With a trade deadline also looming on the brink of 3 p.m. ET, we will mitigate one fewer pre-lock headache as we seek to solidify our NBA betting picks. While navigating the player props on OddsShopper, we’ll cross-reference relevant player stats, rotations and trends to aid in identifying the best NBA odds on the evening. Tonight we will focus our attention on Tobias Harris and R.J. Barrett for NBA betting picks.
NBA Betting Picks & Player Prop Bets | March 25
R.J. Barrett OVER 3.5 Assists (+140)
Following the 131-113 drubbing put down by the Knicks on Tuesday, New York squares off with the reeling Wizards once again. While Julius Randle had a smash game in scoring, the rebounds weren’t where we needed them to be (a lofty 11.5). Yet we are revisiting the matchup here, this time with R.J. Barrett‘s prop of 3.5 assists and a generous +140 on the over. Considering Barrett’s recent assist production and his opponent, the plus-money NBA odds at a 40% bonus garners enough attention for our betting picks.
Barrett has seen a rise across nearly all metrics of on-court production, averaging 17.3 points, 3.0 assists, and 6.1 rebounds in 33.8 minutes per game while trimming the turnovers down to 1.9 from 2.2 last year. Needing 4 assists this evening, Barrett has a feasible chance of success, having just hung 5 assists on this same Washington team two nights ago.
While his 13.9% assist rate 3.0 assist average leave much to be desired, his numbers have ticked up since the All-Star break — up to 14.4% and 3.3 in his past seven games. Barrett’s assist totals since the All-Star break, for sake of reference: 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 4 and 5. The return of Elfrid Payton to the starting lineup hasn’t hurt matters either, as Barrett’s assist average takes a jump when playing alongside Payton, from 2.73 to 3.38 assists in 36 minutes logged. A repeat matchup against a Washington opponent that allows a lot of assists makes the plus-money odds that much more appealing.
Washington runs at a 104.79 pace, the league’s fastest per game, which provides a “more the merrier” situation for the Knicks. New York is the polar opposite, running at a 96.54 pace (slowest in the NBA). While the Wizards surrender around the league average with 24.4 assists per game, 4.3 of those assists on average are allowed to opposing shooting guards, which in a drastically paced-up spot for Barrett provides added opportunity. Getting this line at +140 odds on 4 assists for Barrett is a marked value and easily worthy of consideration for Thursday evening.
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Tobias Harris OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+100)
The Lakers are operating as a shell of their former selves, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both sidelined for the foreseeable future. Playing host to the 76ers won’t make life any easier, as Tobias Harris and company are holding up just fine sans Joel Embiid, winning nine of their last 10 games. Seeing as how drastically different the Lakers perform without their superstars, their rebounding has fallen off a cliff as of late. And luckily for our purposes, tonight Harris has a player prop of 7.5 rebounds at +100 odds at PointsBet.
Harris has consistently improved his rebounding over the years. He is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game and an 11.1% rebound rate this year, up from 6.9 and 9.9% last season, and he is doing so with less playing time (34.0 minutes per game to 34.3 last season). Harris’ rebounding with Embiid off the court has seen a boost of 1 rebound per game on average, up to 8.08 per 36 minutes. In Embiid’s recent absence Harris has increased that average even further, hauling in 8.7 rebounds per game with a 12.3% rebound rate over the past six. Drawing this lackluster Lakers unit as his next opponent may bump that rebounding average up even further.
Without Davis and Lebron, the Lakers are mailing it in across a number of categories, and rebounding is a lead candidate for worst among them all. Though they are allowing 41.8 rebounds per game (fourth best), the Lakers without Davis and James have allowed 52 rebounds per game (second worst) and have a 42.4% rebound rate (also second worst). Getting this player prop on Harris at even money makes for fantastic NBA odds on Harris tonight.
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