In this weekly series, we will take a closer look at the top NFL DFS running backs and fades for the upcoming daily fantasy football slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Based on Stokastic’s NFL player projections data, where should we focus our attention when making our NFL DFS picks and building our Week 8 daily fantasy football lineups?
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 8
NFL player projections for the Week 8 main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel are out, so let’s see how the Stokastic data is looking at this point in the week.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 8 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Another interesting slate at the running back position awaits in Week 8. If we check out Stokastic’s NFL DFS player projections and boom probabilities for the slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, Tony Pollard is fourth among all running backs in boom probability on DraftKings and first when we shift over to FanDuel.
Pollard’s salaries ($7,500 on DraftKings / $7,600 on FanDuel) are palatable on both sites, he is still dominating opportunities and playing time at the position, and he’s being heavily involved in the passing game to make up for his middling efficiency on the ground. DFS players will have to weigh potential high ownership, as the Cowboys back is projected for a little over 20% ownership on DraftKings and 30% ownership on FanDuel.
When we check out the Tony Pollard odds, bets and player props page on OddsShopper, his rushing yards prop is in the 67.5 to 69.5 yard range, his receiving yards prop is at around 25.5, and his anytime touchdown line is at -140. The Cowboys are implied for a shade under 26 points and are favored by 6.5 at home against Los Angeles.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
The Jets have reeled off back-to-back wins over the Eagles (20-14) and Broncos (31-21) to move to 3-3 on the season, and Breece Hall‘s play has been a foundational part of the success. He had 93 total yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against Philadelphia, a week after destroying Denver for 194 total yards and a score, with New York then going on a bye in Week 7.
Now Hall and the Jets will take aim at the Giants in Week 8, and they have been one of the most disappointing teams of 2023. The game-breaking back has seen his snap counts rise from 44% in Week 4 to 52% in Week 5 and then 66% in Week 6, and it’s been encouraging to see him being involved in the passing game. He’s recorded at least three catches in each of his last three games.
Hall, who is also expected to carry high ownership, is currently hitting 13.6% of optimal lineups on DraftKings and 13.8% of optimal lineups on FanDuel based on Stokastic’s simulations. Per OddsShopper, he has a rushing yards prop of 67.5 and a receiving yards prop of 16.5, and he’s +130 to reach paydirt this Sunday.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 8 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
It was a brutal Sunday for those who played Bijan Robinson, as the rookie only logged one touch because he was reportedly not feeling well. Instead, Tyler Allgeier got all the work he could handle, finishing with 21 carries for 59 yards and three catches for 53 additional yards in the 16-13 road win over Tampa Bay.
You’d have to think Robinson will be back in the saddle assuming a sizable chunk of the available rushing work for Week 8’s tough matchup with the Titans, relegating Allgeier back to more of a complementary role. NFL DFS projections are not loving the BYU product this Sunday, as he’s projected for only 7.0 fantasy points on DraftKings and 6.6 fantasy points on FanDuel.
Stokastic has Allgeier at a 76.6% bust probability at $5,000 on DraftKings and 74.0% bust probability at $6,200 on FanDuel, with Atlanta implied for just under 19 points as a team.
Green Bay’s A.J. Dillon ($5,100 on DraftKings / $6,500 on FanDuel) is another running back with a high bust probability at close to 60% on both sites, which is understandable since Aaron Jones could see more volume in Week 8 after successfully returning from injury last week.
We highly recommend going through the full running back data to see what else stands out for this weekend.
There is some important injury news we are waiting on, so it will be critical to monitor any updates that come in all the way through Sunday to see if better NFL DFS picks and running back values open up before lock.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
More Stokastic Week 8 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
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NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
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