There are just five games on the NHL slate for this Friday night, and five teams are playing their third game in four nights. It brings a lot of intrigue to a small slate that features some lopsided matchups, as well as a faceoff between Jack Hughes and Tage Thompson. Let’s look at some of the advantageous spots and try to mine for NHL DFS value picks and stacks.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Elias Pettersson (VAN vs. STL): DraftKings – $8,100 | FanDuel – $9,000
Following a career year with 102 points in 80 games, Pettersson is off to a great start with two goals and 10 points in six games. He already has four multi-point performances and has skated at least 18 minutes in each outing, averaging nearly 20 minutes a night. His line with Andrei Kuzmenko has been lethally efficient once again, scoring seven goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which is an absurd number. The team is shooting 20.2% with them on the ice, and that screams regression, but even half that conversion rate would leave it with 3.5 goals per 60, and that is still a very good number. It is just creating a lot of offence, whether the pucks are going in or not.
The Canucks are hosting the Blues tonight, and the road team is playing its second game in as many nights. League-wide, St. Louis is also allowing the third-most shots against per minute at five-on-five, as it has been bailed out phenomenal goaltending. That can’t persist every night, and it leaves Pettersson and his linemates in a very good spot.
A lack of shot volume is what is going to separate Pettersson from Hughes among center projections, and tonight is no exception where Hughes is much higher. Pettersson is still second on the list behind him in Stokastic center projections tonight and nearly 10% higher than the next-closest pivot after him. Pettersson and his linemates are tournament targets for this slate.
Casey Mittelstadt (BUF at NJ): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,500
Buffalo has swapped its lines around over the last week and it has left Mittelstadt with the team’s two best wingers – Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner – at even strength. That trio was tremendous last year, creating 3.7 expected goals and 6.0 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That was a sample of around 113 minutes, but they are creating 3.2 expected goals per 60 in another small sample this season. Their ability to create has carried over to this season is notable here.
Mittelstadt has turned into one of the top young playmakers in the NHL. Last year, per tracking data at AllThreeZones, he was one of the top 20 forwards in assists on teammate scoring chances per minute, in line with names like Mikko Rantanen and Aleksander Barkov. He also leads the team in assists per minute at even strength over the last two years, so he’s not just showing well in underlying stats, he’s producing points. With a pair of talented wingers next to him, it bodes well for even more production.
Like Pettersson earlier, a lack of shot volume will keep Mittelstadt’s NHL DFS projections more modest than other centers, but he’s still fourth on DraftKings at his position for those priced under $4,000. At such a cheap price, he can be a salary-saving one-off option but is also perfectly fine in a line stack.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Tyler Toffoli (NJ vs. BUF): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $7,000
It has been a tremendous start to Toffoli’s year in New Jersey as he’s posted six goals and 9 points in six games, averaging four shots per game. He is shooting 25%, and that’s far too high, but half that mark would still leave him on a 40-goal, point-per-game pace. He is just generating so much offence that the impact of any regression will be softer than if he weren’t generating high shot volumes. Notably, he has been next to Jack Hughes for most of the season, and those two are skating together both at even strength and the power play. With them on the ice at five-on-five, the team is generating a whopping 86.4 shot attempt0 per 60 minutes. There are power plays that don’t generate that much.
Buffalo’s defensive numbers have been better with its new line combinations, but the games have also been against the New York Islanders (when the Islanders were playing their second game of a back-to-back), Montreal and Ottawa. On the whole, the Sabres are in the bottom 10 of the league by expected goals against per minute at five-on-five and this will be the real test of their now formation.
Toffoli is projecting lower than other top wingers tonight but a big reason for that is ice time; he is projected for over two minutes less than some others in his price range; Toffoli’s projected for the eighth-most shots tonight. The sheer volume of offense the Devils, and Toffoli, generate makes him a target in all formats.
Martin Necas (CAR vs. SJ): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $5,700
Both teams in this game are playing their second game in as many nights, though Carolina at home gives it an edge. Not that it needs it, as San Jose is looking every bit the basement team prognosticators expected: Second-most shots against per minute at five-on-five; third-most goals against per minute at five-on-five; fifth-most shots against per minute on the penalty kill; seven power play goals against in seven games. These two teams faced off last week in San Jose and Carolina put up six goals. It is just a tremendous matchup in all facets for Necas and the Hurricanes.
What is notable about our subject is not only the 9 points in eight games, but that he has skated at least 20 minutes in four of his last five showings as the team leans on him more. He might not get that ice time against San Jose, but it’s more because there’s no need for top players to have high usage levels against such a bad team. The silver lining is the Sharks are so bad that 20 minutes aren’t necessary for a great fantasy night.
