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NFL Betting Picks: Saturday Wildcard Playoff Football NFL Odds
NFL Prop Bet: T.Y. Hilton Under 54.5 Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings, as of Thursday 10:00 a.m. EST)Â
Despite all the bumps along the way, the NFL has managed to complete the regular season on time, which means playoff football is upon us. Due to the additional Wild Card team, we a triple header on both Saturday and Sunday to get things started. To kick things off on Saturday, the Colts take on the No. 2 seed Bills. Vegas favors Buffalo at home by 6.5 points, and the game has a 51.5-point total.
For Saturday’s NFL prop, I am going to T.Y. Hilton. He has a number of receiving lines, one of which is his receiving prop of 54.5 yards. Despite being a talented player, I am going under in this spot and believe he could be in for a quiet day. First off, traveling to Buffalo instead of being in a dome is never ideal, and then we go to the potential matchup awaiting him. Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White should be covering Hilton in many situations on Saturday, and he is one of the best in the league.
The other issue for Hilton is the Colts tend to distribute the ball around, leading to a flat target share for their skill position players. He does lead Indianapolis in targets with 93, but three other Colts have 60 targets, which means several guys could emerge as the target leader Saturday. In addition, the Colts are top 10 in rushing percentage, so they could keep the ball on the ground throughout, especially if they keep the game close.
The price is a true toss up over on OddsShopper, with the best line being -115 for under 54.5 yards receiving. Given the factors of a tough matchup in a cold road stadium, there are a lot of ways Hilton could be kept in check . If Buffalo can limit the big plays, that will force him to catch a bunch of catches to push the over, and I don’t see that happening against White and this Bills secondary.
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