Wednesday brings wall-to-wall baseball, with the main MLB DFS sites each handling the slates and today’s doubleheader differently. Be sure you know the various start times on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to RHP Kevin Gausman and the Washington Nationals as a strong tournament combination.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman at Baltimore Orioles — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $48
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is recommending RHP Kevin Gausman as he takes on the Orioles in Baltimore, where he began his career back in the 2013 season. Looking at OddsShopper, we can see that Gausman (+300) is battling with fellow righties Gerrit Cole (-180) and Luis Castillo (+250) for the American League Cy Young Award. Currently the 32-year-old ace trails only Spencer Strider (227 strikeouts, 14.0 K/9) with his 187 strikeouts as well as 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings.
The projected lineup for the Batters of Birdland does a decent job of limiting strikeouts, though it will still have at least three hitters with a 25% whiff rate over the last two seasons towards the top of the lineup. It is cooler in the DC Metro area tonight, with Baltimore looking at game-time temperatures in the upper-70s. That, combined with the recent renovations of Camden Yards, will be making things a little more pitching friendly for this matchup.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Reid Detmers vs. Cincinnati Reds — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel n/a | Yahoo n/a
Because the Reds and Angels are playing a second consecutive doubleheader, FanDuel and Yahoo are skipping this game on their iterations of the featured slate. FanDuel is including the 6:40 p.m. ET game, so RHP Aaron Civale in Tampa against the visiting Colorado Rockies is an excellent option. On Yahoo, take the extreme discount for RHP Jose Urquidy ($29), even with his recent struggles.
Speaking of recent struggles, LHP Reid Detmers has had his own, allowing seven runs in two of his last three outings. To be fair, one of those games was against a surging Seattle squad, and the other was against the Astros in Houston. In his last start, Detmers held the Rangers scoreless for 7.1 innings in Arlington, allowing just one hit but issuing four walks on 108 pitches. Considering the season-high workload, the Angels have given Detmers a full week between starts, so he should be in the usual 90- to 100-pitch range tonight, as long as he is effective.
Walks have been an issue for Detmers this season, but his career-high 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings have made DFS gamers happy. This will be the second game of today’s doubleheader, so while we will have to wait and see who makes it into the Cincinnati lineup, we can be reasonably certain that the roster will also have a strong strikeout baseline.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Minnesota Twins — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $48
This afternoon, RHP Corbin Burnes is a strong option as the DFS ace in a matchup against the visiting Minnesota Twins. In his last nine starts, the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner has allowed two or fewer runs on eight occasions. Burnes currently leads the league with a miniscule 1.059 WHIP, and he is also first among qualified starters in hits per nine innings, allowing just 6.3.
While his strikeouts were well below his typical standards for the first portion of the season, Burnes has 10.3 per nine innings over his last nine appearances, which are borderline elite. In this timeframe, he has a 2.34 ERA, 3.01 FIP and a .138 batting average against. The projected Minnesota lineup does have some pop, with a .171 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. However, these same Twins also have a 29.4% strikeout rate, which plays right into Burnes’ strength.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Washington Nationals at RHP Luis Severino — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool is intrigued by the Nationals tonight, particularly on DraftKings and Yahoo, where the respective salary algorithms have increased the cap hit for the top portion of the lineup. On tap is a matchup with RHP Luis Severino, who has struggled mightily since the calendar flipped over to July. In his last eight outings, the erstwhile ace has been dreadful, with an 11.08 ERA, a 7.97 FIP and an absurd .384 batting average against. Even more ludicrous are 15 walks and 12 home runs in these 31.2 innings.
Over the last 30 days, CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, Stone Garrett and catcher Keibert Ruiz have been firing on all cylinders. Abrams has a dozen steals in his last 19 starts, and the rest of the quartet is in the .350 wOBA and .200 ISO range. We will be paying top dollar for Abrams, Thomas and Meneses on DraftKings, but this should keep them underrepresented in tournaments — particularly with the Atlanta Braves in a prime spot and all of the key hitters carrying a 20% premium or higher than their Washington counterparts.
There is weather in Cleveland, though it does seem like the game should get in without too much of an issue, based on early forecasts. That has the Dodgers as another premier offense rivaling Atlanta, which should make for a fun tournament environment on the featured slate.
Early Slate Target: Seattle Mariners at RHP Michael Kopech — 5.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Break one off for the Mariners, who have an eight-game winning streak, which is currently the longest in the league. They have clearly enjoyed the hitting conditions in Chicago, with 20 runs through the first two games of this series. This afternoon they will be facing RHP Michael Kopech, who has ceded multiple longballs in four of his last five starts.
Seattle could really use another left-handed hitter, but Jarred Kelenic is still sidelined after his self-inflicted injury, courtesy of a dugout tantrum. Fortunately, switch-hitter Cal Raleigh has been on a tear, and he has a .426 wOBA and a .437 ISO in his last 78 lefty-righty matchups. Julio Rodriguez has escaped his sophomore slump, and in his last 97 same-handed matchups, he has an equally impressive .442 wOBA and .309 ISO. This duo can be augmented in full stacks with leadoff man J.P. Crawford, third baseman Eugenio Suarez and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.
Cade Marlowe and Dominic Canzone are the unsung heroes at the bottom of the order who have both the platoon advantage as well as a minimum salary cap hit this afternoon.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez is an interesting option in the sports wagering market. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the +680 line for him to knock one into the stands is outpacing his +576 “true odds,” which gives bettors close to a 12% expected value for the current wager.
RHP Charlie Morton does a decent job of limiting home runs with his groundball tendencies, but he is not impervious to opposing power bats. Alvarez already has 21 dingers, with 18 coming at the expense of same-handed pitchers. It is going to be warm and humid in Atlanta, with game-time temperatures starting around 90 degrees and dropping to the low-80s towards the later innings, which is boost to bats.
Home runs are longshots, but the Stokastic tools in conjunction with OddsShopper.com have consistently found values and inefficient lines all season. Alvarez has about an 18% chance for a home run tonight, but we do have odds slightly leaning in our favor for anything that is +580 or better.
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Final Thoughts for Wednesday, August 23 | MLB DFS Picks
The only venue with any precipitation risk worth noting is in Cleveland, where the Los Angeles Dodgers and Guardians are wrapping up their series tonight.
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