NFL DFS Stacks Week 14: Vikings at Top of the List

Week 14 is the last Sunday of the year that NFL team’s have byes, causing a reduced ten game DFS slate. The ten matchups that we do have on the board for this week’s Sunday main slate should create fairly condensed ownership percentages. Expect the Lions-Vikings to be very popular since it has the highest total on the slate at 51.5 points. On the other hand, there are games like Pittsburgh-Baltimore and San Francisco-Tampa Bay that have totals under 38 points, making them fairly unowned. The difference should create leverage opportunities in several spots. There is a lot to analyze to find the best NFL DFS stacks for Week 14.

Our Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is again quite bunched up at the top this week with four teams having top stack probabilities over 10.0%. This article will use the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to help identify both the top couple of teams in the overall projections and which lower owned teams may be worth deploying to gain leverage on the field. Let’s dive in to find the top opportunities for Week 14 based on where they stand in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections.

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Top Stacks for NFL Week 14 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Top Overall Week 14 DFS Stack: Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota is averaging fewer points than the Lions offense but they are also taking on a defense in Detroit that is ceding 27.0 points per game, the most in the league. While we can debate Kirk Cousins status as an elite quarterback, it doesn’t change the fact he’s in a great spot for a ceiling game this week. The Lions have allowed the most fantasy points this season to opposing quarterbacks and are third last in yards per pass attempt allowed.

Cousins may be slightly more expensive than the Lions Jared Goff, but he’s also the lower owned of the two quarterbacks from this game. In terms of pure upside, there’s also no doubt that pairing Cousins with Justin Jefferson provides access to a player with true slate breaking potential. Jefferson has the fourth-highest team target share in the league. He has scored 32.0 or more DraftKings points in a game five times this season.

We’ve recently seen TE TJ Hockenson get worked into this Vikings offense. Nevertheless, Jefferson still went off for 32.34 points against New England in Hockenson’s second game with Minnesota. There shouldn’t be any concerns about Jefferson’s true upside even with the presence of their new tight end. In terms of how we can approach the rest of a Vikings-Lions game stack, Hockenson makes sense as a second receiver to pair with Cousins and Jefferson. He has out targeted Jefferson in the red zone the last three weeks and now has a far better matchup than he did in Week 13 against the jets.

Minnesota might be ranked as a the top stack of the week, but Detroit is a top-five ranked stack, as well. It should be pretty easy to find a runback with one (or more) of their players. Amon Ra St. Brown will be popular against a Vikings secondary that is last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but D’Andre Swift — who had 111 yards and a TD, on 18 touches last week — is also viable and should come with less ownership.

With two teams projecting in the top five stacks in the Stokasti projections, this game has someone to target at nearly every position. Start with the obvious in Cousins and Jefferson and then build out from their. Be mindful to get in some potentially lower-owned Lions player as a way to keep your overall lineup ownership suppressed.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 14.1%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 10.2%

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Top Low-Owned Week 14 DFS Stack: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are coming off a dud performance against the Bengals last week and now face a Broncos team who is ranked fourth in defensive pass DVOA on the season. Obviously this isn’t the most ideal setup for Patrick Mahomes, but it’s also not one he can’t overcome. The Chiefs pass defense is now bottom ten in defensive DVOA, which could help make this game a far better fantasy environment than currently advertised.

The Chiefs deserve some respect this week as a tournament option as they’re ranked sixth in the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool. That’s just a percentage point behind the Lions, who will certainly be one of the heaviest owned teams on this slate. Mahomes will get rostered, but he’s likely to be available at about half the ownership of Jared Goff. It’s also interesting to note that Travis Kelce is trending with moderate ownership despite coming into this game ranked sixth in the NFL in targets with 108. That’s 22 more than the next highest tight end.

Juju Smith-Schuster should also offer good boom or bust appeal. He’s likely to be less than 5% rostered but his output this year has proven he has the ceiling to be consider in just these kinds of spots. Schuster doesn’t have much competition for targets in the slot and will be up against a Broncos secondary who has allowed five TDs to opposing WRs over their last four games.

Don’t shy away from the Chiefs in large fields this week. They have a downward trending defense and multiple options in the pass game who could post big days if this game comes in with some early scoring.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 8.2%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 5.9%

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Top Tournament Leverage Week 14 DFS Stack: Cleveland Browns

The Browns are +5.5 underdogs this week against the Bengals, who are getting steamed up this week for DFS. Joe Burrow is trending with ownership levels above 11% in the Stokastic projections making this a potentially great spot to look to the other side of the ball and consider Deshaun Watson, who is trending towards being less than 3% rostered.

Watson was terrible in his first start with the Browns but considering he hadn’t played football in over two years it’s not a shocking result. He should be better in game two and there’s plenty of reasons to think he’ll be dropping back more than 23-times in this game. The Browns give up a ton of yards to opposing RBs and, with Joe Mixon back, we should expect more late game throwing Watson this week Teams against the Bengals are also averaging 34.3 drop backs over the last three weeks, 10th most in the league.

If we are using the lower-owned Watson for leverage, stacking him in this spot is quite easy as well. Watson loves to look for the downfield homerun play and targeted Amari Cooper last week on nine of his 23 passes. Cooper and Watson didn’t gel for any massive plays but they’re taking on a Bengals secondary who did allow multiple catches of 20+ yards last week to Kansas City. Donavan Peoples-Jones (who converted all three of his targets from Watson last week into catches) is also interesting this week at under $5,000 on DraftKings and is trending with almost no ownership.

Targeting the Bengals run game with Joe Mixon and then coming back with Watson will give you a unique way to build around this game. With everyone focused on Joe Burrow, don’t be shocked if the game flow actually makes this game a better fantasy environment spot for Watson and his receivers, who will have almost no ownership in large field tournaments.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 2.5%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 2.5%

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