Broncos at Chargers Showdown: Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson Square Off in MNF Battle Royale (October 17)

Monday brings yet another Denver Broncos appearance on an island game. Clearly we have all seen enough to know that this team struggles on offense (2-3) while being bailed out time and again by their defense. The Los Angeles Chargers are the only team in the league to hold a winning record (3-2) with a negative point differential (-14).

Heading into NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 6 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Denver Broncos at the Los Angeles Chargers.

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NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 6 Monday Night Football

Denver will be without LB Josey Jewell (knee) and DB Caden Sterns (hip). The Broncos have half a dozen players listed as questionable, though all are expected to play. Defensive backs Michael Ojemudia (elbow) and Justin Simmons (quad) are both nearing a return from the injured list.

Los Angeles likely will see Keenan Allen (hamstring) sidelined yet again and of course LB Joey Bosa (groin) is likely out for another two months.

Denver Broncos: 20.5 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic fantasy projections have Russell Wilson ranked as the QB16 for Week 6 for the respective scoring formats on DraftKings and FanDuel. Wilson has been dealing with a sore shoulder muscle and he received a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection last week. That may not be the source of all of his early season woes, though it is likely not helping either.

Los Angles has the 12th best passing DVOA according to Football Outsiders, though they are missing linebacker Joey Bosa. Aside from Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes in the first two games of the season, the Chargers have not faced any quarterback performing at an above replacement level of performance. If Denver can get anything going on the ground and work in some play action passes, there is a chance we could see a fantasy relevant game from Wilson.

Running Back

Javonte Williams will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Last week in the first game without him, Melvin Gordon III played on 56% of the snaps with Mike Boone seeing action on 41% and Devine Ozigbo getting his first three offensive plays of the season. Andrew Beck should continue to see action on a quarter of the plays in his H-Back role while Latavius Murray is expected to suit up this week after not having enough practice time to become acclimated with the Denver offense as he was signed from the Saints practice squad. Gordon (neck/ribs) and Boone (foot) are both dinged up, but expected to play.

Gordon is carrying a heavy salary cap hit on FanDuel ($12,000) and DraftKings ($8,200) considering he is definitely in a timeshare and at best will see around two-thirds of the opportunities, with a good chance he gets just over half. Boone is in play for a significant discount and he is better than Murray at this stage of their careers.

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton has been on the field for 93% of the snaps this season with Jerry Jeudy coming in with 86% in each of the last two games. K.J. Hamler may finally be healthy and his 39 plays (53%) against the Colts were the most since the season opener. Sutton has had at least seven targets in every game and three with double digits. Jeudy has not been as prolific, but he has five or more in four of the five games thus far. The rest of the wideouts have combined for just 15 targets, though five can be attributed to Kendall Hinton who will likely be inactive. Hamler has received only four looks from Wilson, but two came last week.

Tight End

Eric Saubert is coming off a career high seven targets last week while Albert Okwuegbunam continues to be relegated to afterthought status seeing five opportunities in the last four games and just one in the last two. In the last two games, Eric Tomlinson has played 59 snaps compared to 16 for Okwuegbunam, though he has just one target in this timeframe. Greg Dulcich is also close to returning making this a crowded situation.

Defense/Special Teams

Denver has racked up 17 sacks through the first five games, though Los Angeles has ceded only five on the year. The Chargers have suffered just four turnovers, which is the fourth fewest in the league. The Broncos have not been able to capitalize with their defense yet, tallying just half a dozen takeaways.

Los Angeles Chargers: 25.0 Points

Quarterback

Justin Herbert is being tasked with a tough row to hoe as he squares off against the Broncos defense. Denver has allowed only Jimmy Garoppolo (211) and Matt Ryan (251) to throw for more than 200 yards and they have allowed only three aerial scores with zero over the last two games.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler is of course they player who supplanted Gordon back in their San Diego days. The six-year veteran continues to be one of the best dual threat running backs in the game and he is still underrated when it comes to red zone success. For the last three seasons he has held off a parade of goal line backs that the team has brought in to take care of the red zone running attempts, including Sony Michel this year.

