This week’s event obviously is not super conducive to a robust first-round leader market. There are only 30 players to choose from to begin with, and there is also the weird handicap format that most sportsbooks are choosing to recognize in their first-round odds. That leaves some very short numbers to tackle for traditional first-round leader bets.
As a bonus, we will also have a first-round matchup bet to look at. It is not the same kind of longshot odds as are typical, but there are a couple of solid-looking players out there to back in the first round.
As always, this column will use OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for the Tour Championship first-round leader selections. In a field with just 30 golfers, it is OK to look for a few shorter odds on a course where off-tee specialists should have an advantage.
Tour Championship First Round Leader Bets
Viktor Hovland First Round Leader With Strokes (+350, BetMGM)
Hovland is not a golfer to fade at the moment. He absolutely stole Scottie Scheffler’s soul last week in the final round, and a few days off in between events may not be enough for Scheffler to recover. Ultimately, Hovland has to make up a two-stroke lead to win, but that kind of deficit is not something that will deter a player of his caliber. He is coming off a week where he gained over nine strokes ball striking and has better-than-advertised course history at East Lake, having shot a 65 here in each of his last two appearances. Obviously, the sportsbooks have caught onto Hovland at this point, and the number is not huge, but it feels better backing him than McIlroy, who is an extra shot back, has two elite golfers to go through and is not playing as well. Hovland gets the nod for the final first-round leader bet of the year.
Sam Burns (-115) Over Jason Day – First Round Matchup (DraftKings)
Day is one player who looks ready for a break right now. His last two starts have been disastrous from a ball-striking perspective, and he managed to lose over 10 strokes on approach alone last week at the BMW. Considering he has also lost strokes around the green (typically a strength of his game) in his last two starts, whatever is broken in his body and mind will probably not be fixed over a two- to three-day rest. Burns is also playing pretty solid golf and has gained over three strokes putting on the East Lake greens each of the past two years. Even it will require a little juice to take Burns, it is a really good spot to jump on him for a first-round matchup bet.
![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600):  Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
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