It is a short two-game NHL DFS slate this Wednesday night, but there is no shortage of both young and old superstars like Brady Tkachuk and Sidney Crosby. Let’s break down these two matchups to find the best NHL DFS picks and stacks for building lineups.
As always, Stokastic members are encouraged to check the Discord for updated roster information, particularly when warmups start 30 minutes before lock times.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Tim Stutzle (OTT vs. WSH): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,200
Following his breakout 2022-23 effort that saw 39 goals, 90 points and 2.9 shots per game, Stutzle has started this season well with two goals, 3 points and 14 shots in three contests. Importantly, he has skated at least 20 minutes in all three outings, averaging well over 21 minutes each night. He trails only Tkachuk in shot attempts per minute among Ottawa forwards, and with his level of ice time, that gives him a high shot floor.
Ottawa is at home to a Washington roster that has had among the worst starts to the season of any team in the league. It is carrying just 37.4% of the shot attempt share at five-on-five, and the only reason it is middle of the pack by goals against per minute is great goaltending. That can’t be relied upon every night, and until it starts showing signs of improvement, that aging team should be regarded skeptically.
Stutzle leads all centers in NHL DFS projections tonight on both DraftKings and FanDuel, a testament to his talent, ice time and role. He will carry a lot of ownership, though, so that is the balance of rostering this high-end producer.
Josh Norris (OTT vs. WSH): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $3,000
Ottawa is welcoming back Norris to the lineup after he missed the first few games with a shoulder problem. He was out for 74 games last year thanks to that shoulder issue, so having it linger into training camp is worrisome, but he’s in the lineup, and we just have to assume he’s healthy enough to play.
It has been so long since Norris was a lineup regular that it’s easy to forget how good his goal-scoring ability is. In 130 games from 2020 to 2022, he led Ottawa with 1.41 goals per 60 minutes. That rate put him in the 92nd percentile of the league and in line with names like Matthew Tkachuk and Kyle Connor. He did that while shooting 19%, which is high, but there are players that can stay around that mark year after year like Mark Scheifele and Brayden Point. Whether Norris ultimately stays there remains to be seen, but 130 games is not a small sample.
The big reason NHL DFS players should look to Norris is his price. With the injury, his salary is very low to start the year; his first game of the 2022-23 regular season saw his DraftKings salary come in at $5,600. He is the best point-per-dollar value on both sites and should be heavily considered for cash games.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Jake Guentzel (PIT at DET): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $6,700
Guentzel was expected to have a late start to the season but returned in time for the team’s first game, and it’s been a boon for the franchise and the player: Six points and nine shots in three games while skating 18:25 a night. It is a bit concerning that he’s lost per-game ice time relative to his last four seasons – over 20 minutes in each of his four prior campaigns – but that’s the way the team is running their forwards so far; his 18:25 leads all Penguins forwards.
Pittsburgh is heading to Detroit to face a Red Wings team that has scored 13 goals in three games and has largely been fine defensively. Guentzel will be facing off against Detroit’s top line, and with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond on the ice over the last three seasons, Detroit’s top line allows 2.7 expected goals and 3.3 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are poor defensive numbers and bode well for Pittsburgh’s primary trio.
On both sites, Guentzel comes in fourth among wingers in Stokastic’s projected points tonight. His being much cheaper, relatively speaking, on FanDuel makes him a target on that site in any format, especially where he’s expected to have much lower ownership than many options from Ottawa.
Lucas Raymond (DET vs. PIT): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,200
On the other side of that Pittsburgh game is a Detroit team that has promoted Raymond to the top line after he started down the lineup to begin the campaign. His first full game on the top line saw him push past 17 minutes, and though that number fell under 14 minutes in his most recent outing, that was a lopsided win against Columbus. It was a contest with a lot of special teams, and there was no need to lean on most top players; he skated only 25 fewer seconds than Larkin at even strength.
One of the positive early signs for Raymond is his 18.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five. He failed to reach 11 attempts per 60 in either of his first two seasons, and if he can maintain anywhere close to that level of shot generation, he will unlock his next level of fantasy value.
On FanDuel tonight, Raymond leads NHL DFS projections for all wingers priced under $4,500, and only Ottawa’s Dominik Kubalik is anywhere close to him. He can be used as a one-off to save salary or as part of a top-line Detroit stack.
