It’s time for Stokastic’s weekly dive into NFL DFS projections. What are the top NFL DFS wide receiver picks and fades for Week 7 on DraftKings and FanDuel based on the data? Let’s break down the NFL DFS wide receiver value and then check back later in the week to see if we need to adjust our lineups because of any notable player news.
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Top NFL DFS Wide Receivers & Fades for Week 7
NFL player projections for the Week 7 main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel are out, so let’s see how the Stokastic data is looking at this point in the week.
Before lineups lock, we’ll add an update to this article on Sunday morning overviewing how the DFS projections have shifted at the wide receiver position.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 7 NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Sunday Update: On DraftKings, the top five boom probabilities at WR belong to Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Puka Nacua, Tyler Lockett and Keenan Allen on DraftKings. On FanDuel, it’s Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Puka Nacua, Keenan Allen and Zay Flowers as the top five. Go through all the data to find the best values at all price ranges.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
As long as he’s healthy, Keenan Allen is going to be hard to ignore for NFL DFS purposes. He’s been amazing so far in 2023 and is completely dominating target share from quarterback Justin Herbert on a weekly basis, and Allen will continue to be an offensive focal point even with Austin Ekeler returning to the fold.
For Week 7’s road matchup against a Chiefs team that’s won five straight, Allen tops the whole player pool in DraftKings boom probability at $8,600 on DraftKings, where he’s $900 cheaper than Cooper Kupp and $300 less than Stefon Diggs, though he drops further down the boom rankings on FanDuel where he’s priced at $9,200, with Kupp and Diggs at $9,700 and $9,000 respectively on that site.
At time of writing, Allen’s ownership projection is north of 20% on DraftKings, and you have to think both sides of this LAC/KC game will be popular from a DFS perspective. The Chargers are implied for 22 points in a game that has a total of 48.5, the highest on the Week 7 main NFL DFS slate.
Glancing at the Keenan Allen odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his receiving yards prop is at 77.5 yards and his anytime touchdown prop is available at +155 for Sunday. Will Allen be able to reach his ceiling in Week 7?
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were dreadful across the board offensively in Week 6, losing 20-6 at home to the Lions. Baker Mayfield was ineffective throughout and was unable to get any kind of momentum going with Mike Evans, who finished with just four receptions (on 10 targets) for 49 yards in the loss.
Looking at Stokastic’s data for Week 7’s meeting with the Falcons, we see Evans has a strong chance of bouncing back, as he’s in the top three in boom probability among wide receivers on DraftKings ($7,100), while that number drops slightly on FanDuel where he’s $7,600. Currently, DFS ownership projections show him at a shade over 12% on DraftKings and 14% on FanDuel.
Evans hasn’t scored a touchdown and has failed to eclipse 50 yards since Week 3, but he’s another week removed from his hamstring injury, and we know what kind of upside he brings to the table in NFL DFS. The prices are also more than fair on both sites.
For Week 7, the Tampa Bay receiver has a yardage prop in the 59.5 to 60.5 range depending on the online sports betting site, and he’s at +165 in the NFL odds to reach the end zone at any point in the game, according to OddsShopper.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 7 NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions
Now that Amon-Ra St. Brown is back to assert himself as the top option in the receiving group, and with Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond also in the mix for targets, Josh Reynolds has lost a bit of his DFS appeal, and that’s supported by NFL DFS projections for this week’s game against the Ravens. For now, he is projected for only 7.3 fantasy points on DraftKings and 6.0 fantasy points on FanDuel.
Reynolds has enjoyed a fine start to his 2023 campaign, with 19 receptions on 27 targets for 341 yards and three touchdowns, but there appear to be better WR values to look towards on the upcoming main slate.
When we analyze Stokastic’s Week 7 boom/bust probability tool, which shows how likely players are to meet their ceilings and floors relative to their median projections, the Detroit wideout has one of the highest bust probabilities at the position.
Even at a low $4,300 price point on DraftKings, Reynolds has a boom probability of 0.6% and bust probability of 57.6% for Sunday afternoon versus Baltimore. On FanDuel, where he’s $6,100, Reynolds has a 0.1% boom probability and 65.5% bust probability.
We recommend going through the full data for the WR position and the rest of the DraftKings and FanDuel pools. Don’t forget to monitor the player news and updated NFL DFS projections as we get closer to kickoff as well, to see if better NFL DFS wide receiver picks and values open up before lock.
Also remember that accurate player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups each week.
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