NBA Player Props, Betting Odds & Picks | Ben Simmons O/U 7.5 Points

It’s incredible to think that we are already a full week into the NBA Postseason. It sure has been a fun seven days of basketball, though, with all kinds of great games and remarkable individual performances. With four games on the Saturday slate, today’s NBA player props column is filled to the brim once again. Read on for five NBA betting picks to consider, including a prop for Philadelphia 76ers star Ben Simmons.

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Yesterday’s NBA Player Props Recap

After sweeping the board on Thursday, we came up short on two of our three featured NBA player props for Friday’s games. Alec Burks only hit a single 3-pointer to nix our play on the over for 1.5 makes. It wasn’t a bad handicap, as he still attempted five shots from beyond the arc. Some nights, they just don’t go in. Kyrie Irving also foiled our picks by exceeding 4.5 rebounds. Luckily, we were at least able to get a winner, with Reggie Jackson getting the starting nod for the Clippers and cruising over 1.5 total assists. With that, we set our sights on the huge weekend of basketball ahead!

NBA Betting Prediction: NBA Player Props | May 29

Jrue Holiday (MIL) Under 18.5 Points

Point guard Jrue Holiday was the major offseason acquisition that the Bucks were hoping could help put them over the top as a legitimate championship contender. Three games into the playoffs, and he has delivered. Holiday has scored in double figures in all three games of Milwaukee’s First Round series against the Miami Heat thus far. He also distributed 15 and 12 assists in Games 2 and 3, respectively. It’s not easy to go against Holiday on the NBA player props front right now, but playing under 18.5 points for Saturday’s game is worth considering.

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The line is nearly a full point more than the 17.7 he averaged this season. Although the Bucks have dominated this series to date, this is still a Heat defense that ranked sixth in points allowed per game. Jimmy Butler may go down, but he is bound to rally the troops to make sure it isn’t a clean sweep. And, if Miami does roll over, perhaps Holiday will play fewer minutes in a blowout scenario. For all of these reasons, under 18.5 points makes for a solid play.

Austin Rivers (DEN) Under 2.5 Rebounds

It’s highly doubtful that many NBA betting analysts predicted Austin Rivers having the massive impact he did in the Nuggets’ Game 3 win. In 37 minutes of action, the 28-year-old scored 21 points, grabbed 4 rebounds, and dished a pair of assists for good measure. Mind you, those 37 minutes were 17 more than Rivers played in Game 2 of this series. It’s no secret that Denver is scrambling in what is an injury-depleted backcourt. That being said, expecting Rivers to log that many minutes again on Saturday is simply foolish. In addition to the inconsistent minutes, Rivers also only averaged 2.2 boards per game this season. With a healthy profit possible thanks to the plus-money odds, looking under 2.5 rebounds for Rivers today appears to be a worthwhile NBA player props option.

Ben Simmons (PHI) Under 7.5 Assists

Speaking of plus-money odds on unders, the Awesemo NBA Player Props Tool is loving the 26% Expected ROI on taking under 7.5 total assists for Ben Simmons today. The 6’11” point guard has been distributing the ball like crazy in the NBA Playoffs thus far. After handing out a whopping 15 assists in Game 1 of the 76ers’ series against the Washington Wizards, he had another 8 in Game 2. With Philadelphia clearly being the better team and the Wizards not exactly being known for their defense, what makes this under worthy of including in our Saturday NBA betting picks?

Ben Simmons

The law of averages is critical to this handicap. Simmons averaged 6.9 assists per game over the course of the season. While that is certainly an impressive mark, it is notably over half an assist short of Saturday’s NBA player props line. Regression to the mean is likelier than not in this scenario. The fact that we are getting odds as profitable as +115 to make such a wager is something an astute bettor cannot pass up.

Dillon Brooks Over (MEM) 3.5 Rebounds

Dillon Brooks has taken the NBA world by storm with his play in the postseason thus far. After getting it done at both ends in Game 1 with 31 points, 7 rebounds and a pair of steals, the 25-year-old scored another 23 in the Grizzlies’ Game 2 loss. Unfortunately, his rebounding took a hit on Wednesday, as he finished with just 2 boards. In reality, that total was a whole lot closer to Brooks’ season average of 2.9 rebounds per game.

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In a quirky statistic, Brooks has now alternated back and forth between totals of 2 and 7 rebounds for the last five games. If that trend holds on Saturday, this sets up to be a big game for him on the glass. While he may not get to 7 rebounds tonight, he only needs 4 to clear the NBA player props line of 3.5. The +126 odds are plenty high enough to take a shot on the over.

Mike Conley (UTA) Under 2.5 Made 3-Pointers

We round out today’s column with an NBA player props lean on Mike Conley to finish under 2.5 made 3-pointers. Although he has connected on three triples in each of the first two games of this series, Conley attempted just five in Game 2 compared to 11 in Game 1 last weekend. The return of Donovan Mitchell to the Jazz lineup undoubtedly impacted Conley’s shot selection. The 33-year-old will undoubtedly be amped up for Game 3 on Saturday as he returns to the Memphis Grind House, where he spent the majority of his career. That being said, he is surrounded by a host of sharpshooters and doesn’t figure to attempt all that many triples himself. Five or six total attempts seems logical. Unless he manages to connect on better than 50% as he did in Game 2, Conley will finish with fewer than 2.5 makes.

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