It’s time for Stokastic’s weekly dive into NFL DFS projections. Who are the top NFL DFS wide receiver picks and fades for Week 8 on DraftKings and FanDuel based on the data? Let’s dig into the wide receiver pool for this Sunday.
Top NFL DFS Wide Receivers & Fades for Week 8
NFL player projections for the Week 8 main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel are out, so let’s see how the Stokastic data is looking at this point in the week.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 8 DraftKings & FanDuel Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
What a season it’s been so far for A.J. Brown, who’s up to 52 receptions (75 targets) for 809 yards and three touchdowns through Philadelphia’s 6-1 start. Brown was highly effective in Week 7, tormenting the Dolphins for 10 receptions on 15 targets for 137 yards and a touchdown, and now gets another crack at the Commanders in Week 8.
You may remember Brown going nuclear for 175 receiving yards and two scores against Washington in Week 4. For this week, Brown’s boom probability is at 8.6% on DraftKings ($8,000 salary) and 8.2% on FanDuel ($8,700), and at time of writing, his ownership projections are a shade under 10% on both sites.
Looking over the A.J. Brown odds, bets and player props page at OddsShopper, his receiving yards prop is at 89.5 yards and his anytime touchdown prop is available at +115 this Sunday. Washington enters this home date with Philadelphia having surrendered the fourth-most points (27.1) and yards (374.1) per game thus far in 2023, with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles implied for 25 points for this NFC East showdown.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
At least early on in the week, there is strong positive leverage on Brandon Aiyuk for Week 8’s game against the Bengals. Current NFL DFS ownership projections have the 49ers wideout at 6.6% projected ownership, and he’s showing up optimally in 17.2% of lineups at $7,000 on DraftKings, giving Aiyuk a 10.6% leverage score (highest among all WRs for Week 8).
Obviously, the data could shift as we get closer to Sunday kickoff, but as of now, only Tyreek Hill is showing in more optimal lineups than Aiyuk, based on Stokastic’s NFL simulations. On FanDuel, he is $7,700 and is carrying a 7.6% boom probability along with an optimal rate of 15.8%.
If we head to OddsShopper, Aiyuk has a yardage prop of 61.5 receiving yards, and he’s at +130 to score a touchdown at any point in the game. Last week against the Vikings, Aiyuk was unable to hit his ceiling, finishing with his worst statistical output since Week 2 — will he be able to get back on track with Deebo Samuel again ruled out in Week 8?
NFL DFS Fades | Week 8 DraftKings & FanDuel Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
The DeAndre Hopkins experiment in Tennessee has not quite gone according to plan, and now rumors are swirling that the Titans may be looking to shop him around before the deadline hits. That will be some interesting drama to monitor, as will the starting quarterback situation in Nashville, with Ryan Tannehill likely out injured and Will Levis expected to get his first NFL start this weekend.
As we peruse through Stokastic’s Week 8 boom and bust probabilities, which measure how likely players are to meet their respective ceilings and floors relative to their median projections, we see Hopkins has one of the higher bust probabilities of the entire player pool at his salaries of $5,500 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel. These numbers will surely change slightly over the next couple of days, but as of now, he’s at a 58.2% bust probability and 1.2% boom probability on DK and a 55.6% bust probability and 0.2% boom probability on FD.
The DeAndre Hopkins odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper has Hopkins’ receiving yards prop at 46.5 yards and an anytime TD line of approximately +315 for Week 8’s matchup with the Falcons.
We highly recommend going through the full data for the WR position and the rest of the DraftKings and FanDuel pools for Week 8. Don’t forget to monitor the player news and updated NFL DFS projections as we get closer to kickoff as well, to see if better NFL DFS wide receiver picks and values open up before lock.
Also remember that accurate player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups each week.
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NFL Boom/Bust Probability
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