Saturday features the NBA In-Season Tournament Finale, with an 8:30 p.m. ET tip off on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Tyrese Haliburton are the trio to target. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, December 9
LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 57.28 | FanDuel: 58.33
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 65.5% | FanDuel: 55.9%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $15,000
In three weeks, LeBron James will be celebrating his 39th birthday, so why shouldn’t he give himself a little present tonight in the form of the first-ever NBA In-Season Tournament championship trophy — and $500,000? The Lakers embark on a three game Texas road swing on Tuesday in Dallas and they play on Wednesday in San Antonio. Expect James to sit for one of those games, likely the latter. That means there are no real impediments for him regarding minutes tonight, and we just saw King James log 40 minutes against the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday, leading the team to a 106-103 victory.
Anything less than 50 fantasy points tonight will be a disappointment, and 60 fantasy points is definitely in play. Indiana is playing at the fastest pace in the league with the most efficient offense and one of the worst defenses. Fantasy goodness should abound in this tilt on all sides.
Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 59.82 | FanDuel: 60.94
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 78.3% | FanDuel: 61.6%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $15,500
Anthony Davis is a tick more expensive than LeBron on FanDuel with the roles reversed on DraftKings. When healthy, Davis is one of the most productive fantasy producers in the league, as evidenced by his five-consecutive 50-plus fantasy point efforts, with three topping 60 fantasy points. The 30-year-old has 19 double-doubles in his 22 appearances, which is a phenomenal baseline. He is among the league leaders with 2.7 blocks per game, which is his highest rate of the last nine seasons. If the game is competitive, he should see upwards of 36 minutes tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton: Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 60.14 | FanDuel: 61.84
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 69.2% | FanDuel: 59.8%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,400 | FanDuel: $17,000
To say this has been a breakout season for Tyrese Haliburton is actually an understatement. He has led the Pacers to a 123.5 offensive efficiency rating, which is three points per 100 possessions better than Philadelphia (120.4) and nearly five points better than Milwaukee (118.8) and Dallas (118.8). Indiana is playing at the fastest pace in the league with 104.13 possessions per 48 minutes, and while the Pacers have the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league at 119.8, they still have a positive net rating of +3.8.
Haliburton leads the league with 12.1 assists per game, and his 26.9 points are on pace for a career-high, with 4.2 rebounds per game nearing his best year as well. In raw terms, he has upped his fantasy production by 20% over last year, which is just absurd.
Single-Game Strategy
Looking at DraftKings, it takes nine lineups before one of James, Davis or Haliburton is not in the multiplier slot, though the trio is still together in the flex spots. That lineup has a median fantasy projection that is four points fewer than the 247.62 optimal lineup based on the 11 a.m. ET projections. The first lineup that skips one of the trio checks in with Davis at Captain and leaves off LeBron and owns a projection of 240.52.
Turning the spotlight to FanDuel, it is not until the 14th lineup that excludes one of the trio, Haliburton in this case, which produces a lineup that is eight points lower than the optimal, which actually features the budding superstar in the MVP slot.
This means there is going to be a tremendous amount of overlap and duplication. Because this trio project for 20 points more than Myles Turner on DraftKings and 18 more on FanDuel, we can see that it is almost a fool’s errand to skip one of the Big Three on FanDuel. DraftKings is a little more interesting with the 1.5x multiplier also impacting the salary.
Discount Dandies
Jarred Vanderbilt is appealing because he is cheap and a starter, but he also will be hard-pressed to top 15 minutes of run since he is not part of the closing unit. Rui Hachimura is more expensive, but his offense and rebounding will keep him on the court for closer to 20 minutes, and there are scenarios where he gets fourth-quarter court time in a close game.
Austin Reaves has been the better option over D’Angelo Russell since he is preferred down the stretch of close games by coach Darvin Ham. Cam Reddish usually gets more minutes that Hachimura, but he is a low-usage player, willing to defer, but he is slightly more intriguing than fellow starter Taurean Prince.Â
Finally, Jaxon Hayes is the last player who is likely to get minutes, as he has been a direct replacement for Davis. But there is no guarantee that he sees the court tonight, since Vanderbilt and Hachimura could easily be the nominal center — as could James, for the handful of minutes that Davis is on the bench.
Andrew Nembhard is out tonight, but his minutes could be disbursed among any number of the malleable Pacers back-end rotation players. Jordan Nwora is just $1,000 on DraftKings, but he may not leave the bench. Turner carries foul risk, but in this winner-take-all matchup, it would make sense to just let him play through that risk.
Obi Toppin is a fun offensive player with his outstanding lob-dunks, but he is invisible on defense, which could cost him late-game action. Bruce Brown Jr. and Buddy Hield will be lineup stalwarts, but they can disappear for long stretches on offense. Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith can fill in wherever, but they too are inconsistent fantasy producers.
The final two players are Isaiah Jackson, who should get the minutes that Turner vacates with the Pacers needing frontcourt size. T.J. McConnell might have a chance at playing alongside Haliburton, which will be his path to getting more than seven or eight minutes tonight.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
D’Angelo Russell has been losing out in the final frame to other teammates, which gives him a couple different paths to fall under his 23.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop. This line is currently available at -110 and per the -109 “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this wager is essentially neutral at this line and threshold.
Looking across the various sportsbooks offering this bet, we can see a variety of lines ranging from -110 to -120, and while that does not seem like much, these little edges add up over time, which is why it is important to let OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when looking for wagers. The books themselves can be quite penalizing to those who are not paying attention.
What is not displayed, however, is that there are several “pick’em” sites offering the same 23.5 PRA wager at a 50/50 proposition. Of course, we need to add in a second leg to take advantage of that wrinkle, which sort of evens things back out to around a -110 line.
NBA Bet Pro has Russell projected for 27.2 minutes, 14.72 points, 2.98 rebounds and 5.91 assists, which works out to 23.61 PRA. Keep in mind that this is a median outcome and between poor shooting, foul trouble, in-game injury, defensive-lapses and losing his fourth quarter role, there are a myriad of ways that Russell could fail to surpass the 23.5 PRA threshold tonight.
Get ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium, when you signed up through this link for BetMGM. There is also a First Wager bonus promotion of up to $1,500 back in credits if the bet loses. Check out this link for full details.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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