The titanic 10-game Tuesday slate of NBA DFS action has already seen multiple major shakeups, and it is only the early afternoon. The Pelicans and Trail Blazers are trading a handful of formerly slate-relevant players, including guards C.J. McCollum, Josh Hart, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker as well as forward Larry Nance. The slate also lost a major pay-up option, with James Harden unable to take the court in what would have been a featured spot with the team’s other stars out. Harden’s absence makes the Nets an interesting target for value, but cheap quality upside plays will not be difficult to come by on this slate, and there are more pieces of news still to shake loose. The board in Vegas features two games totaled above 230 points, both of which come in the late-night block of contests. The Bucks vs Lakers game has Milwaukee favored by just 3.5 in Los Angeles, and the game is carrying a 232.5-point total. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves and Kings will be tipping off at the same time in Sacramento, in a contest that has the visitors favored by five and a ripe slate-leading 234-point game total. The clear approach to tonight’s slate is a stars-and-scrubs build, given the extreme values available already.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With ten games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top plays with positive leverage on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Jaxson Hayes: DraftKings $5,500 — PF/C | FanDuel $5,500 — PF
With several pieces of the Pelicans shipping out in the trade, big man Jaxson Hayes is expected to start and see significant minutes at the power forward spot. Hayes has averaged 29 minutes a night over the team’s three most recent games but just 15.9 minutes for the season. Across all situations he averages 1.03 fantasy points per minute, and he has encouragingly leaped to 1.19 in the recent run of extended minutes over the last three. He should get attention on both sites, but as of the early afternoon the field is trailing the quality of the play on both sites. Hayes has a 68.9% true shooting percentage and a 12.2% rebounding rate, but he kicks in just a 4.7% assist share. He also averages 1.2 stocks per game, and 2.6 per-36, helping pad his overall fantasy points production.
Hayes has eligibility at both the power forward and center spots on the DraftKings slate, where he costs $5,500. He is the most frequently optimal player at any position by more than seven percentage points on the site, but the field is nowhere near appropriate ownership as of the most recent Awesemo tools update. Hayes is projected for just 16.2% popularity so far, leaving an excellent 11.5 leverage score on the top play by optimal lineup rate. Hayes is almost definitely going to be more popular than that by the time lock arrives, but even at efficient ownership, he should be worth playing tonight. The productive big man has an excellent 44.23% boom score probability, the fifth-highest mark on the slate for his fair price. The options above Hayes by boom score include primarily value pieces, of which Justise Winslow leads the way with a $3,000 price tag and a 70.44% boom score probability. After Winslow come three more options from the Trail Blazers back court, followed by Hayes, who sits one spot ahead of less expensive Houston big man Alperen Sengun, who is also viable at power forward and center for just $4,500. Hayes can be rostered alongside Sengun for an easy base of value production, and using them does not preclude the option of playing a premium center. The DraftKings slate sees a lot of flexibility of lineup construction this evening, Hayes is under-owned and his 33.6-point median projection is already a long way toward a ceiling score.
On the FanDuel slate, Hayes costs the same $5,500 but loses his center eligibility. As just a power forward, Hayes is still one of the top options on the slate. He checks in second overall with a 31.4% optimal lineup appearance rate, trailing only teammate Brandon Ingram, who tops out at a 34.9% mark. Hayes is inexpensive, Ingram is an additional $2,300 on top of his salary, though the two play different positions on the blue site, where Ingram is eligible at just small forward and there is no any-forward spot. Hayes is projected for a 34.51-point median projection on the FanDuel slate. He has an outstanding 48.89% boom score probability. That mark slips in .05 percentage points ahead of Ingram, but the Pelicans duo is leapfrogged on the board by Portland guard Anfernee Simons, who has a 51.43% boom score mark against his $6,500 salary. Hayes is one of the primary big men on the blue site tonight, among eligible power forwards he stands 10 percentage points ahead of the field by optimal lineup rate and 13 ahead of the field by boom score percentage, but the public is leaving him at a 6.8 leverage score. The 24.6% ownership projection seems likely to climb, but it should be a strong play getting to him regardless, provided that the playing time projection holds and even better value does not emerge.
