There are nine games in the NHL tonight and no shortage of superstars like Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, and Quinn Hughes. It could leave good ownership on some of the mid-tier options, so let’s focus on that while also digging for a bit of cheap value as we get into our NHL DFS picks today.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Vincent Trocheck (NYR at WSH): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,400
It has been over five weeks since the injury to teammate Filip Chytil and since that point, Trocheck has managed 5 goals and 13 assists in 14 games, averaging 2.8 shots per contest. He has fit in seamlessly back on the second line and that stretch of games has seen him average over 21 minutes a night with his improved usage. An important point is it’s not all driven by the power play, as just four of those 18 points have come with the man advantage, so he’s been productive at all offensive strengths.
Were it not for great goaltending, Washington would be in dire straits right now as they are bottom-10 in the league at 5-on-5 over the last month by shots against and expected goals against per minute. It is a strong matchup for Trocheck at that strength, and one that his line should be able to control. With Adam Fox back running the top PP unit, they are generating 26% more shot attempts and 55% more goals than they were when he was injured, and that helps Trocheck as well.
Among all pivots priced under $7,000 on either site, Trocheck is third by fantasy point projections tonight on Stokastic. It gives him good value regardless of where he’s rostered so he can be used as a one-off center, though his correlation with superstar Artemi Panarin makes a tournament stack more appealing.
Ross Colton (COL vs. PHI): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,800
On balance, it has been a solid season for Colton as he’s managed seven goals in 26 games for Colorado and has achieved that while averaging just 13:37 per game in ice time. At 5-on-5 alone, he has the second-highest rate of shot attempts per minute, trailing only Nathan MacKinnon, while leading the team by individual expected goals per minute. Not only does he shoot, but they’re generally quality shots, and that’s helping float his goal scoring in low minutes.
For tonight, he is not likely to play low minutes. Injuries through the lineup have pushed him over 20 minutes a night in both his two most recent games, as he’s been moved to the team’s top PP unit. The health status of Valeri Nichushkin is uncertain for tonight, and if he returns it’s going to mute Colton’s ice time, so that is something to monitor throughout the day. If he is out, Colton is likely to skate a lot of minutes once again.
Colton is carrying the highest DK point projection for any center priced under $4,000, and it’s not even close as he clears the next-closest option by 34%. His cheap price and role with the Avalanche could drive extra ownership his way, but he is still in play as a low-cost, one-off center as long as Nichushkin remains out of the lineup.
If Nichushkin returns, consider Anthony Cirelli (TB, DK: $3,900 | FD: $4,300) as a second option.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Jeff Skinner (BUF vs. MTL): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,500
Skinner remains one of the most underrated players in the league – over the last three seasons, his points per minute at 5-on-5 is top-10 among all regular forwards, and ahead of names like Jack Hughes, Nikita Kucherov, and Connor McDavid. His problem is not playing the level of minutes those guys do, but that has changed recently with all of Buffalo’s injuries as he’s averaged 20:48 in ice time over his last five games. There hasn’t been a lot of production – one goal and one assist – but he does have 23 shots in that span, reaching the DraftKings shot bonus twice.
Even with their injuries, Buffalo is in a good matchup at home tonight to Montreal thanks to the Canadiens allowing the third-most shots and second-most expected goals against per minute at 5-on-5 across the previous four weeks. They are also giving up the fifth-most power plays per game on the season at 3.7.
Of all the wingers priced under $7,000 on DK tonight, Skinner carries the highest point projection by a whopping 19%, and that number is 20% on FD. He is clearly the top option in that price range, though other DFS players will likely also consider him as such, and that could drive high ownership to him and the Buffalo top line.
Vladimir Tarasenko (OTT at DET): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $5,300
Even through Ottawa’s uneven play, one bright spot has been the move of Tarasenko to Tim Stützle’s wing. In their 65 minutes together at 5-on-5, they have helped the Senators outshoot the opponent 49-33, more than double their expected goals, and outscore them 5-0. It has pushed Tarasenko to a four-game stretch that includes two goals and two assists while averaging 3.5 shots per game. He’s added nearly three minutes of ice time per game in that span as his line mate quality and usage has improved dramatically.
With the focus on Detroit’s offense with Patrick Kane, it’s easy to overlook their defense, which has not been great – they are in the middle of the league by expected goals and shots against per minute at 5-on-5 this season. The addition of Kane will not help in that regard, and it’s a matchup that Tarasenko and his line mates can exploit.
On the two sites for this slate, Tarasenko is carrying a point-per-$1,000 value over 2.1 on DK and 2.3 on FD, per the Stokastic projections. That is very good value so he does not require those top PP minutes to be a solid play tonight. He can be used as a one-off mid-priced flank across the industry.
Nils Höglander (VAN vs. CAR): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $3,900
Since being moved to the second line, Höglander has scored in both games he’s skated there, registering season-highs in ice time in each contest. Though he does not have a high shot rate on a per-minute basis, one thing this winger does well is get to the net-front area – his 1.22 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 lead the team, and is tied for 10th among regular forwards across the league. His ability to get to the net should make a nice complement to JT Miller’s playmaking skills.
