One week of NHL matchups is in the books, and this Tuesday night offers a healthy eight-game slate as the NHL settles into the rhythm of the season. There are large contests in the NHL DFS realm this evening, and a lot of elite talent like Cale Makar, Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid, so let’s get to Stokastic’s NHL DFS picks.
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NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Tage Thompson (BUF vs. TB): DraftKings – $8,200 | FanDuel – $8,200
It has been a slow start to the season for Buffalo’s reigning 47-goal scorer, as Thompson has been held pointless through two games. The silver lining is that he managed a similar rate of shots (12.8 per 60 minutes) in those games as he did through all of last season (12.2). Buffalo, as a team, is also generating similar a similar shot rate with Thompson on the ice at even strength (39.6 per 60) as last season’s (36.6). Sometimes the puck goes in, and sometimes it doesn’t.
The good news for this slate is Buffalo is hosting a Tampa Bay team that is having an awful start itself. Through three games, the Lightning are 30th in the league by shots against at even strength, last by expected goals against and 31st by actual goals against. Three games don’t make a pattern, but the Lightning were also 21st, 17th and 21st by those measures, respectively, after the All-Star Break last season (34 games). This is now nearly a half season’s worth of defensive data showing below-average defensive ability.
Thompson is seeing less ice time than normal, and that’s keeping his projection low compared to other high-priced centers. It is also keeping his ownership low, however, as he’s projected under 4% on DraftKings and around 9% on FanDuel.
Brock Nelson (NYI vs. ARI): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,700
The Islanders’ second-line center may be one of the most underrated forwards in hockey: Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Nelson is in the 94th percentile among all regular forwards in goals scored per 60 minutes, exceeding superstars like Matthew Tkachuk and Nathan MacKinnon. His points per 60 are 80th percentile. which is higher than stars like Jack Eichel and Mark Scheifele. He doesn’t get minutes like those players – closer to 18 minutes than 20 – which is largely why his raw production doesn’t mirror theirs. Even still, he has back-to-back 35-goal campaigns and scored in his first outing this season.
The Coyotes are in town tonight and they played last night against the New York Rangers. That is a back-to-back for an Arizona team that is already giving up four power plays per game after leading the league in this regard a year ago. That is great news for Nelson, as he easily leads the Islanders in power play goal scoring in recent years.
Like Thompson, less-than-elite ice time for Nelson means a moderate projection for his price. Players like Bo Horvat and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are expected to skate more and thus have higher NHL DFS projections. It is a tremendous matchup, however, and Nelson’s goal-scoring prowess makes him a one-off option in tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Kyle Connor (WPG vs. LA): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $5,500
With just 0.38 goals per game in 2022-23, Connor endured his worst goal-scoring season since becoming a full-time player in 2017-18. He quickly put that season in the rearview mirror, with three goals, 4 points and 12 shots in two games to start this campaign. He leads all Winnipeg forwards at 21:55 per night in ice time, and maintaining anywhere close to that level would be a big improvement as well. The addition of Gabriel Vilardi to his opposite wing has paid immediate dividends, as the team is generating more shots with Connor on the ice at even strength now that Vilardi is there. They have played just two games, of course, but a good start.
In Winnipeg’s lone home game this season, Connor’s line was used very rarely against the opposing team’s top line. Los Angeles is visiting, and with their top line off the ice, the Kings are allowing more shots, expected goals and actual goals per minute to start the season. The Jets’ line matching will help Connor and his linemates find softer matchups, and that’s great for fantasy.
Stokastic’s early DraftKings NHL DFS projections have Connor higher than players like Jason Robertson and Mikko Rantanen despite both being more expensive. On FanDuel, he leads all wingers priced $6,000 or less. He is fine as a one-off option on both sites but is a much better value on FanDuel.
Martin Necas (CAR at SJ): DraftKings – $5,800 | FanDuel – $5,500
After a rebound 71-point season last year, Necas is off to a solid start this year, with 2 points in three games. His ice time is down a bit, but a big reason for that is the team has seen a lot of power play time and he has typically been skating on the second power play unit. It cost him 30 to 60 seconds a game, and adding that would bring him in line with last year’s levels.
Noting that power play time is important because he has been moved to the team’s top power play unit for this contest, replacing defenseman Brent Burns. The team’s power play goal rate with Necas on the ice more than doubles when he’s on the top unit rather than the second one, so it’s a move that should benefit him greatly. The Hurricanes are visiting a San Jose team that is awful defensively but doesn’t usually take a lot of penalties, though every bit helps in DFS.
Going into San Jose is a great road matchup, and the 24-year-old winger carries the third-highest projection on DraftKings for any winger priced $6,000 or less. That drops to sixth on FanDuel, but he’s still a very good value on that site because of the low cost.
