Week 14 is already here, and there is a relatively small 10-game slate with six teams on bye. Moving forward, the slate sizes will increase with the byes ending this week. Let’s dive right in! This article features four boom candidates for NFL DFS picks in Week 14, including Jared Goff and four bust/fade options at each position on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using this tool as the main NFL DFS projections source is imperative when constructing DraftKings and FanDuel NFL lineups.
NFL DFS Picks Week 14: Best High-Upside Plays
NFL DFS Picks Week 14 Boom Picks
QB Jared Goff – Detroit Pistons
DraftKings – $5,600; 10.6% Boom | FanDuel – $7,100; 6.0% Boom
By far the best game environment on this 10-game slate is this NFC North division battle between the Lions and Vikings. The total in this game currently sits at 51.5 points, which is 5 points higher than the next closest game. With the Lions as 2-point home favorites, Stokastic’s high-upside quarterback is Jared Goff. He looks much better on DraftKings compared to FanDuel with a super low salary of $5,600. Goff has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the fourth highest on FanDuel this week. Even in Stokastic’s projections, Goff is the best value on DraftKings and the second-best on FanDuel.
The Vikings are 10-2, but their defense ranks 24th in pass DVOA this season. They have a point differential of +10, which is the worst in the history of the NFL with a team who has a 10-2. It is still a bit surprising the 5-7 Lions are favored at home, but after a slow start the Lions have won four of their last five games with their only loss coming by 3 points to the Bills. According to Goff he is playing the “best football of his career” right now. He’s not wrong. Goff is coming off of 340 yards passing and two touchdowns, while completing 75.6% of his passes last game. He is the best point per dollar player on DraftKings this week.
RB Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
DraftKings – $7,900; 21.3% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 19.0% Boom
There are a few teams that Derrick Henry absolutely dominates, and the Jaguars are certainly on that list. In his last six games against the Jaguars, Henry has averaged 145 yards rushing per game and 12 touchdowns. During that stretch, he had two games where he rushed for well over 200 yards. Henry will get a chance to add to his totals in this matchup, as the Jaguars defense ranks 29th in total DVOA this season allowing 376.1 total yards per game. The Titans are 4-point favorites with this game having just a 41-point total. Expect the Titans to control the pace with a heavy dose of Henry.
Henry has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week as the only player with above a 20% on either site. Despite being a slightly better play on DraftKings this week, Henry is coming in with more ownership on FanDuel at his $9,000 price tag. Entering December, getting exposure to Henry when the weather starts to get cold is always a fantastic idea. The Titans struggled against the best team in the league last week but are in a great spot to bounce back. Henry is the best pay-up running back on the slate.
WR CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings – $7,500; 16.2% Boom | FanDuel – $8,200; 14.1% Boom
Pairing Amon-Ra St. Brown with Jared Goff is a great idea, as the Lions hold the Top Stack Rating on DraftKings this week. However, the Cowboys offense with a slate-high 30.75 team total is a good way to spread the love around. One way to do that is with wide receiver CeeDee Lamb who has the third-highest target share in the league at 29.8%. Now that quarterback Dak Prescott is healthy, this offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders. Lamb has the third-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and fourth highest on FanDuel this week.
The Cowboys team total is 4 points higher than the Lions who have the second highest this week. They are monstrous 17.5-point home favorites against the Texans who hold the worst record in the league at 1-10-1. Their defense is allowing the fifth-most yards per game this season, and Lamb should be able to torch this secondary. Game script may lead the Cowboys to running the ball more frequently, but Lamb still has potential to have an incredible game through the air. The Cowboys have scored 40 or more points in three of their last five games, and Lamb has four touchdowns over that time. There are several really good wide receivers on this slate, but getting exposure to someone on this Cowboys offense will be critical in tournaments.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs
DraftKings – $7,600; 13.5% Boom | FanDuel – $8,000; 18.5% Boom
Yet again Travis Kelce is by far the best tight end on the slate. Plenty of ownership will flock to T.J. Hockenson in the Vikings and Lions game environment, but sticking with Kelce is the best bet at a ceiling game. After back-to-back mediocre games from Kelce standards, he has a chance to get back on track with a great performance this week against the Broncos. This may be a tough place to play against a formidable defense, but Kelce still has by far the highest boom percentage for tight ends on both sites this week. He specifically looks great on FanDuel where he has the second highest on the slate.
The Chiefs suffered a close 3-point loss last week against the Bengals but are nearly double-digit road favorites against the Broncos. They are tied with the Lions for the second-highest team total on the slate at 26.75 points. The Chiefs wide receivers have disappointed in a big way this season, which has led to an increase in production for Kelce. He leads the team in all receiving categories including targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. Kelce’s 12 touchdowns this season through 12 games is already a career high. Being Patrick Mahomes’ top target holds an insane amount of value regardless of the matchup.
