With last night’s three-game ugliness out of the way, it’s time to get back to reality with a meaty nine-game affair Friday night. The daily fantasy basketball gods are smiling on us with a solid list of stars and value plays on the board,. Hopefully they keep up when it comes to late-breaking news. With nine games, we’ll be looking at the key building blocks for tonight’s potential optimal lineup as well as a few oddball pivots. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.
As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).
Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders
These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Cedi Osman – Cleveland Cavaliers
DraftKings — $4,800 – SF/PF | FanDuel — $4,200 — SF
The Cavaliers will be without several rotation pieces again tonight, including Andre Drummond, Taurean Prince and Larry Nance Jr., the latter of whom remains out until later in the season. The void in the frontcourt should create a nice opportunity for the inexpensive Osman. Osman is no stranger to daily fantasy basketball players, as he habitually works his way into lineups when there are key Cavs out for the night. With 0.80 fantasy points per minute, Osman simply needs time and a modest bit of good fortune to pay off his salary. In 192 minutes on the court without at least the three mentioned players, Osman has a solid 23.0% usage rate.
On FanDuel Osman slots in as one of our two small forward options, and he provides a significant salary savings at the position. For such a large slate, it is arguable that Osman is over-owned, as reflected by his -17.5 leverage score. He has a very strong boom-score probability of 36%, and he appears in 22.1% of optimal lineups, but the ownership is certainly concerning on a volatile play. All things considered, Osman is more likely a building block for the slate than a fade, but if the ownership starts creeping up further, it could make sense to duck under the field on him at least.
On DraftKings Osman slides around the board between the power forward and small forward spots, adding utility despite the higher price. He slots into 16.1% of optimal lineups in DraftKings simulations and will not be nearly as popular, coming up with a -6.6 score. That is still not ideal, but it is far easier to get beyond the field with a modicum of safety remaining on this site than it is on the other. Osman provides a 20.5% boom-score probability and should be worked into rosters as a mix-and-match option at worst.
Paul George – Los Angeles Clippers
DraftKings — $4,700 – C / FanDuel — $5,000 – C
File this one firmly under “if he plays at all.” At this point in the day, we simply don’t know. Numerous Clippers are on the injured list, including Paul’s running mate Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum and Luke Kennard. Someone is going to have to play from that group for the Clippers to be in this contest at all, and George was upgraded Friday from out to questionable, an encouraging sign for a player who has missed more than two weeks.
George last played on Feb. 3 and has been nursing a foot injury, so the extent he sees a long run even if he plays is in question to a degree. Prior to the injury, George was averaging 24.4 real-life points in 34 minutes per game, seeing 28.2% usage and putting up a 23.4% rebounding rate and 30.8% assist rate. Those rates make George a prime daily fantasy basketball asset. He was at 1.22 fantasy points per minute prior to getting hurt, and he will be wildly under-owned if he does play.
On DraftKings George costs $8,600 and lands in the optimal lineup in just 4.8% of simulations. George has an 11.6% boom-score probability and a solid 3.5 leverage score, though he can only be rostered at the shooting guard or flex spot. George is an interesting ownership pivot at the position, if we have news in time.
On FanDuel George looks slightly better. His optimal-lineup rate jumps to 9.5% and his boom-score probability rises all the way to 16.0%, giving him some appeal as a tournament option. George is pulling essentially zero public ownership in our projections. It would be very easy to get beyond the field on him, which seems advisable if he plays.
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Nikola Vucevic – Orlando Magic
DraftKings — $9,900 — C / FanDuel — $9,700 — C
Vucevic is firmly on the daily fantasy basketball board once again. With the lingering absence of Aaron Gordon and injuries to numerous other rotation pieces, Vucevic should be in another all-you-can-eat situation. Over the team’s last five games, through a litany of injuries and absences, Vucevic has been the steadying presence in the middle for the Magic. Over the stretch he is averaging 24.8 real-life points in 35.7 minutes per game while leading the team with a 30% usage rate, a 37.7% rebounding rate and a 23.7% assist rate. Vucevic gets it done in numerous ways, helping pad out his fantasy stats beyond the excellent scoring ability. He remains too inexpensive on both sites while under $10,000 in this situation given his upside on his already-stellar average of 1.36 fantasy points per minute.
On FanDuel the singular center site, Vucevic ranks second to only Nikola Jokic by optimal-lineup rate, landing in the top build in 19.8% of Awesemo’s simulations. Vucevic is pricey, but nearly $900 less than the player above him, while not being nearly that far set apart in terms of probability of success. He maintains a strong 46.4% boom-score probability and his 2.1 leverage score makes this look like a very appealing pivot from the chalky top salary option at the position.
On DraftKings Vucevic lands just seventh with his 14.5% optimal-lineup rate, though part of that is because we can roster numerous other options at the position on the site. By Boom-score probability, Vucevic is still the third ranked player, coming in with a 32.5% likelihood. With the public not getting to him as much as they should, and heavier ownership on other top options, Vucevic looks like he’s up for at least one more good ride.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder
Since we rostered all of the Thunder’s selection of young and replacement level players in his absence, it just feels like we owe one to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at this point. Or maybe he owes us. Either way, we might be able to benefit, given the pricing and public popularity across both sites tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander is playing in his second game back, but allayed most concerns when he played a full 32:38 in his first game on Wednesday. Alexander put up a 6-14 shooting performance, scoring 22 real life points and adding three rebounds and six assists. He is the primary catalyst for everything the team does on the floor most nights, and he looks like a good option for daily fantasy basketball.
At $8,300, Gilgeous-Alexander is the third most expensive shooting guard on the FanDuel slate tonight. He lands in the optimal lineup in a leading 18.2% of simulations, however, and he will be slightly under-owned, creating a 2.5 leverage score that outpaces the most expensive player, Zach LaVine. Gilgeous-Alexander adds a 29.3% boom-score probability that also outstrips the more expensive options on the slate, he looks like an underappreciated source of potential upside tonight.
On DraftKings Gilgeous-Alexander looks strong as well. He lands in the optimal lineup in 14.4% of simulations, standing eighth among all eligible guards, but fifth among shooting guards on the site. His leverage score is the best among the group after Khris Middleton, and he lands a strong 20.9% boom-score probability with a median projection well over 40 DraftKings points. Given the lack of public attention, Gilgeous-Alexander should be a strong consideration for lineups tonight.
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What is with your Paul George position tag and price. what player did you really mean? Because he has probably never played center in the NBA or been that price tag