Connor McMichael (WSH at OTT): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $3,400
McMichael is 22 years old, so he’s far from a finished project, and he has just 77 career games to his name. He played a near-full season back in 2021-22 and has appeared in four separate regular seasons. One big problem that played against him was (and still is) Washington’s veteran depth; just this year alone, there are nine forwards over the age of 25 on the roster. That has been the case for years, and it’s made it difficult for young players to break through. McMichael has been on the team’s second line this season and is expected to be again tonight, which speaks to his growth.
The young Caps forward is known for his offense, even if he’s not a great playmaker. In his 90 minor league games, he tallied 30 goals and managed 3.1 shots per game. Veteran winger T.J. Oshie has been moved to his line too, so there are good offensive players beside him that should help create against Ottawa’s second and third lines.
On small slates like this, getting top-6 forwards at single-digit ownership can be difficult, but McMichael is projected for 6.5% on DraftKings and 8.8% on FanDuel. He is also projected to skate nearly 16 minutes, so that, combined with low ownership and cost, makes him an appealing salary-saver.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Moritz Seider (DET vs. PIT): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $5,700
Setting aside his 92 points in 164 games to start his career, Seider managed two shots and over two blocks per game in that stretch. That is a very solid peripheral floor in the NHL DFS game, particularly over on DraftKings. The shots are down in the early portions of this season, but he’s also averaging over three blocks per game, so the peripheral floor persists. His being back on the team’s top power play unit outweighs any small shot decline.
Among all blueliners priced under $6,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Seider ranks second and third, respectively, by point projections. That modest price and strong projection makes him a target for cash games, but in tournaments, he is expected to carry a lot of ownership (between 23% and 30% on the two sites). NHL DFS players on DraftKings should keep in mind that there are similarly priced options that will carry less ownership.
Rasmus Sandin (WSH at OTT): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $4,200
It has been a tough start for Washington, but Sandin has been earning a lot of ice time: His 20:12 per game at even strength leads all Capitals blueliners by 3:25 and is third in the entire league. Add a bit of power play time and he is pushing close to 23 minutes a night, which is about what he played in 19 games following his trade to Washington last season. He isn’t a big peripheral producer, but that level of ice time at his price means he can offer roughly 1.5 blocks per game, and that’s good enough for his price.
Among all defenders priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, Sandin is fifth and fourth by projected points, giving him fine value on both sites. He gets some secondary power play minutes, and after giving up 3.6 power plays to the opponent a year ago, Ottawa sits at 4.7 in the early portions of this campaign. Sandin is a fine target in any format tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Ville Husso (DET vs. PIT): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $7,600
Short slates mean very limited options in net. Husso is second among the four goalies in Stokastic NHL DFS projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s third in cost on both sites. That small discrepancy provides some value in net, and he’s carrying the second-highest point-per-dollar ratio of the four goalies.
One issue Pittsburgh has had for years now is finishing its shots. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, the team is fifth in the league in five-on-five shots per minute but 14th in goals scored. It is scoring more this season, but it is still generating the second-most shots per minute. It just takes one game of below-average finishing ability to provide a high fantasy score from the opposing goalie due to the probable shot volume, and that makes Husso a target in net tonight.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
DET1: Alex DeBrincat – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
The early returns on Detroit’s new top-line duo of Larkin and DeBrincat have been excellent, as the team has created 74 shot attempts, 3.2 expected goals and 5.1 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Those are great offensive numbers, and maintaining just 80% of that shot rate will lead to good offensive performances.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has this Detroit trio with the third-highest top-2 stack probability on both sites tonight. It will also carry a lot of ownership because of a reasonable price, so adding a defenseman like Seider or turning into a power play stack with David Perron is also acceptable to dilute that ownership.
OTT3: Dominik Kubalik – Josh Norris – Drake Batherson
As stated in the section on Norris, he has an exceptionally low price tonight, and that makes his line very cheap to roster: DraftKings has these three at $10,800, and FanDuel marks them at $12,000. If this line generates offense to their potential, that price tag could rise 50% over the next couple of weeks.
The crux is that the cheap price means heavy ownership. Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has them at 23% on FanDuel and nearly 30% on DraftKings. Both Batherson and Norris are expected to skate on the top power play unit, so adding someone like Tkachuk over Kubalik or defenseman Jake Sanderson to turn it into a power play stack is a way to get more unique.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
