The 2023 Wyndham Championship is the last chance for several players to survive the PGA’s playoff bubble. Only the top 70 and ties advance this week and get their PGA TOUR cards guaranteed after this Sunday. Any players not in the top 70 will only secure a card if they finish top 125 overall after the fall (so anywhere inside 71st-125th in the rankings). In this post, we’ll be making our Wyndham Championship first round leader picks, DFS predictions and more.
This kind of setup brings with it lots of internal pressure to perform and adding to that unknown this week is potential weather concerns we need to keep an eye on for this Thursday’s first round. The wind and rain are supposed to pick up in the afternoon on Thursday making it far more likely that early starters get an edge. That trend would also play into a larger one that has seen four of the last six first-round leaders at Sedgefield come from the a.m. wave — while shooting a 62 or better.
Scoring may not get too crazy this Thursday but don’t be shocked if you see someone flirt with 59 down the stretch. The soft greens will obviously favour the ball-strikers but anyone with strong strokes gained approach stats over the last few events, even if it’s just for a round or two, should be respected in this one-round format for betting.
In terms of betting, we’ve already narrowed the field down to a.m. tee times only, thanks to the weather and recent trends with FRLs at this venue. That’s allowed us to pick from a shorter player pool and, hopefully, will lead to some good results this Thursday as well.
As always, this column will use OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for the Wyndham Championship first-round leader selections. In a field with just a few big names, it will of course be beneficial to look for a few longshot bets to add to cards.
Wyndham Championship First-Round Leader Bets
Stephan Jaeger First Round Leader (+5500) at DraftKings
Jaeger has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA TOUR this season. He’s now made 14 of his last 15 cuts and comes in off a decent effort in Minnesota where he gained over 6.0 strokes ball-striking and closed with a round of 66. It’s sometimes been frustrating to back Jaeger for betting purposes as the long game is good enough for him to win right now but his putter doesn’t always (rarely) cooperates. In a lot of ways, this makes him an ideal first-round leader target as we only need one round of hot putting to cash in. He’s ranked 8th in first-round leader scoring this season and did hit an outright for us in this department back at the Valspar. With him coming off a solid week and having a very early tee time for Thursday’s first round, he’s an easy player to start FRL bets with this week.
Eric Cole First Round Leader (+6600) at BetMGM and First Round Top 5 (+1100) at BetMGM
Cole is another player I could see getting off to a fast start this Thursday. The American has been hovering around leaderboards since early March and, like Jaeger, comes into this week off a solid effort in Minnesota where he finished 30th but gained 7.4 strokes putting + approach combined. Cole’s issues of late have been strictly off the tee, but Sedgefield’s tight setup means he’ll have to hit far fewer drivers as the technical layout favors placement off the tee over power. Like Jaeger, Cole has also flourished on Thursdays and comes in ranked 12th in first-round scoring. Despite the good form and ideal setup, he’s got far bigger odds than a lot of his peers this week at 66-1 and 12-1 for a top 10 in the first-round leader department. With an early tee time, Cole’s a great add to cards and makes sense as a top 10 play on BetMGM as well, given the bigger odds.
Wyndham Championship First Round Leader Longshot Bets
Longshots often hit in the first-round market and are worth adding to betting cards. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Doug Ghim First Round Leader (+7500) at DraftKings and First Round Top 5 (+1100) at BetMGM
Ghim started last week in absolute shambles as the 27-year-old shot +3 on a course that was playing well under par for the pros. His rebound was extremely impressive, however, as the former top amateur shot 63 on Friday and then followed that up by shooting 6-under par on the weekend to finish in 27th. Ghim’s putting is still a concern, and whether or not he can sink enough putts to contend on Sunday here remains to be seen. However, for a first-round leader prospect, you have to like his chances. He’s got an early tee time and should be buzzing with confidence after rebounding so well last week when he could have easily packed things in and taken an L. At +7500, his early tee time makes him a solid longshot play and another player you can take in the placement department for Thursday at bigger odds on BetMGM.
Sam Ryder First Round Leader (+9000) at DraftKings and First Round Top 10 (+1400) at BetMGM
Don’t look now, but Ryder may be back. The 33-year-old has suffered through a mostly miserable summer, landing just three made cuts against seven missed cuts in his last 10 starts. It’s hard to remember at this point, but Ryder was all over leaderboards in the early part of the season landing big top-five finishes at the Farmers and Valero Texas Open to start his year. He shot 14 under par over his final three rounds in Minnesota last week and also gained over 7.0 strokes ball-striking. Ryder has played Sedgefield numerous times and has an early tee time for us this Thursday, which makes him attractive, regardless of his recent form. He’s a player we have seen start fast numerous times this season already as he has shot 65 or better in the first round three times in 2022-23. At long odds, he makes for a great way to round off cards.