Among all wingers tonight, Necas has the third-highest NHL DFS projections on DraftKings and fourth highest on FanDuel. His moderate price means he’s a tremendous point-per-dollar value on both sites, but the matchup also means very heavy ownership. He is a target in cash games, but that ownership makes it more of a debate in tournaments.
Arthur Kaliyev (LA at ARI): DraftKings – $3,300 | FanDuel – $4,400
In four games since returning from suspension, Kaliyev has one goal and 3 points. His true third-line role means he’ll skate around 13 minutes a night, but at his price, he doesn’t need 19-20 minutes. What’s more is that his line with Phillip Danault has been tremendous offensively by generating nearly 43 shots per 60 minutes in their limited time together. Kaliyev is also getting sparse secondary power play time, and Arizona’s penalty kill is giving up the most shots per minute of any team in the league (and the fifth-most goals).
The Danault line will get depth matchups from Arizona and that benefits the road team immensely. When the Coyotes have their top line off the ice, shot attempts and expected goals against at five-on-five rise 32% and 63%, respectively. Elite goaltending — a .965 save percentage behind them — is the only reason Arizona’s second, third and fourth lines aren’t getting buried. That number is unsustainable, and all this makes it a great matchup for King Arthur.
Matching against Arizona, along with a great line, is pushing Kaliyev to the top of DraftKings winger projections for those carrying a cost under $4,000. He also leads on FanDuel for those priced under $4,500 so he’s a very good point-per-dollar salary-saving winger no matter the site.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Quinn Hughes (VAN vs. STL): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $6,400
One of the last pieces to the fantasy value puzzle for Hughes was adding more shots; he had never reached 2.0 shots per game in any season of his career. That has changed in the early portions of this season as he’s in the 96th percentile for even strength shot attempts per minute by a defenseman and 98th percentile at all strengths. He is averaging 3.5 shots per game and has managed at least three shots in five of his six contests thus far. Add that to his point-per-game pace and he’s been off to a wonderful start.
Hughes has the fifth-highest and third-highest NHL DFS projections among all blueliners tonight on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. His modest DraftKings price gives him very good value there, and it’s still not bad on FanDuel considering his point production potential. Hughes can be used in any format tonight, and that includes as part of a Vancouver tournament stack, power play or otherwise.
Dmitry Orlov (CAR vs. SJ): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $4,200
With teammate Brett Pesce injured, Orlov has seen his role on the team increase. He averaged under 17 minutes a game through the team’s first six games but has been over 22 minutes in each of his last two appearances. Orlov has been moved to a pairing with Brady Skjei, and the small-sample returns have been very good: 21 shots generated in nearly 28 minutes with the duo on the ice at five-on-five. Orlov has also been skating on the team’s second power play unit, and as mentioned in the section on Necas, tonight’s opponent is a very weak defensive team in all areas.
There are a number of Carolina blueliners that are in play tonight given their roles and the matchup, but Orlov is among the cheapest from that team. He leads defense projections on DraftKings for anyone priced under $4,000 and is second on FanDuel for those priced under $4,500. He is an acceptable target in any format on either site.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Karel Vejmelka (ARI vs. LA): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $7,400
In the Stokastic GoalieStats section, there is one netminder projected for at least 30 saves tonight and it’s Vejmelka. He is also expected to give up the fourth-most goals, but that difference in ranking for saves/goals against provides a bit of value. On DraftKings, he’s tied for the second-highest point-per-dollar value in the NHL DFS projections and fourth on FanDuel. He carries such a reasonable price and looks to be in line to face a lot of value, and that is reason enough for tournament DFS players to consider the Coyotes netminder tonight.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NJ1: Tyler Toffoli – Jack Hughes – Timo Meier
This New Jersey line leads Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool by top-2 stack probability by a wide margin: 38.2% with no other line coming in over 25% on DraftKings. It is closer on FanDuel, but it is still the clear frontrunner on that site, too. Its expensive price may scare DFS players away, but there are a lot of low-priced lines that are viable tonight because there are so many weak defensive teams on the slate. Leaving Meier off for a power play option like Jesper Bratt is acceptable, but the Devils top line should be near the top of tournament stack lists tonight.
STL1: Brandon Saad – Robert Thomas – Jordan Kyrou
The St. Louis Blues are not a good team but there is good news for this particular line: It will get matched against the J.T. Miller line from Vancouver. That Canucks line has given up 3.6 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season and that is a poor defensive number. In a larger sample after the All-Star break a year ago, it allowed over three goals against per 60 minutes with below-average defensive metrics. There are not many times St. Louis might be able to take advantage of a matchup, but this is one of them.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this Blues line at 8% ownership on DraftKings and under 6% on FanDuel. It is a mid-priced line, so it can be used with most other top trios tonight, and that reasonable ownership makes it a target on a short slate.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