Though Ekeler typically is on the field for just under 60% of the plays, he gets the ball at a very high rate, as evidenced by his 33 pass targets, which is the second most on the team. Joshua Kelley seems to be the backup and he has two targets in every game this season and he had a high of 10 rushing attempts in the “Midge” game in Cleveland last weekend. Word around the campfire is that Kelley will be getting the next chance at red zone work as the team continues to try and avoid excess pounding on Ekeler. We need to see it before we believe it.

Wide Receiver

Mike Williams is the last man standing as Keenan Allen (hamstring) was injured in Week 1 and Jalen Guyton (knee) is out for the season. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos choose to have Patrick Surtain II locked onto Williams all night.

This does not mean Williams is out of play by any stretch, but if he is going to be shadowed by one of the best coverage cornerbacks in the game, Herbert could be looking Josh Palmer’s direction. In the four games without Allen, Palmer has 24 targets. Journeyman DeAndre Carter has been serving as the third wideout, though he is averaging only three targets over the last month.

Tight End

Gerald Everett is an underrated tight end and he is on pace to reach his career highs by Thanksgiving. He is third on the team with 29 targets and he has seen an uptick in opportunities as part of the group effort to fill the void left by Allen. In his last four games, Everett has two dozen targets and he should see six or seven tonight.

Tre’ McKitty and Donald Parham Jr. are the backups. Though McKitty is usually on the field half of the time, he has just three looks in the last four games.

Defense/Special Teams

Denver is allowing just over three sacks per game, though Los Angeles is recording only two per tilt. The Chargers have six interceptions, but are still looking for their first fumble recovery.

Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 6 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Austin Ekeler: Captain my Captain!
2. Courtland Sutton: Tonight he gets his second touchdown of the season.
3. Gerald Everett: Salary savings is crucial, should see half a dozen targets and is live in the red zone.
4. Justin Herbert: Only four touchdowns in the last three games, does have three multi-touchdown efforts but lack of rushing upside makes him more of a one-trick pony.
5. Mike Williams: All it takes is one big play to have his supporters smiling, Surtain will do his best to stop that from happening.
6. Josh Palmer: Solid pivot away from Williams along with a decent salary discount.
7. Russell Wilson: Your mileage may vary.
8. Jerry Jeudy: Do we know if he is good or just average?
9. Brandon McManus: Will his coach remember that balls do not carry as far at sea-level?
10. Dustin Hopkins: Replacement level kicker.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Melvin Gordon: Salary is high for someone not guaranteed a full workload.
2. Denver D/ST: Always a better play at home, still viable on the road in the single-game format.
3. DeAndre Carter: Solid on DraftKings as a discount dandy, utterly forgettable on FanDuel unless he scores.
4. Mike Boone: Not particularly exciting, but he could surpass Gordon in a “hot hand” situation.
5. Joshua Kelley: DraftKings increased his salary from $2,400 last week to $6,400 tonight. Better option at $7,500 on FanDuel.

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Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Eric Saubert: So close to making the above section. Somehow he is $400 cheaper than Okwuegbunam on DraftKings and $1,500 on FanDuel.
2. Los Angeles D/ST: Missing Bosa, but we can all close our eyes and envision a Wilson pick-six.
3. K.J. Hamler: Will he get more than two targets tonight?
4. Greg Dulcich and Eric Tomlinson: DraftKings only at the minimum salary, one of them needs to be inactive for the other to have a realistic chance at a target.
5. Albert Okwuegbunam and Tre’ McKitty: Fun names to say, less than fun options to play.
6. Sony Michel and Latavius Murray: RB3s for their respective teams, each should get a carry or two.
7. Andrew Beck, Devine Ozigbo, Donald Parham Jr., Tyrie Cleveland, Zander Horvath and Michael Bandy: Yikes, what a motley crew.

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