NFL DFS Picks Week 14 Busts/Fades
QB Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings – $5,700; 49.3% Bust | FanDuel – $7,200; 52.9% Bust
After being one of the top quarterback options in Week 13, Trevor Lawrence is rating as one of the worst quarterback options on this 10-game slate. One of the best parts about DFS is a player can look incredible one week and very bad the next. Priced very close to Jared Goff on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Lawrence has one of the highest bust percentages on the slate. After failing to attack one of the worst defenses in the league, Lawrence will have his hands full with the Titans defense that ranks 12th in total DVOA this season. They are worse against the pass, but this is still a tough spot to back Lawrence.
The Jaguars are 4-point road underdogs with an implied total of only 18.5 points. They have the fourth-worst Top Stack Rating on FanDuel and the seventh worst on DraftKings among all 20 teams this week. With such a low game total, it is hard to see anyone on the Jaguars side being relevant for tournaments. It sure won’t be Lawrence who has thrown for over 300 yards just twice all season. Lawrence ranks 14th in total yards passing and 17th in QBR. Despite improving from his rookie season, he still is a long ways away from being one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league. The price is nice, but not the production.
RB Dalvin Cook – Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings – $7,300; 66.1% Bust | FanDuel – $8,700; 48.6% Bust
Nick Chubb continues to rate out as one of the worst running back plays on the slate, he’s been included here enough recently. Instead, Dalvin Cook is a fade in the best game of the slate. Cook is especially bad on FanDuel where he is the second-most expensive running back on the slate with the second-highest bust percentage among the top tier options. Despite leading the league in yards rushing and having a respectable 4.7 yards per attempt, Cook has failed to top 100 yards on the ground in 10 of the Vikings 12 games this season. His receiving work has also dipped considerably in their new offense.
The Lions have given up a league-high 402.2 yards per game, but they have been way better in recent weeks. Overall, their defense ranks 25th in rush DVOA, and they have given up 149.7 yards per game. In the Vikings new offense under Head Coach Kevin O’Connell, running the ball has been an afterthought. They rank third in pass rate this season and have peppered the ball into Justin Jefferson‘s hands as much as they can. This is a risky fade given the total, but expect the Vikings to attack the Lions through the air this week.
WR Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DraftKings – $6,700; 50.6% Bust | FanDuel – $7,500; 46.1% Bust
Fading a player who has received double-digit targets in six of his last seven games may come as a shock, but those targets are not producing many yards. The wide receiver fade this week is Chris Godwin. Despite leading the Buccaneers in receptions and targets, Godwin is averaging a career-low 9.5 yards per catch this season. He is being peppered at the line of scrimmage as an extension of the run game, but Godwin has really exploded in the yards category as frequently as past years. Godwin also only has two touchdowns receiving through 10 games which also isn’t very encouraging.
The Buccaneers travel to three time zones away to face the 49ers this week. This game has an extremely low total of 37.5 points, and it continues to drop each day. Having a slate-low 17-point implied team total, the Buccaneers offense looks awful to target this week. They have a 15 Top Stack Rating on DraftKings and 17 on FanDuel, which is easily one of the worst on the slate. The Buccaneers do have the highest pass rate in the league and Godwin is heavily involved, but this 49ers defense ranks second in total DVOA this season. This is simply not a good game to target in DFS this week.
TE George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers
DraftKings – $4,300; 55.8% Bust | FanDuel – $5,900; 56.7% Bust
Staying in that same game, George Kittle has been a non-factor most of the season for the 49ers. Outside of Travis Kelce, the tight end position has been a dumpster fire all season long. Kittle is on pace for the worst receiving numbers in his career, and the 49ers just lost quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for likely the entire season. Mr. Irrelevant rookie Brock Purdy will take his spot in a very difficult matchup against the Buccaneers who despite their struggles this season rank eighth in total defense DVOA. To add on to his tough season, Kittle has above a 55% bust percentage on both sites this week.
With no Garoppolo at quarterback in this matchup, Kittle may be asked to do more blocking this week to provide extra protection since the Buccaneers rank fourth in total sacks with 38. The 49ers offense ranks dead last on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Top Stack Rating. They may be 3.5-point home favorites against the Buccaneers, but this is not a spot to attack this 49ers offense. In his 10 games played this season, Kittle only has four where he topped double-digit DraftKings points. He only has 15 targets and 10 receptions in his last four games. Fade not only Kittle, but this entire game.
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