The FedEx Cup Playoffs wrap up this week with the 2023 Tour Championship. This playoff finale will be played at East Lake Golf Club (par 70, 7,346 yards, Bermuda greens) in Atlanta, Georgia, which has been the home of the Tour Championship since 2004. For the fifth consecutive season, this no-cut event will feature staggered scoring to begin the tournament, with each golfer in this 30-man field starting with a score based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings. Sitting atop the FedEx Cup standings, Scottie Scheffler begins this week in the lead at -10. The rest of the field’s opening scores can be viewed on the PGA Tour website through this link. Let’s look at Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool to find the best leverage PGA DFS picks for the Tour Championship.
Leverage scores compare a golfer’s ownership to their salary-weighted odds to finish in the top 6 of the tournament. It is one of many metrics in Stokastic’s tools that use the fantasy point and ownership projections to find the top PGA DFS plays each week.
PGA DFS Picks & Leverage: 2023 Tour Championship
Designed by Donald Ross, East Lake is a long par 70 with narrow, tree-lined fairways, thick rough and fast putting surfaces. World-class drivers have had an advantage at this track and need to be a priority this week, as for nine years in a row, the winner at East Lake has finished the tournament top 7 in strokes gained off the tee. This course is a traditional par 70 that features 12 par 4’s and only two par 5’s, making elite par-4 players also great targets, with four of the last five victors at East Lake ranking top-three in par-4 efficiency during their wins in Atlanta.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 4th
Fitzpatrick will begin this week in the sixth-best position at -4, and he is coming off a runner-up finish at the BMW Championship last week, in which he gained strokes in every major category at Olympia Fields, including a field-best 7.6 strokes with his putter. Fitzpatrick has now finished inside the top 20 in half his starts this season and his terrific performance at the BMW Championship certainly bodes well for this week, with East Lake being a lengthy par 70 similar to Olympia Fields.
Fitzpatrick has a 22.9% chance to finish inside the top 6 this weekend according to Stokastic’s Top Golfers Tool and is arguably the best GPP option available for the Tour Championship, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Lucas Glover
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 6th
With Stokastic forecasting Glover to be the lowest-owned golfer on DraftKings this week at 3.9%, he is a must-have for GPPs. Glover is in the midst of an incredible run of golf, posting five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, including back-to-back wins earlier this month, one of which came at Sedgefield for the Wyndham Championship, which like East Lake, was designed by Ross. This impressive seven start stretch has vaulted Glover up 136 spots in the world golf rankings to No. 30 – his highest ranking in over 12 years – and he will begin the Tour Championship in the fifth best position at -5 but is only the ninth-most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week.
Ranking second in strokes gained on approach and 10th in strokes gained off the tee over his last 50 rounds, very few players head to East Lake in better form as a ball striker than Glover. If he can find some luck with his putter this week, he has the potential for a top-three finish.
Jason Day
Stokastic PGA DFS Optimizer Leverage Ranks: DraftKings: 8th
Despite his questionable form and starting this event at -1, Day is worth taking a chance on in GPPs this week. He has produced three top-10 finishes in seven appearances at East Lake and he ranks fourth in the field in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds on Ross tracks.
Ranking 19th in total driving this season, Day has been excellent off-the-tee and he has also been crafty around the greens, ranking 31st in strokes gained around the green, which is great news with East Lake up next. Of the last four winners at this venue, two have ranked top-three in strokes gained around the green during their victories. Day clearly has the tools to thrive at East Lake and is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs, with Stokastic forecasting to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings.
