It is a colossal 13-game NHL DFS slate that features all the elite forward options we’ve been seeing all week like Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid. This article will focus on the lower-priced forwards to see where we can mine for point-per-dollar value, low ownership, or both.
As always, but particularly for a night featuring 26 teams, Stokastic members are strongly encouraged to check the Discord before lock for updated lineup and injury information.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Nick Suzuki (MTL vs. WSH): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $5,300
In Montreal’s first game without center Kirby Dach, Suzuki skated 22:02 overall even if a lot of that – well over 10 minutes – came on special teams. It speaks to the role Suzuki will now have on the roster as the injuries are starting to mount up once again. He has just one point in his three games so far but skating well over 20 minutes a night will lead to much more production as the season wears on.
The attraction to using Suzuki in DFS tonight is the matchup against Washington. Few teams have had a worse start to the season as the Capitals have allowed the third-most shots and fifth-most goals per minute at 5-on-5, and given up four power play goals against in their three contests. They are an aging team that failed to reach the playoffs last season so it’s fair to wonder if this isn’t just more decline from the second-oldest team in the league.
Suzuki’s problem is a lack of shooting, as has been the case for a while. That is keeping his Stokastic point projections muted – outside the top-10 centers priced under $6,000 on DraftKings – but that low-ish projection is keeping his ownership to just 3.1% on DK and 3.6% on FD. A great matchup with Washington puts Suzuki and his linemates in play tonight for tournaments.
Kevin Hayes (STL vs. PIT): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,000
A year after posting 54 points in Philadelphia, Hayes has had a slow start to his 2023-24 campaign with just one point (an assist) and one shot in three games. Importantly, though, because of his role on the third line, he’s not being used against tough competition, and his line is creating 2.8 expected goals per 60 minutes while controlling 60% of all shot attempts.
Pittsburgh is in town tonight and despite some pieces added in the offseason, the Penguins are having the same problem they were a year ago: The forward depth is dragging them down. When Pittsburgh has their top forwards off the ice, they are giving up 65.4 shot attempts per 60 minutes, controlling just 43% of all attempts. Hayes and his linemates will get a lot of those depth matchups, and it bodes well for the St. Louis side’s ability to generate offence.
Among all centers on DK tonight with a price tag under $4,000, Hayes is tied for third in our projections and represents a tremendous point-per-dollar value. He is second among all centers at $4,000 or less on FD, so he’s a good value for a salary-saving center.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Filip Forsberg (NSH vs. SJ): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $7,700
One of the surprises of the season thus far must be Nashville. They are just 2-3-0 but have given up the eighth-fewest shots against per minute at 5-on-5 while controlling nearly 60% of the expected goals. One big problem has been giving up seven power play goals against in five games, but that’s not a problem for Forsberg in the DFS game. What we care about most is his offence, and he has five points and 24 shots in those five contests.
With the top line duo of Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly on the ice at 5-on-5, the team is creating 35.8 shots and 4.7 expected goals per 60 minutes. The goals haven’t been abundant thanks to 7.7% shooting from the team in that time, but that should rise, and more goals should follow. The matchup against San Jose – a team giving up more shot attempts against per minute at 5-on-5 than the Boston Bruins are on the penalty kill – is a great one for our subject.
Forsberg leads all DK wingers with a cost under $7,000 tonight and leads FD wingers under $8,000 by our point projections. The great matchup against San Jose could lead to a lot of ownership, even on a 13-game slate, but he is projecting very well for a very good reason.
Evan Rodrigues (FLA vs. VAN): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,700
Rodrigues has been off to an excellent offensive start to the season with five points in four games, managing 17 shots total. Four of those points came in a single contest, but he’s also managed at least four shots on goal in every matchup. Even when he’s not on the scoresheet, he’s finding ways to be involved offensively, and that’s good news for DFS. That he’s skated at least 19 minutes in three of those four outings helps create that good shot-volume floor.
This mid-priced winger has meshed well with center Aleksander Barkov as the team generates nearly 40 shots and 4.3 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with them taking the ice. They have been stellar offensively regardless of the winger on the other side, and that Rodrigues is earning consistent top PP minutes bodes very well; they face a Vancouver team that is currently giving up the third-most shot attempts per minute on the penalty kill.
On DraftKings, Rodrigues is first by expected DK points tonight for all flanks priced lower than $5,000. He is ninth on FanDuel for the same players priced under $6,000 but is still a good value. He can be used by himself or as part of a Florida stack for tournaments.