On the surface, facing a great defensive team like Carolina is a tough matchup. The problem for Carolina, of course, is their goaltending. They are 29th in the league by even strength save percentage and dead last at all strengths. Our winger doesn’t get top PP minutes, but he’s not being priced as if he needs them, either, and the improved line mate quality at even strength is vitally important for him.
The tough matchup is keeping this winger’s projections muted on either site, but as long as Carolina’s goaltending remains subpar, and Höglander’s usage and role remains where he is, he can be used as a salary-saving winger.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Morgan Rielly (TOR vs. NSH): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $7,300
One issue for Rielly’s DFS has often been his peripherals – the previous three seasons saw him average 2.2 shots and 1.2 blocks per game. That has changed this year with 2.4 shots and 2.0 blocks per game. Just his last 10 contests alone have seen him average 2.7 shots and 2.4 blocks each outing. He has reached the DK block bonus nine times in 23 appearances this campaign, having reached that mark just 10 times in 65 appearances last season. There have also been seven points in those recent 10 games, so there has been point production to go with the improved peripheral levels.
Among defensemen priced under $6,000 on DK tonight, Rielly has the third-highest fantasy point projection and the highest outside of the St. Louis/Chicago game. It gives him solid value on that site so he can be used by himself in tournaments, or as part of a Toronto stack.
Rielly’s absurd price on FanDuel is leaving him with much worse value on that site, so it may be worth just paying an extra $500 and rostering Nashville defenseman Roman Josi.
Jake Sanderson (OTT at DET): DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $6,200
With Thomas Chabot injured again, the top power play duties for Ottawa revert back to Sanderson. He skated 2:09 of the team’s 2:51 of available power play time in their last game with that improved role. That is good news for tonight as Ottawa visits a Detroit team giving up the fourth-most power plays per game this season. Conversely, Ottawa is drawing the second-most power plays per game in the league thus far, and that should mean lots of power play time for Sanderson in this matchup. That improved role to go with peripherals of two shots and two blocks per game give the young defender a lot of upside in this matchup.
Sanderson’s cheap price may drive ownership his way on DK but that price also makes him a fine value in his price range. He, like Rielly, can be used by himself or as part of a team stack for tournaments.
Also like Rielly, Sanderson is way over-priced on FD so that will keep ownership off him but it’s awful value. For better value, consider Seth Jones (CHI, $4,900) on that site.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Ilya Sorokin (NYI vs. LA): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $7,900
The Islanders are a team that allow a lot of shots – second-most per minute this season, in fact – but great goaltending has kept their goals against closer to the middle of the league. That has led to Sorokin averaging 35 saves per game over his last 10 starts. It is a lot of volume, and that is a good thing for a DFS goalie.
Per the GoalieStats section in Stokastic’s projections, Sorokin is carrying the highest expected save total among all netminders tonight, clearing the next-closest option by over two saves (which is a lot in these types of projections). However, his expected goals against ranks 10th among this slate’s goalies, and that disparity makes him one of the top values on the board regardless of the site he’s being rostered.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
OTT2: Vladimir Tarasenko – Tim Stützle – Drake Batherson
As mentioned above in the section on Sanderson, the Detroit Red Wings are one of the most penalized teams in the league while Ottawa is amongst the leaders in drawing power plays. Two of the players on this line – Tarasenko excepted – are on the team’s top PP unit, which is a good start for their DFS value. Per the tracking website AllThreeZones, Tarasenko and Stützle lead Senators forwards in assists per minute on teammate scoring chances, meaning they’ve been among the team’s best playmakers. Batherson has come alive offensively with six goals in his last 10 games, so this has the makings of a very good offensive trio.
A reasonable price is driving some ownership this way, but Stokastic’s Top Stacks tool still has this line with positive leverage on the two sites, meaning a higher top-2 stack probability than ownership, so they can be used as a mid-priced stack on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
LA3: Carl Grundstrom – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Alex Laferriere
On a slate with high-priced stacks from Colorado, Toronto, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Vancouver in abundance, looking for a cheap filler is sometimes a necessity. This Los Angeles trio has quietly been excellent together at 5-on-5 this season, outshooting the opponents 42-28 in their 70-plus minutes together, creating 49% more expected goals than the opponent. They face a New York Islanders team that has seen their blue line depth decimated thanks to injuries to Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, and the other Sebastian Aho. For a team already giving up the fourth-most shots and sixth-most expected goals against per minute this season, it’s a lot to overcome, and will give this depth Kings line good matchups against weak defensemen.
This trio has a bit of negative leverage on the Top Stacks tool, but it’s not extreme, and especially not for a cheap filler line that can be used with the expensive stacks elsewhere. It may not be necessary to use all three players – leaving one of the wingers off is fine – but this has been an excellent depth line that should be able to create offense against a weakened Islanders blue line.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