Rafael Harvey-Pinard (MTL vs. MIN): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $4,300
An injury to center Kirby Dach has shuffled the Montreal lineup, and one result is Harvey-Pinard being moved to the team’s top line alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. In 2022-23, Harvey-Pinard played 32 games after Caufield was lost for the season due to injury. In those 32 games, he registered 14 goals and 20 points while skating largely with Suzuki. With that duo on the ice at five-on-five, Montreal generated 2.9 expected goals, 28.8 shots and 4.0 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those numbers were all lower when Suzuki didn’t have Harvey-Pinard beside him, and that includes a very productive three-month stretch with Caufield.
Montreal is hosting Minnesota, and the road team has been struggling defensively to start the year, as it is in the bottom 10 by all defensive metrics at five-on-five. The Wild are still without star blueliner Jared Spurgeon, and that’s a big part of the slow start.
This slate has 49 wingers priced under $3,000 and listed to play tonight on DraftKings. Of those 49 wingers, Harvey-Pinard is fourth by point projection. His new role makes him a salary-saving target on all sites.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Evan Bouchard (EDM at NSH): DraftKings – $6,100 | FanDuel – $6,000
Edmonton’s young star defenseman has had an odd start to the season, as he’s posted identical production lines in each of his first two games: One power play assist, five shots and two blocks. He also skated over 24 minutes in each contest, and that’s a big improvement over his final 20 games last season when he was close to 21 minutes a night. Since the start of 2021-22, Bouchard’s shot rate is in the 95th percentile for blueliners so more minutes should only help his DFS production floor.
Facing off against goalie Juuse Saros is a worrisome proposition for any team, but the Oilers scored nine goals in two games on him last season. They are a team that can dominate anyone and the plethora of high-end blueliners on this slate is giving Bouchard NHL DFS ownership projections of 5% or less on both sites. He is a tournament target on defense tonight.
Nicolas Hague (VGK vs. DAL): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – $4,300
With Alex Pietrangelo missing from the lineup last game, one of the big ice-time beneficiaries was Hague as he managed 22:46, his highest regular season total in 40 contests. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Hague is one of 12 rearguards to average at least five blocks and five shots per 60 minutes. His issue has long been not getting much ice time but if he’s going to skate over 22 minutes until Pietrangelo returns, that should help his peripheral production immensely.
There are viable defensemen in this price range on DraftKings tonight, mainly those in the Arizona-New York game. Hague is certainly one of them, as he’s expected to provide over 2 DraftKings fantasy points per $1,000. He is a nice salary-saving rearguard for tonight’s DFS contests.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Jake Oettinger (DAL at VGK): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,400
Beginning in 2021-22, Oettinger is ninth among regular goalies by five-on-five save percentage, and a big reason is the team limited him to seeing the seventh-fewest high-danger shots per minute. Dallas is a team that can limit quality, and easy saves are a good way to pump up DFS value.
Of all the goalies projected to start tonight, Stokastic has 10 that are expected to make at least 28 saves. Oettinger is among those 10 goalies, and he carries the second-fewest expected goals allowed. That combination, along with a moderate price, makes him one of the top goalie values on the board for DraftKings.
Over on FanDuel, he is priced up considerably, and though he’s still playable, he doesn’t present the same value opportunity. Instead, FanDuel players should look to Connor Hellebuyck (WPG, $7,700) if they want to save some money.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
NYI2: Pierre Engvall – Brock Nelson – Kyle Palmieri
Going back to last season, this second line is now over 150 minutes together at five-on-five. That stretch has seen it post 3.5 expected goals, 42.1 shots and 6.7 actual goals per 60 minutes. It is overheating by shooting percentage — 15.8% — but the line is simply generating so many shots and chances that just a 10% conversion rate would have it as an elite production line. As long as it keeps creating offense as it has, it is a threat to score whenever it hits the ice.
The worrisome part is Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has both Islanders top lines with significant negative leverage. The high-end play of this line means it is an option, but turning it from an even-strength stack into a power play one by adding a player like Mathew Barzal or Horvat is one route to avoid the high individual ownership levels.
EDM1: Evander Kane – Leon Draisaitl – Connor McDavid
Back-to-back losses to start the year have gotten Edmonton to stack its top line, putting Draisaitl alongside McDavid. Unsurprisingly, with that duo on the ice at five-on-five over the last three seasons, Edmonton scores 3.8 goals per 60 minutes, which is a huge offensive number. They both play well over 20 minutes a night – they are over 23 so far this year – which means the scoring efficiency, including the power play, is magnified by their ice time. Kane doesn’t skate on the power play with them, but any winger skating on their line is worthy of rostering.
Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool has these three with the most positive leverage of any line on both sites tonight. A big reason is due to their cost, as they are nearly half a player’s budget on DraftKings. There are a number of viable secondary stacks priced under $12,000, though, and that means this Edmonton unit should be heavily considered.
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*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