Brett Howden (VGK at CHI): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $4,200
Vegas’s last game saw Howden get moved back to the team’s second line with Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone. In limited action since last season – Stone was injured a lot – this line created 3.2 expected goals and 3.9 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. They may give up chances defensively, but they have been able to create offensively and that’s important for us.
The matchup against Chicago is a great one for Howden and his linemates. The Blackhawks have been as bad defensively as the aforementioned San Jose Sharks, and that’s a matchup Vegas can feast on, even in a road matchup. Howden has three points in three games and while he won’t get a lot of ice time, he doesn’t really need it to pay off his DFS cost on either site tonight.
Low minutes are keeping Howden’s projections muted, but he is the stone-minimum (pun very much intended) on DK and that makes him palatable, in this matchup, as a cap-friendly winger. He can be used as such, or part of a Vegas stack for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Erik Karlsson (PIT at STL): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $6,800
The newest aging superstar on the Pittsburgh roster has posted four points in four games this season, though three of them came in one outing. Karlsson has managed multiple shots on goal in every appearance thus far, averaging three per contest, and has skated at least 25 minutes in three of his four games. Pittsburgh is generating 3.3 expected goals and 4.5 actual goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice and are visiting a St. Louis team ranked 27th by shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes this season.
FanDuel has Karlsson priced as the number-5 defender tonight, but Stokastic projections have him second by expected points output. It gives him a very solid value on that site for DFS players wanting to avoid high ownership from Roman Josi. Karlsson’s price on DK makes him much less of a value but it also means lower expected ownership, so tournament players will have more of a decision to make on that site.
Calen Addison (MIN vs. CBJ): DraftKings – $3,900 | FanDuel – $3,700
At the outset of the season, one of the keys to Minnesota finding success this year would be the growth of Addison, the 23-year-old blueliner whose function was largely just to run the power play. His role has evolved this year, partly thanks to an injury to teammate Jared Spurgeon, as he’s added over 2 ½ minutes of ice time per game to his 2022-23 rate, landing at 18:42 per night. That he has skated 19:31 and 22:27 in his last two games speaks to that evolution, and the team is creating more expected goals with him on the ice than any other of their rearguards.
Tonight’s matchup is against a Columbus team playing their second game in as many nights and Addison’s low price on FD makes him easily the best, cheap value for defensemen on that site. The matchup is also giving this blueliner the highest point projection on DK for any player at his position priced under $4,000 so he’s a good value no matter where DFSers are playing.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Alexandar Georgiev (COL vs. CAR): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $8,500
Following a strong first year with Colorado in 2022-23, Georgiev is off to a great start with four wins in four starts, allowing just four goals against. He has averaged over 27 saves per game, and that’s not a lot, but the Avalanche have not faced a team that is top-10 by shot attempts generated so far this season. That changes tonight with Carolina in town, a squad generating the most shot attempts per minute of any team in the NHL. They have been scoring over four goals per game but have also not faced stiff competition. It is going to be that type of measuring-stick game for both teams.
Due to the shot volume he’s expected to face, Georgiev is projected for the third-most saves of any goalie on the slate. Of the five goalies expected to make at least 29 saves, Georgiev’s goals against are set to be nearly a half-goal lower than the next-closest goalie. That is a big gap, and these are all reasons to consider him as a netminder in any format.
For a low-cost option on FanDuel, Juuse Saros (NSH, $7,000) is far too cheap for his matchup. He may not start, but even backup Kevin Lankinen is acceptable at that price against the Sharks.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
COL1: Jonathan Drouin – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Carolina visiting Colorado presents a tough matchup for both sides but the difference for Colorado is their expected ownership tonight: Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool has them under 4% on both DK and FD. It is just five games, but it’s worth noting that Carolina is outside the top-10 by expected goals against at 5-on-5 this season, and poor goaltending has them 22nd by goals against per minute. This is the fourth road game in seven days for the Hurricanes, so it may be a good time on the schedule for the Avalanche to catch them. This home trio is top-3 by leverage on both sites tonight so they require consideration, at the least.
WSH1: Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Matthew Phillips
Washington has looked poor to start the year, but so has Montreal, so consider this a noodle fight. When Ovechkin has had Dylan Strome as his center over the last two years, the team has generated 3.3 expected goals per 60 minutes; that number is under 2.8/60 without him. At this point, Strome may be the team’s best offensive center, and with Ovechkin playing both halves of the power play, this trio is perfectly correlated on the second unit. They are coming in with negative leverage, but ownership on DK is still just 5.2%, so they are an acceptable filler-type stack against a team with the most time short-handed this season.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