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Robert Williams: DraftKings $7,200 — C | FanDuel $7,500 — PF/C
Seemingly having graduated from a play to be focused on in the absence of others, Celtics big man Robert Williams has emerged as a viable anytime play across the NBA DFS industry. The center has averaged 29.7 minutes per game this season and he has played 31.1 minutes a night over the team’s last 10 games. Williams has been highly productive across all situations this season, on average he puts up 1.09 fantasy points per minute on just 11.2% usage, and he has been at a 1.18 rate over the last three games. Williams has a 74.7% true shooting percentage and a 15.1% rebounding rate this season, and he adds an excellent 3.7 stocks per-36, helping to fill out his fantasy point-scoring potential. Williams is a strong contender for a fair mid-range asking price on both sites tonight. He can be targeted aggressively at positive leverage as well.
On FanDuel, Williams checks in as the slate’s 19th most frequently optimal player at any position at 14.4%, the sixth-best option at either of his eligible positions. With flexibility between power forward and center, Williams has upside, but there are a number of viable options at each position. The public is projected to be including Williams in just 9.6% of their lineups, which leaves a highly targetable 4.8 leverage score on the potentially key player. Williams checks in with a 27.71% probability of hitting his required ceiling score, the 14th-highest mark on the board. He is also one of a limited set of options from the top shelf that also comes with positive leverage, which adds significant appeal to the play, as he can easily help differentiate lineups without the sacrifice of a strong median projection – Williams is forecast for a 38.13-point night on the blue site – or of quality probability metrics. Williams is an underappreciated mid-range play on the FanDuel slate tonight.
The Celtics big man lands lower by overall upside on the DraftKings slate, where he appears in the optimal lineup in just 7.4% of simulated slates. That mark still doubles up his projected ownership, leaving the $7,200 center at a quality 3.9 leverage score, indicating that the public is behind on the play on this site as well. Williams gains ground against the field with his 20.97% boom score probability on the site, he has a 35.3-point median projection, and at low single-digit ownership he is a viable mix-in option who can differentiate a lineup. Williams joins a handful of centers with positive leverage on the DraftKings slate. He is not a standout option on the site, but he is also not a bad play. It is easy to get well beyond the field’s projected 3.5% ownership without risking much in lineup shares.
Dennis Smith Jr.: DraftKings $3,100 — PG | FanDuel $4,500 — PG
Following the departure of quality veteran CJ McCollum and before the new pieces of the Portland rotation arrive, there will be an opportunity for low-cost Dennis Smith Jr. to step into a primary backcourt role temporarily. Smith has been very hit-and-miss even in quality situations over the years, but he is capable of producing fantasy points at a cheap price on the right night. Smith has averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season, down slightly from the 1.0 that he posted on a higher 19.1% usage rate last year. With the opportunities slipping to just 17.6% usage in his small 17 minutes a night role, Smith’s high points are few and far between this year. The guard posted a 22.4-point FanDuel score in 20 minutes in the team’s most recent outing, and he has been a 0.85 per-minute player over the team’s three most recent games. Smith is projected for 22.9 minutes this evening, and he comes at a low cost with quality probability marks on one site; he is just a low-end mix-in play on the other.
On FanDuel, Smith is almost an afterthought at a $4,500 price. He still lands in the optimal lineup in 6.6% of simulated slates for the blue site, but he is not a prime target at the point guard position. Smith is carrying a 1.9% ownership projection, which is what provides the appeal. At such a low public exposure total, an outburst of a scoring night could be tournament winning. As long as the unlikely nature of the play is understood, it is fine to roster Smith in extended tournament shares. He has a quality 4.7 leverage score on the FanDuel slate tonight. Smith is also carrying a 22.75% boom score probability against his 24.52-point median projection, suggesting that there is underappreciated upside, even at the higher relative cost. Smith can be rostered beyond the field’s projected ownership total with ease on FanDuel; even 10% would not be a mistake in 150 tournament lineups.
Smith is projected for nearly 10 times the public popularity on the DraftKings slate, checking in with a 21.1% ownership share. That mark comes courtesy of a $3,100 salary at the point guard position on the DraftKings slate. At the low price, Smith has an actionable 49.76% boom score probability, the second highest on the entire DraftKings slate. The point guard is projected for a 24-point median score, which would basically be enough at nearly the minimum price, but he is blasting through to his required ceiling roughly half the time, making him an excellent target. Smith has a -0.7 leverage score that can be ignored at this price. If he manages a ceiling score, a tournament win is in play with Smith in the lineup.
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