have been on the ice for a whopping 36.1 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five, a very high offensive number. The issue is they’ve shot 5.7% in their 116 minutes together, and that’s keeping their goals low. It is worth noting that Barzal has gone four straight years where his linemates have shot at least 8% so just getting to that mark, which still isn’t high, would lead to a 40% rise in goals scored. Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this trio coming in with less ownership on DraftKings than the team’s second line, so DFS players will want to consider NYI1 in tournaments tonight.
CGY2: Adam Ruzicka – Nazem Kadri – Dillon Dube
As mentioned in the section on Ruzicka, he’s on the top power play unit and that gives this even strength line two players – along with Kadri – on the premier power play. Crucially in this matchup, this trio will avoid the Jenner line at even strength. This season, with Columbus’s top line off the ice, the team is allowing 40% more shot attempts than with the Jenner line skating. That is a wide chasm that shows how poor this team is defensively (for the most part). Stokastic’s Calgary line is coming in with a bit of negative leverage on DraftKings, per Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool, but it’s positive on FanDuel, and the top-2 stack probability (15.1%) compared to expected ownership (18.6%) on DraftKings isn’t far off. DFS players can use someone like Jonathan Huberdeau instead of Dube in an effort to find more uniqueness, but CGY2 requires Stokastic’s attention.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
